Pros cons of e-voting a response Guy Berger The harmsbenefits calculus Your challenge: Minimise cons, Maximise pros Quiz question should we Be optimistic look at the pros? Take a mixed balanced view of both? Be cautious
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Presentation Transcript
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Pro’s & con’s of e-voting – a response Guy Berger<br>
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The harms/benefits calculus Your challenge:
Minimise con’s,
Maximise pro’s<br>
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Quiz question – should we… Be optimistic & look at the pro’s?
Take a mixed / balanced view of both?
Be cautious – focus on the con’s?<br>
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Missing - a four letter word RISK = the relationship between potential benefits and potential harms
Risk is about whether the con’s:
Overshadow/ outnumber the pro’s
Undermine the pro’s directly<br>
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Is it maths? Because some risks can wipe out benefits. Take “cheapness”:
– Risk of hidden costs: expenses of tech obsolence & upgrading…
- Risk as part of threat analysis – any e-hitch will be politically exploited to discredit the poll… To explore: some risks create opportunities for mitigation False trap:
Toting up 2 columns (“more pro’s than con’s = ok” [INCORRECT)”<br>
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1. eg. Managing cyber-security paradox Risk of harm: Sophisticated adversaries can find cybersecurity vulnerabilities … and hide their tracks Mitigation action: Deploy AI to help with threat detection & resilience… Opportunity to address the risk: Find ways to ensure e-voting leaves an electronic trail for forensics<br>
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2. e.g. Optimising efficiency gains Opportunity to address the risk: data at core = governance becomes key Mitigation: Transparency + independent audit options
Require vendors to show algorithms, training-data sets, data flows, and privacy protections Risks:
Who gets, uses and controls the data?
Confidentiality concerns
Snake-oil vendors<br>
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Doing calculus Do scenarios with lists of possible different harms from specific risks
In each scenario, assess risks:
Impact/severity
Likelihood/ probability
Your result:
High+High = Top priority (A grade)
Low+Low = Bottom priority (D grade)
High+low = Upper middle priority (C)
Low+high = Lower middle priority (D) Note: risk can be “unacceptable”, “high” and “specific” (EU AI Act)<br>
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For example, scenario 1<br>
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For example, scenario 1<br>
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Scenario 2 – with mitigations<br>
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Scenario 2 – with mitigations<br>
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Implementation strategy can profitably address the risk calculus for scenarios (including scenarios for mitigation likelihoods – take zero for granted!) If scenario 1, then… If hybrid scenario 1 and 2, then … etc.<br>
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Indeed, IEC will need a playbook even for pilot scenarios<br>
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Thank you I write on these issues on LinkedIn Contact: G.Berger@ru.ac.za<br>
