AGCAS Conference 2018 - Workshop E9 Career theory,

Automation Automation is replacement of humans with machines to achieve results. Often not direct replacement – re engineer a process – bank tellers – on line/phone banking
String of reports starting with Frey and Osborne 2013 estimating numbers of jobs susceptible to automation within next 15 – 20 years
Based on occupational data and O- net job descriptions and identifying skills involved and how many technical barriers to automation of each occupation
Yo yo up and down 38% , 9% Arntz Gregory Zierehan, 30% PWC Berriman and most recently OECD back to 12 % emphasises that these are predictions and not fact – question about how careers advisers use predictive LMI<br>

Two views of automation 1 . It is the latest in a string of industrial shifts and each time the jobs that disappear have been replaced by new roles over time. Some skills are intrinsically human such as creativity, judgement and morality, empathy and cannot be replaced by machines. Institutions will step in to ensure that automation does not lead to mass unemployment and ensure that robots work for benefit of mankind.

2. AI and machine learning that are facilitating this revolution are intrinsically different from the processes that drove previous revolutions
It is more rapid, roles are not being created at the same rate as previously and in particular are taking over more cognitive less predictable tasks
Automation is already leading to greater structural inequalities and polarisation. Some believe it is boundless and warn it could lead to a post work society or at least one of huge polarisation between workers and “the rest”<br>

Automation and Graduates Mixed views on how susceptible to automation graduate jobs are
Everyone agrees that it is the middle ground and lower skills that are most at threat from technology
Traditional view is that higher skills will be safe as they are not routine and too many barriers to automation and in any case expertise will be required to direct automation of jobs lower down the skills ladder. Some lower skills are safe because they are low paid and not routine
Susskind and Susskind (2015) undertook a qualitative study of professions making a strong case for the susceptibility of professions on basis that they are applied information and expertise that can be learnt
60 % of jobs have 30% of tasks that could be automated – McKinsey 2017<br>

Inequalities Wealth concentrated in smaller numbers of workers and owners/entrepreneurs
1979 General motors 800,00 workers $11Bn
2012 Google 58000 workers $14 Bn
Unequal distributions of women/men particularly in safer STEM jobs that drive automation
Platform effect - winner takes all
Lovely/Lousy jobs<br>

In the short term automation will create an opportunity for those in work to make use of the innate human skills that machines have the hardest time replicating: non routine problem solving,
social and emotional capabilities, empathy
providing expertise

coaching and developing others
Imagination, Creativity and innovation
Critical and systems thinking.<br>

Preliminary findings Students rarely raise automation as an issue
Careers Advisers vary in their awareness of the issue of automation but are overwhelmingly optimistic about future for graduates
Draw on a wide range of models often not relying on one single model.
Several advisers deliver sessions on the future of work particularly as part of Careers Education
LMI experts I spoke to recognise the phenomenon but are sceptical about wholesale automation
Most believe that high level skills remain the way forward for the economy and that automation will free up professionals for more advanced work roles.<br>

Careers Guidance is seen as crucial by many commentators (quote) but are we equipped? Career Theory
Trait and Factor based theories Parsons, Holland,
Happenstance – rooted in Social Learning Theory and Chaos theory
Life stages/life design (Super)
Kaleidoscope, Boundaryless and Protean Career models
Social Justice Model – Hooley et al
Opportunity Structure model – Roberts Guidance Models or Approaches
GROW Goal, Reality, opportunity, way forward
Narrative approach /Life Design
High 5 Model (Canada)
Counselling approach (Graham/Ali)
DOTS/SODiT<br>

Questions on career development theory/guidance models How useful do you think this theory or model is in explaining career development in 21st Century
 
For example:
What are the assumptions the theory or model is based on and are they still valid?
 
Does the theory or model emphasise the need for rapidly changing skill needs, flexibility and adaptability?
 
Does the theory or model allow consideration of issues beyond work?<br>

Question on inequalities arising from rapid automation. Increasing Polarisation between the wealthy and the low paid
Lovely jobs/ lousy jobs and erosion of conditions of “employment”
Unequal distributions of highly skilled work

Clearly Careers Guidance cannot solve these economic issues but is there more that career services could do to challenge or mitigate this negative impact for our clients?<br>

Possible Policy Responses to Industry 4.0/ rapid automation Universal Basic Income or adapted social safety nets
 
Shorter working hours/week
 
Skills retraining grants and subsidies/ New forms of Education and Training Provision
 
Improved data signalling on skills demands

Broader distribution of Capital Ownership eg Citizen Wealth Fund<br>

Government policy or intervention in relation to Career guidance role. What are the implications for Career Guidance of possible policy responses to rapid automation?
Will these policies increase or decrease the demand for career support and guidance?
Will the scope of careers guidance change as a result of any of these possible policy responses?
If Governments pursue some or all of these policies would it alter the status and importance of with which they view Career Guidance Services?<br>

Thankyou and enjoy the rest of the conference. Nigel Royle
University of the West of Scotland
nigel.royle@uws.ac.uk
0141 848 3831<br>

AGCAS Conference 2018 - Workshop E9 Career theory, models and delivery: are we ready for Industry 4.0?
Career Development Theories
A Trait and Matching Theory (Parsons, Holland)
Based on idea that a person’s traits could be measured and compared with data on factors involved in a range of occupations in order to determine an ideal career choice that meets the needs of the person and provides a satisfactory performance for the employer.

Eg Hollands 6 occupational types
Big Five personality tests

B Planned Happenstance (Krumboltz)
Planned Happenstance places an emphasis on social learning through interaction with the world and people as the major factor in career development and how you perceive the choices open to you. This interaction often takes place in what appear to be random happenings; chance meetings, events, results of mistakes, experience, talking to people. Guidance practitioners may suggest client explore ways to place themselves where these opportunities are more likely to take place such as taking on new roles, setting up and attending events and active networking etc .
C Life span – Life Space (Super)
Suggested 5 career stages: Growth, Exploration, Establishment, Maintenance and Decline
And six main life-spaces that make up who we are: parent/homemaker, worker, citizen, leisurite, student, and child
Concerned with self- concept which develops through career but critically recognised that this self concept would be shaped by external factors and new experiences over time and through the different life spaces.

D Kaleidoscope/Boundary less/Protean careers
These models recognise the changing labour markets and working patterns where loyalty to the firm, or profession is no longer the possibility it was or the asset it was. Globalisation, technological change, outsourcing, freelancing, worker diversity also play a factor in changing environments. In order to thrive we must take more responsibility for our own careers and sometimes re-invent ourselves in order to find a place in the labour market hence the term Protean from the Greek god Proteus who could change shape at will.

E Social Justice Models (Hooley)
Career choice is inherently political at the interface of the individual and society. It should facilitate the fairer allocation of life chances. Hooley suggests 3 elements:
Reframe – encourage an understanding of the power dynamics in society and work
Socialise - invite clients to talk about their context and people that matter (habitus), See social capital as a resource, build community capacity and possibilities for collective actions.
Act – Empower individually and collectively, advocate for those who can’t speak for themselves, provide feedback at system level
F Opportunity structures models
This theory originally developed by Ken Roberts in 1970s and updated in 2009 argues that for most people occupational choice is structured by factors outside the individual including social class, ethnicity, location, educational opportunities and the current state of the labour market depending on economic trends in supply and demand.<br>

Career Guidance Models or Approaches
1 GROW Coaching model
Popular model for working with clients
G Goal
R – Reality
O- Options
W- What (action)


2 Narrative approach and Life Design
A social constructivist approach based on the premise that people make sense of their career development through ascribing personal meaning to events. The client is encouraged to tell their story and make sense of the events through themes and patterns in their life events in forming career identity. Life design is a later version of this approach and responds to a more rapidly changing environment (Boundaryless, kaleidoscopic or portfolio careers) by suggesting that identity exists outside the stable job or occupation with ideas such as micro narratives that can be combined to create a broader narrative, deconstruction of narratives that hold them back, co construction of a life portrait and action that forges links with the outside world.

3 Hi Five - (Redekopp, Day & Robb) Hi Five is less a model to explain career development and more a set of 5 pithy understandable messages that help clients to move forward
Change is constant – whether technology, society, globalisation
Follow your Heart – values, beliefs and interests are the key to motivation
Focus on the journey – this reassesses the need for matching
Stay Learning – advise on ways to learn and how to record and reflect
Be an Ally – support others in their journey

4 Counselling approach (Graham Ali) This is a process model with four phases
Clarifying- setting the scene, developing empathy with the client hearing their story and making an initial assessment
Exploring – building the contract, exploring issues , encouraging consideration of other options and re-examining the contract
Evaluating – challenging inconsistencies, enabling client to weigh up possibilities and prioritise re-examining the contract
Action Planning identify what needs to be done and formulating an action plan referral if necessary reviewing the contract and ending.
5 DOTS
Decision Learning – ability to make realistic choices based on sound information
Opportunity Awareness – awareness of the possibilities that exist, the demands they make and the rewards and satisfactions they can offer
Transition Skills – increased ability to plan and take action and implement decisions
Self-Awareness – aware of distinctive characteristics – abilities skills, values and interests - that define the kind of person one wishes to become

Watts and Hawthorne 1992<br>

Possible Policy Responses to Industry 4.0/ rapid automation
Universal Basic Income or adapted social safety nets
Everyone would be entitled to a minimum liveable income which could be supplemented by income from labour. This would serve two purposes – provide a safety net for those whose roles disappeared and also provide an income while they retrain for a role in a new sector or for a technology enhanced role in the same industry. Another possibility that this provides the opportunity for experimentation with entrepreneurship or for life enhancing labour that does not generate sustainable income.
 
Shorter working hours/week
Effectively this is a sharing of the decreased whole amount of work available as result of automation to ensure greater equity across society. One of the consequences would be greater leisure time or as above provides the opportunity for experimentation with entrepreneurship or for life enhancing labour that does not generate sustainable income.
 
Skills retraining grants and subsidies/ New forms of Education and Training Provision
eg bite size industry inspired or led training, intense more flexible training, low cost digital delivery. Among other measures these should increase movement between roles and sectors and provide opportunities for reskilling that were not possible before due to perceived prohibitive cost
 
Improved data signalling on skills demands
Greater effort to produce real time data on skills demands would have an impact on people’s awareness of the labour market and where particular demands lie.
 
Broader distribution of Capital Ownership eg Citizen Wealth Fund
At present the concentration of ownership is increasing but this leads to an increasingly polarised society. Governments may take measures to ensure a greater spread of ownership. This along with encouraging higher levels of entrepreneurship would mean that people have vested interests in technology and change.<br>

References
Ford, M. (2015) The Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of Mass Unemployment London: Oneworld Publications
Brynjolfsson, E and McAfee, A (2014) The Second Machine Age. Work, Progress and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies New York: Norton Press
Frey, C.B and Osborne, M.A (2016) The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation? Oxford: Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and employment
Arntz, M.T, Gregory, T and Zierahn, U. (2016) The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: a comparative analysis: OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No 18
Berriman, R and Hawkesworth, J (2017) Will robots steal our jobs? The potential impact of automation on the UK and other major economies (Section 4) : PricewaterhouseCoopers
Susskind, R. and Susskind, D. (2015) The Future of the Professions how Technology will transform the work of human experts Oxford: Oxford University Press
Ross, A. (2016) The Industries of the Future. New York: Simon and Schuster,
Schwab K, (2016) The Fourth Industrial Revolution: Geneva: World Economic Forum
Nedelkoska, L. and Quintini, G. (2018) Automation, skills use and training OECD Working paper
Cochran L. (1997) Career Counselling: a narrative approach Thousand Oaks. California: Sage Publications
Savickas M. L. (2012) Life Design: A Paradigm for Career Intervention in the 21st Century Journal of Counseling & Development January 2012 ■ Volume 90
Störmer E., Patscha C., Prendergast J., Daheim C. (2014) The Future of Work: Jobs and skills in 2030 London: UKCES available at www.ukces.org.uk/thefutureofwork accessed 01.06.2017
Roberts C, Lawrence M and King L (2017) Managing automation: Employment, Inequality and Ethics in the Digital Age, IPPR. [on line] available: http://www.ippr.org/publications/managing-automation Accessed 29.12.2017
Hooley, T (2018) A War Against The Robots, Career Guidance Automation and Neoliberalism in Hooley, T. Sultana, R Thomsen, R (Eds) Career Guidance for Social Justice: Countering Neoliberalism [online] New York, NY : Routledge, Taylor & Francis. Available: Dawsonera Accessed
Roberts K. (2009) Opportunity structures then and now, Journal of Education and Work, 22:5, 355-368, DOI: 10.1080/13639080903453987
Redekopp, D. (1995) The ‘High Five’ of Career Development. ERIC Digest.
Ali L. and Graham, B (1996) The Counselling Approach to Careers Guidance London: Routledge
Hooley, T. Feb 25th 2018 Career guidance for social justice: NICEC/CDI workshop [Blog: online] Available: https://adventuresincareerdevelopment.wordpress.com/2018/02/25/career-guidance-for-social-justice-nicec-cdi-workshop/ [Accessed 3.9.2018]<br>