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2016  HMT-WPC Winter  Weather 2016  HMT-WPC Winter  Weather

2016 HMT-WPC Winter Weather - PowerPoint Presentation

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Uploaded On 2018-02-25

2016 HMT-WPC Winter Weather - PPT Presentation

Experiment 25 January 19 February 2016 Why Do We Have The Winter Weather Experiment WWE The WWE is not World Wrestling Entertainment although winter weather is always entertaining For 5 years we have brought together WFO forecasters researchers and the academic community to discuss i ID: 635883

snow winter snowfall weather winter snow weather snowfall wwe probabilistic 2016 day forecast watch experimental rate experiment data explore

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Presentation Transcript

Slide1

2016 HMT-WPC Winter Weather Experiment

25 January – 19 February 2016Slide2

Why Do We Have The Winter Weather Experiment (WWE)?The WWE is not World Wrestling Entertainment, although winter weather is always entertainingFor 5 years, we have brought together WFO forecasters, researchers, and the academic community to discuss improvements to winter forecastingOnce data sets and techniques are tested, we quickly put them in the hands of the operational forecasters here at WPCSeveral changes to operations have resulted from testing that has run through the WWE, including the snow-liquid ratio blend and changes to the Days 4-7 Winter OutlookSlide3

What Goes Into the WWE?The Winter Weather Experiment frames data and information that come from various sources:Funded proposals in which WPC’s experiment process is needed to satisfy R2O requirements and data or tool can benefit WPC’s operationsWPC partners, such as the Earth Systems Research Lab (ESRL) and university researchers, bring in new data sets and techniques to be evaluated for operational benefitsThe Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) offer new or updates to deterministic models and ensembles for testing (I asked them for models for my PPT, they said these gentlemen pose & photograph well)

Ideas from YOUSlide4

What’s New for 2016 in the WWE?Explore the Experimental HRRR and HRRR Ensemble for winter weather.Explore the utility of the parallel 3 km NAM Nest for winter weather.

Explore SPC’s OPRH ingredients-based technique for determining exceedance of snowfall rate thresholds.

Explore

the

prediction of convective mesoscale snow banding by using increased spatial and temporal resolution of convection-allowing models (CAMs). Explore Keith’s dynamic downscaling in the HRAM3 over terrain and around the Great Lakes for prediction of snow heavy snow bands.Create a Deterministic Snowfall Forecast for Day

1.

Create a probabilistic forecast for snowfall rates that may exceed a certain threshold (0.5”, 1”, 2”) per hour, and when this may occur over

that

Day 1

period.

In the Morning….

HRRR Ensemble probabilistic snowfall rate product

SPC’s OPRH Technique for Snowfall Rate PredictionSlide5

What’s New for 2016 in the WWE?In the Morning….our resulting experimental forecast will look a bit like this:

Experimental deterministic snowfall forecast with added probabilistic snowfall rate forecast over Day 1Slide6

What’s New for 2016 in the WWE?Examine the utility of the WPC Watch Collaborator tool at different probabilistic thresholds (30%, 50%, 80%)Utilize the WPC PWPF, and new probabilistic tools created from the SREF and GEFS Create an enhanced

probabilistic winter hazards impacts-based

product for Day 2 (or Day 3 depending on weather opportunity).

Encourage

collaboration among NCEP centers, WFOs, and NOAA research labs on winter weather forecast challengesIn the Afternoon….

Watch Collaborator

WPC Probabilities of Winter PrecipitationSlide7

What’s New for 2016 in the WWE?In the Afternoon….our resulting experimental forecast will look a bit like this:

Experimental probabilistic winter hazards product for Day 2 or Day 3

Begin with Watch Collaborator 30% likelihood of meeting/exceeding watch criteria for both snow and freezing rain

Use

probabilistic guidance and deterministic guidance to build levels of impact severity

Use

watch criteria CWA color-coded map as guidance for regional impact variability

Indicate

areas that will be impacted beyond reaching watch/warning criteria threshold:

moderate snow

heavy

snow

moderate icing

significant icing

high

windsSlide8

The Final Act: Verification

Participants Subjectively Evaluate Experimental Forecasts, Model Data, and Tools Seeking to Answer Science Questions and Discuss Operational ApplicationsSlide9

Sample Science QuestionsEvaluate the new hourly snowfall rate parameters from the Parallel 3 km NAM and the HRRR Time-lagged ensemble for predicting the probability of achieving thresholds of 0.5”, 1” or 2” of snowfall per hourEvaluate the utility of the dynamically-downscaled HRAM3 in predicting the location and intensity of convective snow bands over the inter-mountain west as compared to other high-resolution convection-allowing models by using Stage IV QPE and the NOHRSC 24-hour snow analysis as verification Evaluate the utility of using the 80% threshold of fraction of frozen precipitation from ensembles to identify snow as the predominate precipitation typeSlide10

2016 WWE Forecaster ParticipantsThe Lucky “Chosen Ones”Week 1: January 25-29

Mary

Beth Gerhardt

Week 2: February

1-5 Frank PereiraWeek 3: February 8-11 Dan Petersen

Week 4: February

16-19

Paul

Kocin

These guys have to show up, even if it’s like this….Slide11

Winter Weather Experiment FacilitatorsAsk Us Questions, Bring Us Ideas, Get Involved!Sarah Perfater

Ben Albright

Mike Bodner

Mark Klein