2020 Election Toolbox A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections October 2020 GCSAA Government Affairs Keys to the 2020 presidential election SOURCE US News World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New
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2020 Election Toolbox A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections
October 2020 GCSAA Government Affairs<br>
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Keys to the 2020 presidential election SOURCE US News & World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New York Times, Vox, FiveThirtyEight, Washington Post. ZACHARY GOLDSTIEN 5/26/20 Shifting demographics in key states
The GOP electorate is more older and white, while the voting population grows younger and more diverse
The growing Hispanic population in key swing states such as Arizona and Florida could determine the election Suburban districts
Trump’s support in suburban districts has decreased since his inauguration
Democrats’ performance in the suburbs was a key reason for their success in the 2018 midterms Campaigning in a pandemic
Trump has restarted his large campaign rallies, while Biden has opted for smaller, less frequent events
Democrats have shifted to digital and phone banking campaigns, while Republicans have largely maintained door-knocking GOTV efforts<br>
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AS OF SEPTEMBER 29, 2020 Biden consistently polls ahead of Trump in national polls and is likely to win the popular vote Head-to-head general election polls AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS SOURCE Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post, Monmouth University. 9/29/20<br>
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Key swing states will decide the election SOURCE National Journal; Cook Political Report ALICE JOHNSON 9/28/20 18 16 16 4 16 11 10 6 NE-02: 1 ME-02: 1 EC votes Trump needs in addition to Solid/Likely: 145 EC votes Biden needs in addition to Solid/Likely: 58 Lean Republican: 38 Toss Up: 85 Lean Democrat: 78<br>
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Biden currently leads polling in most swing states Head-to-head general election polls by state AS OF SEPTEMBER 29, 2020 SOURCE FiveThirtyEight, The Cook Political Report. ASHLEY THIEME 9/29/20<br>
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How does a recession impact a president’s reelection bid? SOURCE CNN, New York Times ALICE JOHNSON 2/2/20<br>
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The Biden campaign vastly outraised the Trump campaign in August Principal campaign committee fundraising IN MILLIONS USD AS OF AUGUST 31, 2020 SOURCE FEC 9/29/20<br>
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SOURCE National Journal Research, Bully Pulpit. 9/29/20 Spending between Jan. 5, 2019 and Sept. 19, 2020 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ■ Facebook spending ■ Google spending Donald Trump
FACEBOOK LIKES
29.2 million
TWITTER FOLLOWERS
86.3 million
INSTAGRAM FOLLOWERS
22 million Joe Biden
FACEBOOK LIKES
2.7 million
TWITTER FOLLOWERS
9.7 million
INSTAGRAM FOLLOWERS
4.1 million Targeted Facebook spending by demographic ■ Male ■ Female ■ Unknown ■ 13-24 ■ 25-44 ■ 45-64 ■ 65+ Trump has spent more than double the amount that Biden’s campaign has on Facebook spending<br>
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2020 Election Toolbox A guide to the 2020 congressional elections.
October 2020 GCSAA Government Affairs<br>
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Keys to the 2020 Senate election SOURCE 270towin, The Cook Political Report, Politico. ASHLEY THIEME 09/29/20<br>
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Keys to the 2020 House election SOURCE 270towin, The Cook Political Report, Politico. ASHLEY THIEME 09/29/20<br>
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SOURCE US Senate. 2/2/20 Senators up for re-election In states won by the opposing party’s 2016 presidential candidate Democrats
Doug Jones (AL)
Jeanne Shaheen (NH)
Chris Coons (DE)
Cory Booker (NJ)
Dick Durbin (IL)
Tom Udall (NM)*
Ed Markey (MA)
Jeff Merkley (OR)
Gary Peters (MI)
Jack Reed (RI)
Tina Smith (MN)
Mark Warner (VA) Clinton Victory Trump Victory *Senators not seeking reelection in 2020 Republicans
Dan Sullivan (AK)
Jim Risch (ID)
Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS)
Lamar Alexander (TN)*
Martha McSally (AZ)
Joni Ernst (IA)
Steve Daines (MT)
Lindsey Graham (SC)
Tom Cotton (AR)
Pat Roberts (KS)*
Ben Sasse (NE)
John Cornyn (TX)
Cory Gardner (CO)
Mitch McConnell (KY)
Thom Tillis (NC)
Shelley Moore Capito (WV)
David Perdue (GA)
Bill Cassidy (LA)
Jim Inhofe (OK)
Mike Enzi (WY)*
Kelly Loeffler (GA)
Susan Collins (ME)
Mike Rounds (SD)<br>
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Republicans hold 8 out of 10 Senate seats most likely to flip party control HOTLINE’S POWER RANKINGS
1. Alabama:
Incumbent: Doug Jones (D)
Challenger: Former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R)
2. Colorado:
Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R)
Challenger: Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D)
3. Arizona:
Incumbent: Martha McSally (R)
Challenger: Veteran & retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D)
4. North Carolina:
Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R)
Challenger: Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D)
5. Maine:
Incumbent: Susan Collins (R)
Challenger: State House Speaker Sara Gideon (D)
Iowa — Joni Ernst (R)
Montana — Steve Daines (R)
Georgia — Kelly Loeffler (R)
Georgia — David Perdue (R)
Michigan — Gary Peters (D)
South Carolina — Lindsey Graham (R) IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL Hotline’s 2020 Senate power rankings ■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat
Outline indicates it is in top five states most likely to flip SOURCE US Senate. 2/2/20<br>
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Split ticket voting is on the decline in recent years Percent of House districts won by the opposite party for president DATA FROM THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION’S 2019 VITAL STATISTICS ON CONGRESS Possible reasons for the decrease:
Increased political polarization
Self-sorting of the population
The advantages of incumbency SOURCE US Senate. 2/2/20<br>
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SOURCE National Journal. 7/27/20 HOTLINE’S POWER RANKINGS TX-23: Rep. Will Hurd (R)*
OK-5: Rep. Kendra Horn (D)
SC-1: Rep. Joe Cunningham (D)
NM-2: Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D)
NY-22: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D)
GA-7: Rep. Rob Woodall (R)*
IA-1: Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D)
GA-6: Rep. Lucy McBath (D)
MN-7: Rep. Collin Peterson (D)
IA-3: Rep. Cindy Axne (D)
ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D)
TX-24: Rep. Kenny Marchant (R)*
NY-11: Rep. Max Rose (D)
CA-21: Rep. T.J. Cox (D)
PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R)
TX-7: Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D)
NJ-3: Rep. Andy Kim (D)
IL-13: Rep. Rodney Davis (R)
CA-48: Rep. Harley Rouda (D)
TX-22: Rep. Pete Olson (R)* ■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL Hotline’s 2020 House power rankings * Incumbent not seeking reelection in 2020 Democrats hold 14 of the 20 most likely House seats to flip, but will likely retain their majority<br>
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National GOP committees have raised about $195 million more than their Democratic counterparts 5 3 2 3 5 2 SOURCE FEC 9/29/20 Total receipts by national party PACs AS OF AUGUST 31, 2020 ■ Democratic PAC ■ Republican PAC<br>
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2020 Election Toolbox A guide to the 2020 gubernatorial elections.
October 2020 GCSAA Government Affairs<br>
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Keys to 2020 gubernatorial races SOURCE The Cook Political Report, 270towin. 12/13/19<br>
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There are only two open seats up for election in 2020 ■ Dem incumbent (3) ■ GOP incumbent (6)
■ Dem open (1) ■ GOP open (1) SOURCE The Cook Political Report 12/13/19 2020 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status<br>
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Total receipts in 2020 governor races by state (in millions of dollars) AS OF MOST RECENT FILING PERIOD *Denotes incumbent
Displays receipts for front-runners Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) has raised over $19 million IN MO MT NH ND UT VT WA WV DE NC SOURCE Indiana Election Division, Missouri Ethics Commission, CERS Montana, North Carolina State Board of Elections, North Dakota Secretary of State, Utah Disclosures, Vermont Elections Divisions Campaign Finance, Washington Public Disclosure Commission, West Virginia Secretary of State. ASHLEY THIEME 9/29/20<br>
