CFSv2-based Dynamical–Statistical Forecast for the

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Description: CFSv2-based DynamicalStatistical Forecast for the 2017 Hurricane Season Date: 07212017 CFS ICs: 0705 07192017 Background Information Prediction methodology Hurricane climatology (entire season) Definitions of above-, near-,

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slide1. CFSv2-based Dynamical–Statistical Forecast for the
2017 Hurricane Season
Date: 07/21/2017 CFS ICs: 07/05 – 07/19/2017

Background Information
Prediction methodology
Hurricane climatology (entire season)
Definitions of above-, near-, & below-normal seasons

Forecasts
ASO SST and wind shear anomaly (CFSv2 ensemble forecast)
Hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic basin
Hurricane season forecast for the Eastern Pacific

Forecast range is determined by forecast  one standard deviation of inter-member spreads.

Probability forecast is based on 60 members of CFSv2 forecasts and NOAA’s definitions of below-, near- and above-normal criteria. 1<br>
slide2. Prediction Methodology 2 predictors Regression period: 1982–2016
CFS ASO MDR U200–U850
Observed preseason NATL SST

MDR: 20oW – 80oW, 10oN – 20oN
NATL: 30oW – 60oW, 55oN – 65oN 2 predictors Regression period: 1982–2016
CFS AugSep CTP U200–U850
CFS AugSep CNP SST

CTP: 165oE – 135oW, 10oS – 7.5oN
CNP: 165oE – 135oW, 20oN – 36oN E. Pacific Seasonal Hurricane Activity Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity 2<br>
slide3. Atlantic Climatology
Entire Hurricane Season Eastern Pacific 3<br>
slide4. Definitions of Above-, Near-, and Below-Normal Seasons ACE median: 92.5 (Atlantic) 100.4 (E. Pacific) 4<br>
slide5. 5<br>
slide6. MDR 6 April ICs<br>
slide7. 7 July ICs MDR<br>
slide8. MDR 8 April ICs<br>
slide9. 9 July ICs MDR<br>
slide10. Below Near Above
Normal Below, Near & Above Normal Below Near Above Below Near Above Below Near Above Below Near Above Below Near Above Below Near Above Below Near Above Forecasts of the Atlantic 10<br>
slide11. Below Near Above
Normal Below, Near & Above Normal Below Near Above Below Near Above Below Near Above Below Near Above Below Near Above Below Near Above Below Near Above Forecasts of the E. Pacific 11<br>