National Update May 2016 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1
Description: National Update May 2016 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1 SLIDE 2 Heading into the Election Year Direction of country remains strongly negative for over a decade. 63 29 WT The wealth of US families increased from 1983 to 2007, but has fallen
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slide1. National Update
May 2016 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1<br>
slide2. SLIDE 2 Heading into the Election Year<br>
slide3. Direction of country remains strongly negative for over a decade. 63% 29% WT<br>
slide4. The wealth of US families increased from 1983 to 2007, but has fallen sharply since then. Source: PEW Research, 12/9/2015<br>
slide5. America’s Political Polarization Continues
to Increase SLIDE 5<br>
slide6. 1982 2002 1994 Most Liberal Republican Most Conservative Democrat GOP Caucus DEM Caucus IDEOLOGICAL OVERLAP IN THE HOUSE 344 Members DEM Caucus GOP Caucus 252 Members DEM Caucus GOP Caucus 137 Members 2012 GOP Caucus DEM Caucus 13 4 National Journal analysis of voting records, 2013. DEM Caucus GOP Caucus 2013 4<br>
slide7. Road to 2016:
The Democrats<br>
slide8. Primary Ballot – First Choice Democratic Primary Voters Support among non-white voters is the key to Clinton’s being on the verge of securing the nomination.<br>
slide9. Road to 2016:
The Republicans<br>
slide10. ^Excludes Colorado, Kentucky, Nebraska, Washington, Wyoming, and all non-state primaries as of April 20, 2016 Republican primary election turnout
is soaring.<br>
slide11. May 29, 2012* *Mitt Romney had over 50% of the delegates per AP. It still may be hard to get to 50% of the delegates in 2016. GOP Nomination: Remember this date<br>
slide12. Trump and Cruz are by far the most likely nominees. Ted Cruz is the nominee. Donald Trump is
not nominated. The Convention selects a new candidate. % Acceptable % Unacceptable Among Republican Primary Voters<br>
slide13. The Underlying Structure of the 2016 Campaign SLIDE 13<br>
slide14. Measuring economic confidence is important because it is a key component of President Obama’s job approval and an important factor in the 2016 election. Obama Job Approval Today*: 48% *Real Clear Politics average as of April 29, 2016.<br>
slide15. The percentage of white voters has been dropping over the last six presidential elections. Whites<br>
slide16. Democrats start with the “big blue wall.” 242 electoral votes from 18 states + District of Columbia won by Democratic presidential candidate the last 6 elections in a row… …only need to win 28 of the 194 EVs in toss-up states. Clinton 1992 or 1996 States: AZ, AR, GA, KY, LA, MO, MT, TN, and WV<br>
slide17. Statewide Margins v. “True Blue” Counties Margins Democrats have built margins
in key counties in swing states.<br>
slide18. Two unique front runners help define this race.<br>
slide19. More people say they know “a lot” about Clinton or Trump compared to President Obama in 2012! How much do you feel that you know about ______ and what (he/she) stands for – know a lot, know a fair amount, know just some, or know very little?<br>
slide20. Looking Ahead to the General Election<br>
slide21. Feelings on the Presidential Election:
General Election Voters<br>
slide22. There is simply no precedent for the high negative ratings for both potential nominees.<br>
slide23. There has been no other recent presidential campaign where a majority of voters are voting against both candidates rather than voting for the candidate of their choice. * Different language variations shown<br>
slide24. Ballot Margins: 2016 Compared to 2012 2012 Difference Difference<br>
slide25. Ballot Margins: 2016 Compared to 2012 2012 Difference Difference<br>
slide26. Impact on US House and Senate Campaigns<br>
slide27. Republicans are a bit more vulnerable at the House level. Toss Up/Lean House Seats Source: The Cook Political Report<br>
slide28. Source: Polls (270towin), The Washington Post, and FairVote.org Chart based on work done by Doug Sosnik. Clinton leads Trump in most battleground Senate states.<br>
slide29. Ticket-splitting voting is disappearing in Senate campaigns. Source: Ticket Splitting (Sabato, UVA Center for Politics) Ticket-Splitting Voting
Different White House and Senate Result by Party Drop in Ticket-Splitting Results
63.5%<br>
slide30. Questions?<br>
slide31. Bill McInturff| bill@pos.org
Office: (703) 836-7655 SLIDE 31<br>
May 2016 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1<br>
slide2. SLIDE 2 Heading into the Election Year<br>
slide3. Direction of country remains strongly negative for over a decade. 63% 29% WT<br>
slide4. The wealth of US families increased from 1983 to 2007, but has fallen sharply since then. Source: PEW Research, 12/9/2015<br>
slide5. America’s Political Polarization Continues
to Increase SLIDE 5<br>
slide6. 1982 2002 1994 Most Liberal Republican Most Conservative Democrat GOP Caucus DEM Caucus IDEOLOGICAL OVERLAP IN THE HOUSE 344 Members DEM Caucus GOP Caucus 252 Members DEM Caucus GOP Caucus 137 Members 2012 GOP Caucus DEM Caucus 13 4 National Journal analysis of voting records, 2013. DEM Caucus GOP Caucus 2013 4<br>
slide7. Road to 2016:
The Democrats<br>
slide8. Primary Ballot – First Choice Democratic Primary Voters Support among non-white voters is the key to Clinton’s being on the verge of securing the nomination.<br>
slide9. Road to 2016:
The Republicans<br>
slide10. ^Excludes Colorado, Kentucky, Nebraska, Washington, Wyoming, and all non-state primaries as of April 20, 2016 Republican primary election turnout
is soaring.<br>
slide11. May 29, 2012* *Mitt Romney had over 50% of the delegates per AP. It still may be hard to get to 50% of the delegates in 2016. GOP Nomination: Remember this date<br>
slide12. Trump and Cruz are by far the most likely nominees. Ted Cruz is the nominee. Donald Trump is
not nominated. The Convention selects a new candidate. % Acceptable % Unacceptable Among Republican Primary Voters<br>
slide13. The Underlying Structure of the 2016 Campaign SLIDE 13<br>
slide14. Measuring economic confidence is important because it is a key component of President Obama’s job approval and an important factor in the 2016 election. Obama Job Approval Today*: 48% *Real Clear Politics average as of April 29, 2016.<br>
slide15. The percentage of white voters has been dropping over the last six presidential elections. Whites<br>
slide16. Democrats start with the “big blue wall.” 242 electoral votes from 18 states + District of Columbia won by Democratic presidential candidate the last 6 elections in a row… …only need to win 28 of the 194 EVs in toss-up states. Clinton 1992 or 1996 States: AZ, AR, GA, KY, LA, MO, MT, TN, and WV<br>
slide17. Statewide Margins v. “True Blue” Counties Margins Democrats have built margins
in key counties in swing states.<br>
slide18. Two unique front runners help define this race.<br>
slide19. More people say they know “a lot” about Clinton or Trump compared to President Obama in 2012! How much do you feel that you know about ______ and what (he/she) stands for – know a lot, know a fair amount, know just some, or know very little?<br>
slide20. Looking Ahead to the General Election<br>
slide21. Feelings on the Presidential Election:
General Election Voters<br>
slide22. There is simply no precedent for the high negative ratings for both potential nominees.<br>
slide23. There has been no other recent presidential campaign where a majority of voters are voting against both candidates rather than voting for the candidate of their choice. * Different language variations shown<br>
slide24. Ballot Margins: 2016 Compared to 2012 2012 Difference Difference<br>
slide25. Ballot Margins: 2016 Compared to 2012 2012 Difference Difference<br>
slide26. Impact on US House and Senate Campaigns<br>
slide27. Republicans are a bit more vulnerable at the House level. Toss Up/Lean House Seats Source: The Cook Political Report<br>
slide28. Source: Polls (270towin), The Washington Post, and FairVote.org Chart based on work done by Doug Sosnik. Clinton leads Trump in most battleground Senate states.<br>
slide29. Ticket-splitting voting is disappearing in Senate campaigns. Source: Ticket Splitting (Sabato, UVA Center for Politics) Ticket-Splitting Voting
Different White House and Senate Result by Party Drop in Ticket-Splitting Results
63.5%<br>
slide30. Questions?<br>
slide31. Bill McInturff| bill@pos.org
Office: (703) 836-7655 SLIDE 31<br>