2020 Election Toolbox A guide to the 2020

Transcript:2020 Election Toolbox A guide to the 2020:
2020 Election Toolbox A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections October 2020 GCSAA Government Affairs Keys to the 2020 presidential election SOURCE US News & World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New York Times, Vox, FiveThirtyEight, Washington Post. ZACHARY GOLDSTIEN 5/26/20 Shifting demographics in key states The GOP electorate is more older and white, while the voting population grows younger and more diverse The growing Hispanic population in key swing states such as Arizona and Florida could determine the election Suburban districts Trump’s support in suburban districts has decreased since his inauguration Democrats’ performance in the suburbs was a key reason for their success in the 2018 midterms Campaigning in a pandemic Trump has restarted his large campaign rallies, while Biden has opted for smaller, less frequent events Democrats have shifted to digital and phone banking campaigns, while Republicans have largely maintained door-knocking GOTV efforts AS OF SEPTEMBER 29, 2020 Biden consistently polls ahead of Trump in national polls and is likely to win the popular vote Head-to-head general election polls AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS SOURCE Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post, Monmouth University. 9/29/20 Key swing states will decide the election SOURCE National Journal; Cook Political Report ALICE JOHNSON 9/28/20 18 16 16 4 16 11 10 6 NE-02: 1 ME-02: 1 EC votes Trump needs in addition to Solid/Likely: 145 EC votes Biden needs in addition to Solid/Likely: 58 Lean Republican: 38 Toss Up: 85 Lean Democrat: 78 Biden currently leads polling in most swing states Head-to-head general election polls by state AS OF SEPTEMBER 29, 2020 SOURCE FiveThirtyEight, The Cook Political Report. ASHLEY THIEME 9/29/20 How does a recession impact a president’s reelection bid? SOURCE CNN, New York Times ALICE JOHNSON 2/2/20 The Biden campaign vastly outraised the Trump campaign in August Principal campaign committee fundraising IN MILLIONS USD AS OF AUGUST 31, 2020 SOURCE FEC 9/29/20 SOURCE National Journal Research, Bully Pulpit. 9/29/20 Spending between Jan. 5, 2019 and Sept. 19, 2020 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ■ Facebook spending ■ Google spending Donald Trump FACEBOOK LIKES 29.2 million TWITTER FOLLOWERS 86.3 million INSTAGRAM FOLLOWERS 22 million Joe Biden FACEBOOK LIKES 2.7 million TWITTER FOLLOWERS 9.7 million INSTAGRAM FOLLOWERS 4.1 million Targeted Facebook spending by demographic ■ Male ■ Female ■ Unknown ■ 13-24 ■ 25-44 ■ 45-64 ■ 65+ Trump has spent more than double the amount that Biden’s campaign has on Facebook spending 2020 Election Toolbox