The strive for European sovereignty Hertie School
Description: The strive for European sovereignty Hertie School of Governance Trends of German Foreign Policy September 18, 2022 Sovereignty? Sovereignty: Internal sovereignty: The supreme power by which an independent state is governed and from which
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slide1. The strive for European sovereignty Hertie School of Governance “Trends of German Foreign Policy“ September 18, 2022<br>
slide2. Sovereignty? Sovereignty:
Internal sovereignty: The supreme power by which an independent state is governed and from which all specific political power are derived
External sovereignty: The intentional independence of a state, combined with the right and power of regulating its affairs without foreign interference.<br>
slide4. Security A Europe that guarantees security in all its aspects
In terms of defence, Europe must have a joint intervention force, a joint defence budget and a joint doctrine for action. We need to encourage the swift creation of a European Defence Fund, permanent structured cooperation, and supplement them with a European intervention initiative that better integrates our armed forces at all stages.
In the fight against terrorism, Europe must bring our intelligence capabilities closer by creating a European intelligence academy.
Security must be guaranteed, together, in all its aspects: Europe must have a joint civil protection force.<br>
slide5. migration A Europe that addresses the migration challenge
We must create a common area of borders, asylum and migrations, to effectively control our borders, welcome refugees with dignity, integrate them fully and swiftly send those who are not eligible for asylum back to their home countries.
We must create a European Asylum Office, which accelerates and streamlines our procedures; set up interconnected files and secure biometric identification documents; gradually establish European border police that ensure rigorous management of borders and the return of those who cannot stay; and fund a vast European training and integration programme for refugees.<br>
slide6. Africa and mediterranean Europe that looks towards Africa and the Mediterranean
Europe must have a foreign policy that focuses on certain priorities: first of all, the Mediterranean region and Africa.
It must develop a new partnership with Africa, based on education, health, and the energy transition.<br>
slide7. Sustainable development An exemplary Europe regarding sustainable development
Europe must take the lead in an efficient and equitable ecological transition.
It must encourage investments in this transition (transport, housing, industry, agriculture, etc.) by setting a fair price for carbon: a minimum, meaningful price within its borders; and a European carbon tax at its borders to ensure equity between its producers and their competitors.
Europe must set up an industry programme to support clean vehicles and the necessary infrastructures (charging stations, etc.).
It must guarantee its food sovereignty, by reforming the common agricultural policy and by setting up a joint monitoring body that ensures food security for Europeans.<br>
slide8. Innovation and digitalization A Europe of innovation and regulation adapted to the digital world
Europe must lead rather than undergo this transformation, by promoting its model within globalization, a model combining innovation and regulation.
It must have an agency for breakthrough innovation, jointly financing new research fields, such as artificial intelligence, or unexplored fields.
It must guarantee equity and trust in the digital transformation, by reviewing its fiscal systems (taxing digital technology corporations) and by regulating the major platforms.<br>
slide9. Economic and monetary power A Europe standing as an economic and monetary power
We must make the euro area the heart of Europe's economic power in the world.
In addition to national reforms, it must be equipped with instruments that will make it an area of growth and stability, in particular a budget that finances shared investments and will guarantee stabilization against economic shocks.<br>
slide10. The (Non?) Response from Berlin “The times in which we can rely on others is somewhat gone. We have to take our fate into our own hands.”
Illusion of independence?
“We depend on Turkey. Turkey depends on us. Everyone depends somehow. Assuming anything else neglects reality.”
“Silent consensus” on most issues, except the scope of economic integration<br>
slide11. Europe: Better than its reputation I Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO):
Offers a legal framework to jointly plan, develop and invest in shared defense capability projects
European Defense Fund (EDF)
Budget of €8 billion (2.7 billion to fund collaborative defence research and 5.3 billion to fund collaborative capability development projects complementing national contributions)
Plurilateral defense procurement
FCAS and MGCS
Defense budget
Europe-wide increase. Germany: Even in midst of pandemic, defense spending will rise by 1.3 billion (overall: 53 billion Euro).<br>
slide12. European Union Global Strategy (2016) defines interests, values and ambition
SOTEU (2015) provides a parliamentary forum for discourse
European External Action Service is growing in personnel, budget and institutional capacity (EU Delegations instead of individual representations of the institutions)
IntCen: civilian intelligence capability. Personnel seconded by member states. No own collection capability. Provides analysis primarily on strategic terrorism threat assessments and hybrid risks.
EUMS: Military lead of EU operations, e.g. Operation Artemis (Congo); Althea (Bosnia-Herzegowina), Concordia (Macedonia) Europe: Better than its reputation II<br>
slide13. And still: gridlock Consensus required to pass sanctions and other legally binding acts. Negative example: Malta blocking Belarus sanctions to gain concessions in migration policy issues
National interests vary quite significantly (Libya: ITA/FRA; Turkey: GER/FRA; NS2: GER/POL+Baltics
Qualified majority (QM) voting?
Upgrading the “European Intervention Initiative”?
Europeanization of “military mobility”?
Limits of supranationalization (national constitutions / core of sovereignty & statehood)<br>
slide14. The berlin Quagmire I Value of international partnerships is determined by support in great power competition Value of partnership is determined by steps towards European sovereignty<br>
slide15. The berlin quagmire ii Paris:
Inauguration of new German government opens window of opportunity to make strides towards “European sovereignty”
Macron needs results. 2022 campaign: Polarization strategy pro-European vs. contra-European
Argument: Pro-European French President is in the core national interest of Germany.
Litmus test for European sovereignty: relationship vis-à-vis China<br>
slide16. The berlin quagmire iii Washington:
Return of founding narrative of the transatlantic partnership: joint effort to contain a systemic rival in the East
What truly binds together both sides of the Atlantic: Beijing has answered the question for us.
Overwhelming indicator for Washington: What can you do in our great power struggle with China?
“Alliance of Democracies”, “Eastern Quad”, ”AUKUS”: Different name, but same goal.<br>
slide17. Example i: WHO Wuhan Mission of Origin First diplomatic initiative of the Biden White House: Find consensus among global democracies for strong language on China´s behavior regarding the WHO mission of origin (no access to raw data, limited access to concerned lab assistants, etc.)
Exhibit A for lack of coordination among EU member states:
East Europe: Let´s join right now!
France: We are not the annex of America!
Germany: We don´t want to antagonize anybody!
Result: USA perplex, Europe divided, China amused.<br>
slide18. Example ii: NATO SUMMit 2021 Premiere: China is designated as “challenge to Alliance security”.
Trade-off: Eastern NATO members join US proposal on China in exchange for tough language on Russia
Macron: “Maybe my map has a problem, but from my perspective, China does not belong to the Atlantic area. (…) Europe will neither become a vassal state of China nor will we adjust our Pacific policy according to the United States.”<br>
slide19. Germany´s core interest i No global breakup into two separate political hemispheres:
Bipolarity fundamentally contradicts the notion of a liberal, rules-based, multilateral order. With two separate sets of rules, the international system would lose its inclusive character.
Two opposing systems (“de-coupling”) would significantly damage the export-driven model of German economy.<br>
slide20. Germany´s core interest ii Cohesion of liberal democracies:
Cohesion of democracies is a key component for the survival of the rules-based order as we know it
Cohesion of liberal democracies as an end in itself
Permanent split between “the West” would severely weaken our ability to set standards, find common ground and tackle joint challenges<br>
slide21. q&a Lead questions for our discussion:
If desirable, what steps could be taken towards a greater degree of “European sovereignty”?
Are European sovereignty and strong EU-US relations, if desirable, mutually exclusive?
What is your policy recommendation for the new German government to solve its quagmire?<br>
slide2. Sovereignty? Sovereignty:
Internal sovereignty: The supreme power by which an independent state is governed and from which all specific political power are derived
External sovereignty: The intentional independence of a state, combined with the right and power of regulating its affairs without foreign interference.<br>
slide4. Security A Europe that guarantees security in all its aspects
In terms of defence, Europe must have a joint intervention force, a joint defence budget and a joint doctrine for action. We need to encourage the swift creation of a European Defence Fund, permanent structured cooperation, and supplement them with a European intervention initiative that better integrates our armed forces at all stages.
In the fight against terrorism, Europe must bring our intelligence capabilities closer by creating a European intelligence academy.
Security must be guaranteed, together, in all its aspects: Europe must have a joint civil protection force.<br>
slide5. migration A Europe that addresses the migration challenge
We must create a common area of borders, asylum and migrations, to effectively control our borders, welcome refugees with dignity, integrate them fully and swiftly send those who are not eligible for asylum back to their home countries.
We must create a European Asylum Office, which accelerates and streamlines our procedures; set up interconnected files and secure biometric identification documents; gradually establish European border police that ensure rigorous management of borders and the return of those who cannot stay; and fund a vast European training and integration programme for refugees.<br>
slide6. Africa and mediterranean Europe that looks towards Africa and the Mediterranean
Europe must have a foreign policy that focuses on certain priorities: first of all, the Mediterranean region and Africa.
It must develop a new partnership with Africa, based on education, health, and the energy transition.<br>
slide7. Sustainable development An exemplary Europe regarding sustainable development
Europe must take the lead in an efficient and equitable ecological transition.
It must encourage investments in this transition (transport, housing, industry, agriculture, etc.) by setting a fair price for carbon: a minimum, meaningful price within its borders; and a European carbon tax at its borders to ensure equity between its producers and their competitors.
Europe must set up an industry programme to support clean vehicles and the necessary infrastructures (charging stations, etc.).
It must guarantee its food sovereignty, by reforming the common agricultural policy and by setting up a joint monitoring body that ensures food security for Europeans.<br>
slide8. Innovation and digitalization A Europe of innovation and regulation adapted to the digital world
Europe must lead rather than undergo this transformation, by promoting its model within globalization, a model combining innovation and regulation.
It must have an agency for breakthrough innovation, jointly financing new research fields, such as artificial intelligence, or unexplored fields.
It must guarantee equity and trust in the digital transformation, by reviewing its fiscal systems (taxing digital technology corporations) and by regulating the major platforms.<br>
slide9. Economic and monetary power A Europe standing as an economic and monetary power
We must make the euro area the heart of Europe's economic power in the world.
In addition to national reforms, it must be equipped with instruments that will make it an area of growth and stability, in particular a budget that finances shared investments and will guarantee stabilization against economic shocks.<br>
slide10. The (Non?) Response from Berlin “The times in which we can rely on others is somewhat gone. We have to take our fate into our own hands.”
Illusion of independence?
“We depend on Turkey. Turkey depends on us. Everyone depends somehow. Assuming anything else neglects reality.”
“Silent consensus” on most issues, except the scope of economic integration<br>
slide11. Europe: Better than its reputation I Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO):
Offers a legal framework to jointly plan, develop and invest in shared defense capability projects
European Defense Fund (EDF)
Budget of €8 billion (2.7 billion to fund collaborative defence research and 5.3 billion to fund collaborative capability development projects complementing national contributions)
Plurilateral defense procurement
FCAS and MGCS
Defense budget
Europe-wide increase. Germany: Even in midst of pandemic, defense spending will rise by 1.3 billion (overall: 53 billion Euro).<br>
slide12. European Union Global Strategy (2016) defines interests, values and ambition
SOTEU (2015) provides a parliamentary forum for discourse
European External Action Service is growing in personnel, budget and institutional capacity (EU Delegations instead of individual representations of the institutions)
IntCen: civilian intelligence capability. Personnel seconded by member states. No own collection capability. Provides analysis primarily on strategic terrorism threat assessments and hybrid risks.
EUMS: Military lead of EU operations, e.g. Operation Artemis (Congo); Althea (Bosnia-Herzegowina), Concordia (Macedonia) Europe: Better than its reputation II<br>
slide13. And still: gridlock Consensus required to pass sanctions and other legally binding acts. Negative example: Malta blocking Belarus sanctions to gain concessions in migration policy issues
National interests vary quite significantly (Libya: ITA/FRA; Turkey: GER/FRA; NS2: GER/POL+Baltics
Qualified majority (QM) voting?
Upgrading the “European Intervention Initiative”?
Europeanization of “military mobility”?
Limits of supranationalization (national constitutions / core of sovereignty & statehood)<br>
slide14. The berlin Quagmire I Value of international partnerships is determined by support in great power competition Value of partnership is determined by steps towards European sovereignty<br>
slide15. The berlin quagmire ii Paris:
Inauguration of new German government opens window of opportunity to make strides towards “European sovereignty”
Macron needs results. 2022 campaign: Polarization strategy pro-European vs. contra-European
Argument: Pro-European French President is in the core national interest of Germany.
Litmus test for European sovereignty: relationship vis-à-vis China<br>
slide16. The berlin quagmire iii Washington:
Return of founding narrative of the transatlantic partnership: joint effort to contain a systemic rival in the East
What truly binds together both sides of the Atlantic: Beijing has answered the question for us.
Overwhelming indicator for Washington: What can you do in our great power struggle with China?
“Alliance of Democracies”, “Eastern Quad”, ”AUKUS”: Different name, but same goal.<br>
slide17. Example i: WHO Wuhan Mission of Origin First diplomatic initiative of the Biden White House: Find consensus among global democracies for strong language on China´s behavior regarding the WHO mission of origin (no access to raw data, limited access to concerned lab assistants, etc.)
Exhibit A for lack of coordination among EU member states:
East Europe: Let´s join right now!
France: We are not the annex of America!
Germany: We don´t want to antagonize anybody!
Result: USA perplex, Europe divided, China amused.<br>
slide18. Example ii: NATO SUMMit 2021 Premiere: China is designated as “challenge to Alliance security”.
Trade-off: Eastern NATO members join US proposal on China in exchange for tough language on Russia
Macron: “Maybe my map has a problem, but from my perspective, China does not belong to the Atlantic area. (…) Europe will neither become a vassal state of China nor will we adjust our Pacific policy according to the United States.”<br>
slide19. Germany´s core interest i No global breakup into two separate political hemispheres:
Bipolarity fundamentally contradicts the notion of a liberal, rules-based, multilateral order. With two separate sets of rules, the international system would lose its inclusive character.
Two opposing systems (“de-coupling”) would significantly damage the export-driven model of German economy.<br>
slide20. Germany´s core interest ii Cohesion of liberal democracies:
Cohesion of democracies is a key component for the survival of the rules-based order as we know it
Cohesion of liberal democracies as an end in itself
Permanent split between “the West” would severely weaken our ability to set standards, find common ground and tackle joint challenges<br>
slide21. q&a Lead questions for our discussion:
If desirable, what steps could be taken towards a greater degree of “European sovereignty”?
Are European sovereignty and strong EU-US relations, if desirable, mutually exclusive?
What is your policy recommendation for the new German government to solve its quagmire?<br>