GEO 205: Population and Development Course

Transcript:GEO 205: Population and Development Course:
GEO 205: Population and Development Course Instructor: Kibonde, Suma RECAP: Demographic Transition Model Looking at how countries overtime change specifically focusing on birth rates, death rates and population growth Also the model looks at how countries grow/shrink, causes etc. Hence: Four stages, the fifth is still debatable DTM Stage 1: Low Growth Majority of human history took place in this stage There are no countries in this stage Everyone has progressed in the stage 2 Hunters and gatherers are in this stage Features: CBR is very high (lot of kids) CDR is very high (dying a lot- plagues) NIR is vey low Stage 2: High Growth This stage first occurred after the industrial revolution (IR) – 1750 With the diffusion of technology, medicine & medical revolution more countries joined stage 2 This happened after 1950 when penicillin, vaccines, insecticides and other medicines spread around the world Features: CBR still high CDR starts to decline NIR starts to boom Penicillin, vaccines, insectides & other medicines diffused around the world after 1950 which lowered the CDR of many countries Cultural lag is when a culture takes time to catch up with technological innovation Stage 3: Decreasing NIR During this stage the CBR starts to decline, the CDR continues to decline and our NIR is now moderate instead of high Why does this happen? Urbanisation Mind change (no more cultural lag) Economic changes make it harder to support a large family Improved medicine lower IMR Stage 4: Low/No Growth CBR is low, CDR is low, NIR is low or ZPG (Zero Population Growth) Why? Urbanization continues Women have more roles/opportunities in society (no longer regarded as baby makers) Women who are more involved in the workforce have less time to have kids Women are more empowered A TFR of 2.1 is the replacement rate Stage 5: Negative NIR (debatable) As the population ages the CBR remains low while the CDR starts to increase This causes a variety of problems for society Elderly support ratio: Number of pp aged 15-64 per one older person aged 65 or older Why high CDR? New diseases? Poverty? Countries are coming up with Family planning, Change policies e.g China Determinants of DTT Psychological/emotional Society changes its rationale & opinion on f/size & parental energies redirected to qlty of child-raising Bio-physiological, ↓infant mort & expectation of longer life in parents Socio-economic Childhood survival & ec challenges of large f/size