March 2021 Canada’s Pandemic & Post Pandemic

Varied Industry Performance leads to talk of a ‘K’ Shaped Recovery with Implications for Cities Sources: Deloitte, Statistics Canada Real GDP: peak decline in output (bottom point) and change from February to November 2020 (top point)
Percent Change<br>

Small Businesses most Impacted Sources: Deloitte, Statistics Canada Employment decline in April compared to February and October Compared to February by establishment size
Index<br>

Large increase in Savings sets stage for Strong Rebound Sources: Statistics Canada, forecasts by Deloitte. Household savings
$C billions at quarterly rates<br>

Government support has come with a Massive Price Tag Sources: Haver Analytics; Statistics Canada; Department of Finance<br>

COVID-19 has created massive disruption, while structural forces are still in play EMERGING TRENDS ACCELERATING TRENDS STRUCTURAL TRENDS<br>

Resilience to COVID The pandemic has varying impacts on industries’ recovery depending on the degree of exposure to economic closures, and the ability and speed of adaptation Post-COVID growth potential Professional Scientific and Technical Services Health Education Financial services Utilities Wholesale Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Manufacturing Acc. and food svcs. Culture and Publishing Retail Extractive Construction Agriculture and Forestry Transportation and warehousing Government and Public admin Very Resilient Severely impacted Low potential High potential Motion pictures and sound recording Broadcasting Telecom and Data<br>

Weaker labour force growth, abysmal investment and subdued productivity gains mean Canada’s baseline trajectory is one of soft economic growth Given slowing labour force growth, weak business investment, and slow productivity growth, gains in potential output will remain well below 2 per cent.
Weak potential growth means slower growth in living standards as income per capita increases at a slower pace.
This can lead to broader, societal risks including rising populism, nationalism and protectionism which goes against the diversity that Canada has fought to build.<br>

While GDP growth slows, aging demographics and rising health care costs will add fiscal strain $C Percent<br>

Pandemic is a Perfect Storm for Municipalities Greatest health crisis and deepest recession in modern history
Large cities more impacted than smaller cities and rural areas
The greater urban impact reflects industry distribution, with hardest hit industries more concentrated in larger cities
Job losses concentrated in the most vulnerable workers: low income, women, visible monitories, people of colour – again due to the occupational distribution of workers
Dramatic shift to digital and move to remote work is more disruptive to urban centres with particular impact on housing and transit
Commercial real estate weakened by recession but also the industry distributional impact and shift to digital and remote work
The result has been lower revenues but also increased demand for selected public services resulting from the economic and labour market shock
This decline and revenues and increases demand for public services is a perfect storm for urban centres
Pandemic and recession revealed inadequacies pre-COVID: inequality. income security, childcare, seniors, affordable housing challenge, infrastructure gap<br>

Playbook for Urban Recovery based on work by Toronto Regional Board of Trade and Deloitte Create inclusive, sustainable growth
Regional economic strategy for recovery and development
Skills agenda
Affordable housing
Invest in social determinants of health
Infrastructure as a Regional Catalyst (shift to regional coordinated funding that is future oriented)
More digital, more green
Expedite high-capacity broadband
Make transportation seamless and attractive
Target GHG reduction in largest sectors
Coordinated and Responsive Government
Automation, e-commerce, remote work could add to financial strains
Regional procurement models
Encouraging local innovators to find digital solutions
Improve service delivery
Regulatory reform and realignment
Support a new deal for cities
Digitize, open and innovate government
Harmonize and simply municipal procurement processes and procedures
Get the report here: https://www.bot.com/Portals/_default/RR_WorkTrack4.pdf<br>

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