GEO 205: Population and Development Course
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GEO 205: Population and Development Course Instructor: Kibonde, Suma RECAP: Demographic Transition Model Looking at how countries overtime change specifically focusing on birth rates, death rates and population growth Also the model looks
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01
GEO 205: Population and Development Course Instructor: Kibonde, Suma<br>
02
RECAP: Demographic Transition Model Looking at how countries overtime change specifically focusing on birth rates, death rates and population growth
Also the model looks at how countries grow/shrink, causes etc.
Hence: Four stages, the fifth is still debatable<br>
Also the model looks at how countries grow/shrink, causes etc.
Hence: Four stages, the fifth is still debatable<br>
03
DTM<br>
04
Stage 1: Low Growth Majority of human history took place in this stage
There are no countries in this stage
Everyone has progressed in the stage 2
Hunters and gatherers are in this stage
Features: CBR is very high (lot of kids)
CDR is very high (dying a lot- plagues)
NIR is vey low<br>
There are no countries in this stage
Everyone has progressed in the stage 2
Hunters and gatherers are in this stage
Features: CBR is very high (lot of kids)
CDR is very high (dying a lot- plagues)
NIR is vey low<br>
05
Stage 2: High Growth This stage first occurred after the industrial revolution (IR) – 1750
With the diffusion of technology, medicine & medical revolution more countries joined stage 2
This happened after 1950 when penicillin, vaccines, insecticides and other medicines spread around the world
Features: CBR still high
CDR starts to decline
NIR starts to boom<br>
With the diffusion of technology, medicine & medical revolution more countries joined stage 2
This happened after 1950 when penicillin, vaccines, insecticides and other medicines spread around the world
Features: CBR still high
CDR starts to decline
NIR starts to boom<br>
06
Penicillin, vaccines, insectides & other medicines diffused around the world after 1950 which lowered the CDR of many countries
Cultural lag is when a culture takes time to catch up with technological innovation<br>
Cultural lag is when a culture takes time to catch up with technological innovation<br>
07
Stage 3: Decreasing NIR During this stage the CBR starts to decline, the CDR continues to decline and our NIR is now moderate instead of high
Why does this happen?
Urbanisation
Mind change (no more cultural lag)
Economic changes make it harder to support a large family
Improved medicine lower IMR<br>
Why does this happen?
Urbanisation
Mind change (no more cultural lag)
Economic changes make it harder to support a large family
Improved medicine lower IMR<br>
08
Stage 4: Low/No Growth CBR is low, CDR is low, NIR is low or ZPG (Zero Population Growth)
Why?
Urbanization continues
Women have more roles/opportunities in society (no longer regarded as baby makers)
Women who are more involved in the workforce have less time to have kids
Women are more empowered
A TFR of 2.1 is the replacement rate<br>
Why?
Urbanization continues
Women have more roles/opportunities in society (no longer regarded as baby makers)
Women who are more involved in the workforce have less time to have kids
Women are more empowered
A TFR of 2.1 is the replacement rate<br>
09
Stage 5: Negative NIR (debatable) As the population ages the CBR remains low while the CDR starts to increase
This causes a variety of problems for society
Elderly support ratio: Number of pp aged 15-64 per one older person aged 65 or older
Why high CDR?
New diseases?
Poverty?
Countries are coming up with Family planning, Change policies e.g China<br>
This causes a variety of problems for society
Elderly support ratio: Number of pp aged 15-64 per one older person aged 65 or older
Why high CDR?
New diseases?
Poverty?
Countries are coming up with Family planning, Change policies e.g China<br>
10
Determinants of DTT Psychological/emotional
Society changes its rationale & opinion on f/size & parental energies redirected to qlty of child-raising
Bio-physiological,
↓infant mort & expectation of longer life in parents
Socio-economic
Childhood survival & ec challenges of large f/size<br>
Society changes its rationale & opinion on f/size & parental energies redirected to qlty of child-raising
Bio-physiological,
↓infant mort & expectation of longer life in parents
Socio-economic
Childhood survival & ec challenges of large f/size<br>
11
Demographic
Rural –urban migration
shift from agr & labor-based prod output to techn & service-sector-based economies<br>
Rural –urban migration
shift from agr & labor-based prod output to techn & service-sector-based economies<br>
12
Epidemiologic Transition Model (ETM) Distinctive cases of death in each stage of the demographic trans. Model
It looks at the causes of death in society
Is a branch of medical science concerned with the incidence, distribution and control of diseases that affect large numbers of people<br>
It looks at the causes of death in society
Is a branch of medical science concerned with the incidence, distribution and control of diseases that affect large numbers of people<br>
13
Epidemiology Psychiatric Epidemiologists
Diabetes Epidemiology
Cardiovascular Epidemiology
Cancer Epidemiology
Infectious Disease Epidemiology<br>
Diabetes Epidemiology
Cardiovascular Epidemiology
Cancer Epidemiology
Infectious Disease Epidemiology<br>
14
Mortality and Population Dynamics Proposition 1
The theory of epidemiologic transition begins with the major premise that mortality is a fundamental factor in population dynamics<br>
The theory of epidemiologic transition begins with the major premise that mortality is a fundamental factor in population dynamics<br>
15
Shifts in Mortality and Disease Patterns Proposition 2
During the transition, a long-term shift occurs in mortality and disease patterns whereby pandemics of infection are gradually displaced by degenerative and man-made diseases as the chief form of morbidity and primary cause of death
Typically, mortality patterns distinguish three major successive stages of the epidemiologic transition<br>
During the transition, a long-term shift occurs in mortality and disease patterns whereby pandemics of infection are gradually displaced by degenerative and man-made diseases as the chief form of morbidity and primary cause of death
Typically, mortality patterns distinguish three major successive stages of the epidemiologic transition<br>
16
What is stage 1 of the ETM? Defined by Abel Omran in 1971
• 1. Known as stage of pestilence and famine
characterized by:
Infections, parasitic diseases, accidents, animal
and human attacks were principal causes of
human death
T. Malthus called these “natural checks” on the growth of human population in stage 1 of the demographic transition model<br>
• 1. Known as stage of pestilence and famine
characterized by:
Infections, parasitic diseases, accidents, animal
and human attacks were principal causes of
human death
T. Malthus called these “natural checks” on the growth of human population in stage 1 of the demographic transition model<br>
17
Black death The Black Plague is stage 1
Example of disease diffusion said to have started in Kyrgyzstan
brought by a Tatar army when it attacked an Italian trade outpost in present day Ukraine
Retreating Italians brought the infected rats on their ships to other European coastal cities<br>
Example of disease diffusion said to have started in Kyrgyzstan
brought by a Tatar army when it attacked an Italian trade outpost in present day Ukraine
Retreating Italians brought the infected rats on their ships to other European coastal cities<br>
18
What is in Stage 2? Called stage of receding pandemics (disease that
occurs over a wide geographic area and affects a
very high proportion of the population)
I.E. Outbreak of cholera in crowded poor sanitized
cities of the Industrial Rev.
1832: NYC lost 500,000 to cholera
• John Snow is known for mapping out and linking
cholera source during a Great Britain outbreak to
contaminated drinking water and showed that the
poor were not being punished for “their sins”<br>
occurs over a wide geographic area and affects a
very high proportion of the population)
I.E. Outbreak of cholera in crowded poor sanitized
cities of the Industrial Rev.
1832: NYC lost 500,000 to cholera
• John Snow is known for mapping out and linking
cholera source during a Great Britain outbreak to
contaminated drinking water and showed that the
poor were not being punished for “their sins”<br>
19
Cholera was eradicated in the late 19th century however it reappeared a century later in growing cities of less developed countries as they moved into stage 2 of the DTM<br>
20
What is Stage 3 & 4? Stage of degenerative diseases and human
created diseases
• Characterized by a decrease in deaths from infectious diseases and an increase in chronic disorders associated with aging
• Two most important in this stage are heart
disease (cardiovascular) and cancer<br>
created diseases
• Characterized by a decrease in deaths from infectious diseases and an increase in chronic disorders associated with aging
• Two most important in this stage are heart
disease (cardiovascular) and cancer<br>
21
Stage 4 is an extension of stage 3
• Delay of degenerative diseases because of operations, medicine, better/preventive diets, etc<br>
• Delay of degenerative diseases because of operations, medicine, better/preventive diets, etc<br>
22
Hybristic stage Rodgers & Hackenberg (1987) added this stage bcz original theory didn’t consider deaths due to
Violence and accidents
Individual behaviors and potentially destructive behaviors. E.g. HIV/AIDS
Physical inactivity, excessive drinking, unhealthy diet, cigarette smoking
Liver cirrhosis, lung cancer, diabetes, heart diseases<br>
Violence and accidents
Individual behaviors and potentially destructive behaviors. E.g. HIV/AIDS
Physical inactivity, excessive drinking, unhealthy diet, cigarette smoking
Liver cirrhosis, lung cancer, diabetes, heart diseases<br>
23
Summary Age of Pestilence and Famine
Age of Receding Pandemics
The age of degenerative & man-made diseases
Hybristic stage<br>
Age of Receding Pandemics
The age of degenerative & man-made diseases
Hybristic stage<br>
24
Is there a Stage 5? Some argue that infectious and parasitic diseases
are reemerging ; others just see it as a setback
• Reasons for this emergence:
1. Evolution- microbes are immune to antibiotics,
2. Poverty- disease like TB are largely controlled
in countries like US but still causing many deaths
in less-developed countries
3. Travel-disease diffusion (ex. SARS from China) (Severe acute respiratory syndrome)<br>
are reemerging ; others just see it as a setback
• Reasons for this emergence:
1. Evolution- microbes are immune to antibiotics,
2. Poverty- disease like TB are largely controlled
in countries like US but still causing many deaths
in less-developed countries
3. Travel-disease diffusion (ex. SARS from China) (Severe acute respiratory syndrome)<br>
25
Vocabulary:
• Chronic diseases:
• Infectious diseases:
• Genetic diseases:<br>
• Chronic diseases:
• Infectious diseases:
• Genetic diseases:<br>
26
Relative Risks of Mortality by Age and Sex Proposition 3
During the epidemiologic transition the most profound changes in health and disease patterns obtain among children and young women
Genuine improvements in survivorship that occur with the recession of pandemics are peculiarly beneficial to children of both sexes and to females in the adolescent and reproductive ages
Probably because the susceptibility of these groups to infectious and deficiency diseases is relatively high<br>
During the epidemiologic transition the most profound changes in health and disease patterns obtain among children and young women
Genuine improvements in survivorship that occur with the recession of pandemics are peculiarly beneficial to children of both sexes and to females in the adolescent and reproductive ages
Probably because the susceptibility of these groups to infectious and deficiency diseases is relatively high<br>
27
Interacting Transition Variables Proposition 4
Shifts in health & disease patterns are closely accompanied with bio-physical, socioeconomic & psychological factors constituting modernization complex
↑probability of infant/child survival→ prolonged lact →lengthened mother's ppt period of natural protection against conception (Bio-physiological factors<br>
Shifts in health & disease patterns are closely accompanied with bio-physical, socioeconomic & psychological factors constituting modernization complex
↑probability of infant/child survival→ prolonged lact →lengthened mother's ppt period of natural protection against conception (Bio-physiological factors<br>
28
As probab of child survival ↑ interest in having many children ↓, social & economic system consider child as an economic liability rather than asset (socio-economic factor)
As couples become aware that their children will survive, the likelihood of practicing family limitation is enhanced (Psychological factors)<br>
As couples become aware that their children will survive, the likelihood of practicing family limitation is enhanced (Psychological factors)<br>
29
Basic Models of the Epidemiologic Transition Proposition 5
Countries differ in level of ec dvt, demo variables and other aspects
Differ in disease & health patterns & consequences on sociaties as countries pass thro ETT stages
4 models/variants of the ETT are proposed
The Classical/Western Model
The Accelerated Variant of the Classical Model
The Delayed Model
The Transition Variant of the Delayed Model<br>
Countries differ in level of ec dvt, demo variables and other aspects
Differ in disease & health patterns & consequences on sociaties as countries pass thro ETT stages
4 models/variants of the ETT are proposed
The Classical/Western Model
The Accelerated Variant of the Classical Model
The Delayed Model
The Transition Variant of the Delayed Model<br>
30
The Classical (Western) Model Gradual trans from high to low mortality and fertility
Mortality: >30/1,000 to <10/1,000
Fertility: >40/1,000 to <20/1,000
Infect diseases displaced by deg & man-made diseases
Late 18th C, lasted over 150 yrs to post-World War II era
Fertility & mortality decline at almost the same rate<br>
Mortality: >30/1,000 to <10/1,000
Fertility: >40/1,000 to <20/1,000
Infect diseases displaced by deg & man-made diseases
Late 18th C, lasted over 150 yrs to post-World War II era
Fertility & mortality decline at almost the same rate<br>
31
Modernization in most western European societies in 19thC
England, Wales, Sweden, Germany<br>
England, Wales, Sweden, Germany<br>
32
The Accelerated Variant of the Classical Model Rapid transition as a result of a few decades of intensive war-driven industrialization followed by postwar occupation
The accelerated transition follows a pattern similar to the Classical/Western Model except that it occurs within a much shorter time span. Why?
Selective improvement in survival of children <15 and of women
Improvement in sanitation, nutrition & medical advance<br>
The accelerated transition follows a pattern similar to the Classical/Western Model except that it occurs within a much shorter time span. Why?
Selective improvement in survival of children <15 and of women
Improvement in sanitation, nutrition & medical advance<br>
33
Shift to the age of degenerative and man-made diseases was much faster
Observed in Japan, China, Eastern Europe<br>
Observed in Japan, China, Eastern Europe<br>
34
The Contemporary/Delayed Model Relatively recent, yet-to-be completed, lasting into 21st C
Most d’ping countries due to slow ec dvt
Medical and public health improvements have reduced mortality, while the birth rate continues to remain high
Although these programs have successfully manipulated mortality downward but have left fertility at substantially high levels ex. Mauritius<br>
Most d’ping countries due to slow ec dvt
Medical and public health improvements have reduced mortality, while the birth rate continues to remain high
Although these programs have successfully manipulated mortality downward but have left fertility at substantially high levels ex. Mauritius<br>
35
The Transition Variant of the Delayed Model Transition in a number of developing countries such as Taiwan , Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Jamaica, China e.t.c
Rapid decline in mortality in these countries was comparable to that in countries matching the delayed model<br>
Rapid decline in mortality in these countries was comparable to that in countries matching the delayed model<br>
36
Importance of
Geographic Patterns<br>
Geographic Patterns<br>
37
Incidence of Stomach CA Males<br>
38
Breast Cancer Incidence Females<br>
39
CHD Death Rates Males, aged 45-54<br>
40
Cirrhosis Death Rates, Males, aged 45-54<br>
41
High Incidence of NCDs in Developing Countries Possible Infectious Etiology
Macronodular Cirrhosis
Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Rheumatic Heart Disease
Iron deficiency anemia
Related to Nutrition Deficiency
Endemic Goiter
Malnutrition Related Diabetes.<br>
Macronodular Cirrhosis
Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Rheumatic Heart Disease
Iron deficiency anemia
Related to Nutrition Deficiency
Endemic Goiter
Malnutrition Related Diabetes.<br>
42
High Incidence of NCDs in Developed Countries Cardiovascular
CHD
Deep Vein Thrombosis
Respiratory
Emphysema
Lung CA
Female Genital
Endometriosis
Endometrial CA
Breast
Breast CA
Fibrocystic Disease
Male Genital
Prostrate CA
Metabolic
NIDDM<br>
CHD
Deep Vein Thrombosis
Respiratory
Emphysema
Lung CA
Female Genital
Endometriosis
Endometrial CA
Breast
Breast CA
Fibrocystic Disease
Male Genital
Prostrate CA
Metabolic
NIDDM<br>
43
Back to Nature Improved Physical activity
A Healthier Diet, less saturated fats, more fiber
Less Stress<br>
A Healthier Diet, less saturated fats, more fiber
Less Stress<br>
44
Transition Nomads
Farmers
Urban 45 yrs
60 yrs
70 yrs<br>
Farmers
Urban 45 yrs
60 yrs
70 yrs<br>
45
1960 Urban Rural USA Developing
Countries rural urban<br>
Countries rural urban<br>
46
2006 Urban Rural USA Developing
Countries rural urban<br>
Countries rural urban<br>
47
Causes of Death Age 15-44
Accidents
CA
CHD
Age 45-54
CHD
CA
Accidents Age 15-44
Accidents
CHD
CA
Age 45-54
CHD
CA
Accidents Developed Developing<br>
Accidents
CA
CHD
Age 45-54
CHD
CA
Accidents Age 15-44
Accidents
CHD
CA
Age 45-54
CHD
CA
Accidents Developed Developing<br>
48
Conclusion This theory gives theoretical perspective to the process of population change by relating mortality patterns to demographic and socio-economic determinants and consequences of health and disease changes in a variety of social contexts<br>
49
Study Question What is the relationship between DEVELOPMENT and the 4 stages characterizing transition in health & disease patterns?
Age of pestilence and famine
Age of receding pandemics
Age of degenerative and man-made diseases
Age of delayed degenerative diseases
The 4 models/variants of the ETT
Classical/Western Model (slow)
Accelerated Variant of the Classical Model (fast)
Delayed Model (substantial dec in mort)
Transition Variant of the Delayed Model<br>
Age of pestilence and famine
Age of receding pandemics
Age of degenerative and man-made diseases
Age of delayed degenerative diseases
The 4 models/variants of the ETT
Classical/Western Model (slow)
Accelerated Variant of the Classical Model (fast)
Delayed Model (substantial dec in mort)
Transition Variant of the Delayed Model<br>
50
Assignment: Research paper or Report If it’s a research paper, note the following
Abstract
Introduction/Background
Research Objectives
Research/Methods
Results/Findings
Statistics/Analysis
Discussion
Conclusion
If it is a report, read the whole
Prepare a max of 2 pages for submission
Prepare a max of 2 ppt slides for presentation<br>
Abstract
Introduction/Background
Research Objectives
Research/Methods
Results/Findings
Statistics/Analysis
Discussion
Conclusion
If it is a report, read the whole
Prepare a max of 2 pages for submission
Prepare a max of 2 ppt slides for presentation<br>