UGANDA’S EXPORT PERFORMANCE DURING THE COVID-19

Transcript:UGANDA’S EXPORT PERFORMANCE DURING THE COVID-19:
UGANDA’S EXPORT PERFORMANCE DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC, AND POLICIES TO DRIVE EXPORT GROWTH Presentation by Emmanuel Mutahunga at the Economic Growth Forum V Organized by Ministry of Finance, Planning & Economic Development , and the International Growth Centre January 13th 2022 12/13/2021 1 Presentation Layout COVID-19 Times Global trade performance amidst COVID-19 Uganda’s export performance during covid-19 Using trade to drive recovery Policies to drive export growth 12/13/2021 2 COVID-19 Times Corona virus which causes COVID-19 was first detected in China, and first reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11th January 2020 Rapidly spread to many other countries in the world and on 11th March 2020, the World Health Organization declared it a pandemic 12/13/2021 3 COVID-19 Times On 21st March 2020, Uganda registered the first case of COVID-19; and scaled up her efforts to stop the spread of the virus in the country COVID-19 Containment Measures, globally, have manifested in form of: Travel Restrictions, Ban/restrictions on Social activities, Home confinements, Closure of non-essential businesses, Factory scale-downs, social distancing requirements, mandatory health checks, e.t.c 12/13/2021 4 General Impact of COVID-19 General reduction of labour supply Rise in trade costs Reduction in demand and supply in sectors most affected by the containment measures *** rise in trade costs is mainly due to heightened border controls and restrictions to personal travel, ultimately resulting in reduction in demand for durable manufactured/industrial goods - implying a significant negative impact on the industry/manufacturing sector 12/13/2021 5 General Impact of COVID-19 Increased costs of transporting goods and services, mainly due to four reasons: Air cargo prices have increased because of the lack of cargo-belly capacity in passenger planes Because of increased border controls, the time in transit for goods has increased Trade costs for services are increasing because of severe travel restrictions Most of the equipment used in industrial production requires travel of specialized workers 12/13/2021 6 General Impact of COVID-19 The WTO World Trade Report 2021 notes: COVID-19 pandemic delivered unprecedented shocks to global supply chains and trade relations among countries In 2020, the value of global trade in goods and services in nominal dollar terms fell by 9.6%, while global GDP fell by 3.3% - the most severe recession since World War II 12/13/2021 7 General Impact of COVID-19 According to the WTO’s most recent forecast, global economic output (at market exchange rates) is projected to recover by 5.3% in 2021 -