The 2012 Jewish Vote National, Ohio, and Florida
Description: The 2012 Jewish Vote National, Ohio, and Florida Post-Election Jewish Surveys November 7, 2012 Methodology National survey of 800 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2010; margin of error - 3.5 percent Ohio statewide
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slide1. The 2012 Jewish Vote
National, Ohio, and Florida Post-Election Jewish Surveys November 7, 2012<br>
slide2. Methodology National survey of 800 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2010; margin of error +/- 3.5 percent
Ohio statewide survey of 600 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2012; margin of error +/- 4 percent
Florida statewide survey of 600 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2012; margin of error +/- 4 percent
National survey administered by email invitation to web-based panel of 900,000 Americans; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study
Ohio and Florida surveys conducted by landline telephones and cell phones, calling a random sample of registered voters with Jewish names and people who self-identify as Jewish in consumer data that has been appended to the state voter files; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study 1<br>
slide3. Bottom Line Takeaway of 2012 Jewish Vote In an election where Obama enjoyed a narrow victory with the overall American electorate, he had an overwhelming victory with the Jewish electorate.
The shift in Obama’s Jewish vote from 2008 reflects shifts in other constituencies such as such as college graduates, whites, Independents, voters under 30, and Catholics.
Obama is more trusted than Romney on all issues, ranging from Social Security and Medicare (65-26) and the economy (56-32) to dealing with Iran (58-26) and Israel (53-31).
Ultimately, the Jewish vote was driven by a mixture of strong support for President Obama (67 percent job approval), a growing sense that he is turning things around for the country (55 percent right direction), positive feelings toward the Democratic Party (54 favorable / 33 unfavorable), and intense opposition to Mitt Romney (29 favorable / 62 unfavorable) and the Republican Party (26 favorable / 64 unfavorable). 2<br>
slide4. Key Findings Nationwide and in two key swing states, overwhelming support for Obama and Democratic candidates among American Jews.
Obama receives 70 percent of Jewish votes nationally, 69 percent in Ohio, and 68 percent in Florida
Senator Sherrod Brown receives 71 percent in Ohio ;Senator Bill Nelson receives 72 percent in Florida
Economy is top voting issue (53 percent), followed by health care (32 percent), Social Security and Medicare (23 percent), and the deficit and government spending (20 percent). Israel is top issue for 10 percent of Jewish voters and Iran is top issue for 2 percent.
Jews hold progressive views on resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Strong support for U.S. playing an active role to help resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, even if it means publicly stating disagreements with the Israelis and the Arabs (69 percent support)
76 percent support the U.S. putting forth a peace plan that proposes borders and security
72 percent support comprehensive agreement along the lines of the Clinton parameters
Addressing Iranian threat elicits mixed views among Jews– 47 percent want to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to work before setting red lines, 35 percent think diplomacy and sanctions have failed and it’s now time to set red lines. 3<br>
slide5. 2012 Jewish Vote
National, Ohio, and Florida 4<br>
slide6. 2012 Presidential Vote 5<br>
slide7. President and Congress Vote - Nationwide 6<br>
slide8. 2008 and 2012 Election Results Comparison Between Jewish and Other Constituencies 7<br>
slide9. Historical Perspective: Jewish Vote in Presidential Elections Exit polls have reported that the Democratic presidential candidate has received between 64 and 80 percent of the Jewish vote since 1972, except 1980
Average Democratic vote share: 70 percent 8 Source: Exit poll data<br>
slide10. Impact of the Jewish Vote 9 Source: 2008 exit polls<br>
slide11. Presidential and Senate Vote Ohio / Florida 10<br>
slide12. Very Few Romney Voters Considered Obama (ROMNEY VOTERS) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for Barack Obama for President? How seriously did you think about voting for Barack Obama -- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously? 11<br>
slide13. Sizable Number of Obama Voters Considered Romney (OBAMA VOTERS) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for Mitt Romney for President? (IF YES) How seriously did you think about voting for Mitt Romney-- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously? 12<br>
slide14. Presidential Financial Contributions – 2008 and 2012 In the 2008 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of John McCain? In the 2012 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of Mitt Romney? 13<br>
slide15. Driving Factors Behind the Jewish Vote 14<br>
slide16. Country Direction Growing Sense that US is Headed in Right Direction 15<br>
slide17. Top TWO Issues in Deciding 2012 Presidential Vote 16<br>
slide18. Obama and Congress Job Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama/Congress is doing? 17 31<br>
slide19. Obama Handling of Arab-Israeli Conflict National Now, something different. Which of the following statements best describes how you view President Obama’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict 18<br>
slide20. Obama Handling of Arab-Israeli Conflict National, Ohio, Florida Which of the following statements best describes how you view President Obama’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict? 19<br>
slide21. Favorability Ratings - National 20 Bill Clinton Barack
Obama Benjamin
Netanyahu The
Democratic
Party Joe
Biden<br>
slide22. Favorability – National, Ohio, and Florida 21<br>
slide23. Obama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our Country National Do you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney would do a better job on this issue? 22<br>
slide24. Brown vs. Mandel on Issues Facing Our Country Ohio Do you think Democrat Sherrod Brown or Republican Josh Mandel would do a better job on this issue? 23 23<br>
slide25. Do you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney would do a better job on this issue? Obama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our Country Florida 24 30 34<br>
slide26. Impact of Attacks on Obama and Democrats 25<br>
slide27. Awareness of Ads Criticizing Obama on Israel National / Ohio Now, I’d like to ask you something different. During the presidential election, did you see any television advertisements or receive any mail pieces criticizing President Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel? 26<br>
slide28. Impact of Ads Criticizing Obama on Israel National / Ohio Did any of these television advertisements or mail pieces criticizing Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who saw an ad or received mail) 27<br>
slide29. Awareness of Netanyahu Advertisements Florida Now, I’d like to ask you something different. During the presidential election, did you see any television advertisements with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talking about Iran? 28<br>
slide30. Impact of Netanyahu Advertisements Florida Did any of these television advertisements with Prime Minister Netanyahu make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who saw an ad or received mail) 29<br>
slide31. Netanyahu Involvement with Presidential Campaign National Based on your own observation of the 2012 Presidential election, do you think Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took steps to try and help one of the candidates running for U.S. President? 30<br>
slide32. Impact of Netanyahu Involvement Did Prime Minister Netanyahu’s efforts to help make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who felt that Netanyahu tried to help a candidate) 31<br>
slide33. United States Role in Resolving
Arab-Israeli Conflict 32<br>
slide34. United States Role in Resolving Arab-Israeli Conflict 33<br>
slide35. Support for Bill Clinton as Middle East Envoy Imagine for a minute that the winning U.S. Presidential candidate appoints former President Bill Clinton to serve as a special Middle East Peace Envoy with the responsibility of bringing Israelis and Palestinians together to negotiate a final status agreement. Regardless of who you voted for in this year’s Presidential election, would you support or oppose the appointment of Bill Clinton to serve as a special Middle East Peace Envoy? 34<br>
slide36. Majority Support Comprehensive Peace Agreement As you may know, on a few occasions during the past 10 years, Israeli, Palestinian, and American negotiators came close to reaching a final status peace agreement but ultimately fell short. The details of that agreement include: 35 A demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza
Internationally recognized borders based on the borders that existed in 1967, with mutually agreed land swaps that allow for most Jewish settlers in the West Bank to be inside Israel while the Palestinians get comparable land areas in return
Palestinian neighborhoods in Jerusalem become part of the new Palestinian state while Israel retains control of Jewish neighborhoods and the Western Wall in Jerusalem
International forces to monitor the new Palestinian state and border crossings
Financial compensation for Palestinian refugees while allowing some refugees to return to Israel if they meet specific family reunification criteria and the Israeli government approves<br>
slide37. Peace is Core US Interest and US Should Use Assertive Diplomacy Instead of Leaving it to Israelis and Palestinians Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right 36<br>
slide38. U.S. Negotiation Role Fair and Impartial Broker vs. Siding with Israel Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right 37<br>
slide39. American Jews Support Public Debate Over Israel Policy 1st Statement: It bothers me when American Jews disagree publicly with Israeli government policy. 38 2nd Statement: It does not bother me when American Jews disagree publicly with Israeli government policy. Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.<br>
slide40. Iranian Sanctions Need More Time vs. Failed 1st Statement: Before setting red lines that, if crossed, will trigger an American military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the United States needs to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to work. 39 2nd Statement: Diplomacy and sanctions have failed to stop Iran from continuing its efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and it is now time for the United States to set red lines that, if crossed, will trigger an American military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.<br>
slide41. U.S. Focus in the Middle East Iran and Israel-Palestinian Conflict Warrant Same Attention Which of the following statements best describes how you feel about how the U.S. should focus its attention in the Middle East? 40<br>
slide42. United Nations Relationship with Israel Thinking about Israel and the United Nations, overall do you think the United Nations treats Israel fairly or unfairly? 41<br>
slide43. United States Vote to Grant Non-Member Observer Palestinian State Status As you may know, Palestinian leaders are planning to ask the United Nations General Assembly to grant non-member observer state status to an independent Palestinian state. If such a vote takes place, do you think the United States should vote – 42<br>
slide44. Support for Two–State Solution 43<br>
slide45. Support for a Two-State Solution (SPLIT A) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. 44<br>
slide46. Support for a Two-State Solution with East Jerusalem as Capital of Palestinian State (SPLIT B) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with its capital in East Jerusalem. 45<br>
slide47. Two-State Solution Necessary for Israel’s Security and Jewish Democratic Character A two-state solution is necessary to strengthen Israeli security and ensure Israel’s Jewish democratic character 46<br>
slide48. Two-State Solution Important for American Security A two-state solution is an important national security interest for the United States. 47<br>
National, Ohio, and Florida Post-Election Jewish Surveys November 7, 2012<br>
slide2. Methodology National survey of 800 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2010; margin of error +/- 3.5 percent
Ohio statewide survey of 600 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2012; margin of error +/- 4 percent
Florida statewide survey of 600 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2012; margin of error +/- 4 percent
National survey administered by email invitation to web-based panel of 900,000 Americans; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study
Ohio and Florida surveys conducted by landline telephones and cell phones, calling a random sample of registered voters with Jewish names and people who self-identify as Jewish in consumer data that has been appended to the state voter files; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study 1<br>
slide3. Bottom Line Takeaway of 2012 Jewish Vote In an election where Obama enjoyed a narrow victory with the overall American electorate, he had an overwhelming victory with the Jewish electorate.
The shift in Obama’s Jewish vote from 2008 reflects shifts in other constituencies such as such as college graduates, whites, Independents, voters under 30, and Catholics.
Obama is more trusted than Romney on all issues, ranging from Social Security and Medicare (65-26) and the economy (56-32) to dealing with Iran (58-26) and Israel (53-31).
Ultimately, the Jewish vote was driven by a mixture of strong support for President Obama (67 percent job approval), a growing sense that he is turning things around for the country (55 percent right direction), positive feelings toward the Democratic Party (54 favorable / 33 unfavorable), and intense opposition to Mitt Romney (29 favorable / 62 unfavorable) and the Republican Party (26 favorable / 64 unfavorable). 2<br>
slide4. Key Findings Nationwide and in two key swing states, overwhelming support for Obama and Democratic candidates among American Jews.
Obama receives 70 percent of Jewish votes nationally, 69 percent in Ohio, and 68 percent in Florida
Senator Sherrod Brown receives 71 percent in Ohio ;Senator Bill Nelson receives 72 percent in Florida
Economy is top voting issue (53 percent), followed by health care (32 percent), Social Security and Medicare (23 percent), and the deficit and government spending (20 percent). Israel is top issue for 10 percent of Jewish voters and Iran is top issue for 2 percent.
Jews hold progressive views on resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Strong support for U.S. playing an active role to help resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, even if it means publicly stating disagreements with the Israelis and the Arabs (69 percent support)
76 percent support the U.S. putting forth a peace plan that proposes borders and security
72 percent support comprehensive agreement along the lines of the Clinton parameters
Addressing Iranian threat elicits mixed views among Jews– 47 percent want to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to work before setting red lines, 35 percent think diplomacy and sanctions have failed and it’s now time to set red lines. 3<br>
slide5. 2012 Jewish Vote
National, Ohio, and Florida 4<br>
slide6. 2012 Presidential Vote 5<br>
slide7. President and Congress Vote - Nationwide 6<br>
slide8. 2008 and 2012 Election Results Comparison Between Jewish and Other Constituencies 7<br>
slide9. Historical Perspective: Jewish Vote in Presidential Elections Exit polls have reported that the Democratic presidential candidate has received between 64 and 80 percent of the Jewish vote since 1972, except 1980
Average Democratic vote share: 70 percent 8 Source: Exit poll data<br>
slide10. Impact of the Jewish Vote 9 Source: 2008 exit polls<br>
slide11. Presidential and Senate Vote Ohio / Florida 10<br>
slide12. Very Few Romney Voters Considered Obama (ROMNEY VOTERS) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for Barack Obama for President? How seriously did you think about voting for Barack Obama -- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously? 11<br>
slide13. Sizable Number of Obama Voters Considered Romney (OBAMA VOTERS) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for Mitt Romney for President? (IF YES) How seriously did you think about voting for Mitt Romney-- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously? 12<br>
slide14. Presidential Financial Contributions – 2008 and 2012 In the 2008 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of John McCain? In the 2012 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of Mitt Romney? 13<br>
slide15. Driving Factors Behind the Jewish Vote 14<br>
slide16. Country Direction Growing Sense that US is Headed in Right Direction 15<br>
slide17. Top TWO Issues in Deciding 2012 Presidential Vote 16<br>
slide18. Obama and Congress Job Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama/Congress is doing? 17 31<br>
slide19. Obama Handling of Arab-Israeli Conflict National Now, something different. Which of the following statements best describes how you view President Obama’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict 18<br>
slide20. Obama Handling of Arab-Israeli Conflict National, Ohio, Florida Which of the following statements best describes how you view President Obama’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict? 19<br>
slide21. Favorability Ratings - National 20 Bill Clinton Barack
Obama Benjamin
Netanyahu The
Democratic
Party Joe
Biden<br>
slide22. Favorability – National, Ohio, and Florida 21<br>
slide23. Obama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our Country National Do you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney would do a better job on this issue? 22<br>
slide24. Brown vs. Mandel on Issues Facing Our Country Ohio Do you think Democrat Sherrod Brown or Republican Josh Mandel would do a better job on this issue? 23 23<br>
slide25. Do you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney would do a better job on this issue? Obama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our Country Florida 24 30 34<br>
slide26. Impact of Attacks on Obama and Democrats 25<br>
slide27. Awareness of Ads Criticizing Obama on Israel National / Ohio Now, I’d like to ask you something different. During the presidential election, did you see any television advertisements or receive any mail pieces criticizing President Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel? 26<br>
slide28. Impact of Ads Criticizing Obama on Israel National / Ohio Did any of these television advertisements or mail pieces criticizing Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who saw an ad or received mail) 27<br>
slide29. Awareness of Netanyahu Advertisements Florida Now, I’d like to ask you something different. During the presidential election, did you see any television advertisements with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talking about Iran? 28<br>
slide30. Impact of Netanyahu Advertisements Florida Did any of these television advertisements with Prime Minister Netanyahu make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who saw an ad or received mail) 29<br>
slide31. Netanyahu Involvement with Presidential Campaign National Based on your own observation of the 2012 Presidential election, do you think Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took steps to try and help one of the candidates running for U.S. President? 30<br>
slide32. Impact of Netanyahu Involvement Did Prime Minister Netanyahu’s efforts to help make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who felt that Netanyahu tried to help a candidate) 31<br>
slide33. United States Role in Resolving
Arab-Israeli Conflict 32<br>
slide34. United States Role in Resolving Arab-Israeli Conflict 33<br>
slide35. Support for Bill Clinton as Middle East Envoy Imagine for a minute that the winning U.S. Presidential candidate appoints former President Bill Clinton to serve as a special Middle East Peace Envoy with the responsibility of bringing Israelis and Palestinians together to negotiate a final status agreement. Regardless of who you voted for in this year’s Presidential election, would you support or oppose the appointment of Bill Clinton to serve as a special Middle East Peace Envoy? 34<br>
slide36. Majority Support Comprehensive Peace Agreement As you may know, on a few occasions during the past 10 years, Israeli, Palestinian, and American negotiators came close to reaching a final status peace agreement but ultimately fell short. The details of that agreement include: 35 A demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza
Internationally recognized borders based on the borders that existed in 1967, with mutually agreed land swaps that allow for most Jewish settlers in the West Bank to be inside Israel while the Palestinians get comparable land areas in return
Palestinian neighborhoods in Jerusalem become part of the new Palestinian state while Israel retains control of Jewish neighborhoods and the Western Wall in Jerusalem
International forces to monitor the new Palestinian state and border crossings
Financial compensation for Palestinian refugees while allowing some refugees to return to Israel if they meet specific family reunification criteria and the Israeli government approves<br>
slide37. Peace is Core US Interest and US Should Use Assertive Diplomacy Instead of Leaving it to Israelis and Palestinians Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right 36<br>
slide38. U.S. Negotiation Role Fair and Impartial Broker vs. Siding with Israel Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right 37<br>
slide39. American Jews Support Public Debate Over Israel Policy 1st Statement: It bothers me when American Jews disagree publicly with Israeli government policy. 38 2nd Statement: It does not bother me when American Jews disagree publicly with Israeli government policy. Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.<br>
slide40. Iranian Sanctions Need More Time vs. Failed 1st Statement: Before setting red lines that, if crossed, will trigger an American military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the United States needs to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to work. 39 2nd Statement: Diplomacy and sanctions have failed to stop Iran from continuing its efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and it is now time for the United States to set red lines that, if crossed, will trigger an American military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.<br>
slide41. U.S. Focus in the Middle East Iran and Israel-Palestinian Conflict Warrant Same Attention Which of the following statements best describes how you feel about how the U.S. should focus its attention in the Middle East? 40<br>
slide42. United Nations Relationship with Israel Thinking about Israel and the United Nations, overall do you think the United Nations treats Israel fairly or unfairly? 41<br>
slide43. United States Vote to Grant Non-Member Observer Palestinian State Status As you may know, Palestinian leaders are planning to ask the United Nations General Assembly to grant non-member observer state status to an independent Palestinian state. If such a vote takes place, do you think the United States should vote – 42<br>
slide44. Support for Two–State Solution 43<br>
slide45. Support for a Two-State Solution (SPLIT A) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. 44<br>
slide46. Support for a Two-State Solution with East Jerusalem as Capital of Palestinian State (SPLIT B) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with its capital in East Jerusalem. 45<br>
slide47. Two-State Solution Necessary for Israel’s Security and Jewish Democratic Character A two-state solution is necessary to strengthen Israeli security and ensure Israel’s Jewish democratic character 46<br>
slide48. Two-State Solution Important for American Security A two-state solution is an important national security interest for the United States. 47<br>