Prof. Guidato Modern Forecasting Methods Fashion

Transcript:Prof. Guidato Modern Forecasting Methods Fashion:
Prof. Guidato Modern Forecasting Methods Fashion Forecasting Modern Forecasting Methods Key concepts : Identify the characteristics of long-term forecasting Explain how long-term forecasting supports the decision making of executive in the textile and apparel industry Understand the methodology and evolution of long-term forecasting Review current forecasting authors and experts Navigating Change Lifestyle trends ,differently from style trends that move very quickly trough culture ,aided by media and internet, recognize consumer priorities and influence decisions in every aspect of life. Working on long timeline-5 y,10 or even longer-forecasters anticipate the future by linking breakthroughs in science ,technology, and medicine to the likely course of demographic trends. Most large business utilize long-term forecasters as consultants or subscribe to trend reports by their companies . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNWFn1rcNG8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IouItawTOE Trendspotting and Megatrends In 1982 John Naisbitt published his book “Megatrends” that was the first trendsetting book to become a best-seller .Naisbitt identified ten megatrends including : The move toward an information-based economy; The dual compensation of “high-tech”and “high-touch”products ; The shift to a global economy; The shift away form hierarchal structures in favor or informal networks; The shift from an either/or to a multiple-option society. The process of long-term forecasting Forecasters and futurist have a four elements approach to arrive at long-term forecasts : The time frame for predictions-5,10 years or more The techniques used to capturing signals and make the forecasts; The methods used to interpret signals and make the forecasts; The range if the forecasters ,whether general or restricted to certain countries or economic systems, particular cohorts, or specific industries Style Eruptions Henrik Vejlgaard published Anatomy of a trend ( 2008) and Style Eruptions (2013).V. estimates the approximate duration for how long it takes for a trend to go from the trendsetters to the mainstream for the five following product categories: Cosmetic: 1-2 years Clothes: 2-3 years Accessories : 2-3 years Home design: 5-7 years Sports equipment : 6-8 years Contagious In his book 'Contagious: why things catch on '(2013) ,Jonah Berger addresses why people talk about certain products and ideas more than others ,and what makes online content go viral.Berger shares 6 principles of contagiousness that can encourage the diffusion of a trend . These principles coded as STEPPS are : Social currency-Share thing that make us look good to others Triggers-Top of mid ,tip of tongue .Triggers are the stimuli that prompt people to think about related things Emotion-When we care,