Governing Tree Disease Epidemics: - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Governing Tree Disease Epidemics:

Some policy lessons from the ramorum outbreak

Clive PotterCentre for Environmental PolicyImperial College LondonSlide2

The Story to DateAn evolving story, in which plant health authorities have struggled to keep up with a disease that has expanded its host range;Initial focus on eradication within the nursery trade has given way to a broader strategy of attempted containment focussed on woodland, historic gardens and commercial forestrySlide3

2003

Discovery of ‘new’ P.

kernoviae

pathogen in Cornwall

2008

P.k

pathogen identified in open heathland

2009

Discovery of

P.r

on Japanese larch in SW

2011

Confirmation of

P.r. on European larch

Summer 2001

P.ramorum

pathogen first identified on nursery stock Slide4

The policy challengeComplicated science and an evidence base that has co-evolved with the disease system Many stakeholders involved, some of whom may be ignorant, apathetic or misinformed Presence of difficult to navigate conflicts between commercial interests and the wider public goodSlide5

We’ve been here beforeThe 1970s Dutch Elm Disease outbreak, while biologically v different, is an obvious point of historical reference;

In this case, delays in identification, Treasury reluctance to fund, confusion regarding liability and the decision to devolve management onto poorly resourced local authorities fatally compromised the policy responseSlide6

Snapshots of the UK Dutch Elm Disease Epidemic

1968

1970

1972

1979

Presence of live infected elm trees represented in yellow. Red indicates dead elm trees present. Black shading shows that over 60% of elm population had been wiped out by 1979

Mounting public reports of dead and dying elms reach the Advisory Service at the Forestry Commission

DED outbreaks identified in three locations in southern England

First FC DED survey published shows dramatic extent of DED

DED (LA) Order 1971 revoked as deemed to be ineffective

1973:

Paper identifying origin of aggressive form published in

Nature

Idea of a regional

cordon sanitaire

proposed for southern England

1974:

Order restricting movement of diseased elms introduced and (LA) Order reintroduced

Initial government response to outbreak is a voluntary sanitation felling campaign

Criticism of how outbreak being handled lead to calls for legislation

October 1971:

DED (Local Authorities) Order 1971 gave powers to 50 authorities to enter land and inspect elm trees and to take steps to prevent the spread of the disease

Meanwhile, DED continues its relentless northwards spread …Slide7

Lessons to be LearnedBy comparison, overall management of ramorum outbreak has been better:

rapid, cross-cutting institutional response extensive stakeholder involvement excellent work of inspectors on the ground

But subsequent spread confirms the cardinal lesson of DED: that tree diseases are very difficult (and costly) to contain once established in the wider environment ...Slide8

The Bigger PictureTree diseases threats to rural landscapes, urban trees and ecosystem services likely to grow with increasing volumes of horticultural trade;

But WTO disciplines and Single Market imperatives mean that scope for restricting (as against better regulating) this trade is v limited; So, even with ever more refined risk assessment tools, improved inspections and better surveillance, policymakers typically forced on to the back hoofSlide9

Future Prospects

On other hand, recent review of the EU’s Plant Health Regime has brought limitations of the plant passporting system and other systemic weaknesses to attention of DGSANCO;

Defra’s new Tree Health and Plant Biosecurity Action Plan suggests plant health issues may in the ascendancy; First inklings of a broader public debate about the hidden economic costs of the global trade in plants?