Vietnamese agriculture and global integration

Transcript:Vietnamese agriculture and global integration:
Vietnamese agriculture and global integration David Vanzetti and Pham Lan Huong Australian National University and independent consultant National CGE Workshop Melbourne, 7th October 2013 Integration and structural adjustment Vietnam is signing up to bilateral, regional and multilateral trade agreements Structural adjustment the movement of factors of production (capital, labour and land) between sectors. Declining sectors? Unemployment of factors, particularly labour? 2 Objectives Economic integration (four FTAs) Assess macro and sectoral impacts Identify need for structural adjustment 3 Global general equilibrium model GTAP Version 8, base 2007 Bilateral trade and tariffs (2010) Includes preferential tariffs (needed for FTAs) Whole economy Includes resource (land, labour, capital, natural resources) constraints Limitation - each country: one region, one household 4 Scenarios Four FTAs AFTA China Korea Japan All simultaneously Each FTA without exemptions 5 Methodology Based on negotiated FTA schedules Specify bilateral tariff cuts for 5113 products Aggregate (trade weighted) to 24 sectors by 19 regions using TASTE Specify baseline growth assumptions Specify labour and capital market assumptions Simulate Report 6 Exemptions Scheduled tariff cuts have exemptions for sensitive products Few in number but cover large volume of trade These differ by partner Specify HS 6 level tariff cuts (5113 products) from bilateral applied tariff schedules as negotiated 7 Sectoral coverage 8 Reported results Welfare (national income) Imports Exports Employment and wage rates Tariff revenue Sectoral effects (production and trade) 9 Baseline 10 Schematic representation. Not to scale. Baseline in steps 11 Change in FTA tariffs on Vietnam’s exports 12 Source. GTAP 2010. Change in tariffs on Vietnam’s imports 13 Results Macro Welfare Exports Imports Tariff revenue Real wages Agricultural sector Output Exports Imports 14 Vietnam welfare gains in 2017 relative to 2012 15 Income growth important Vietnam trade impacts in 2017 relative to base 16 Growth in imports exceed imports Vietnam trade balance in 2017 relative to base 17 Welfare with and without exemptions in 2017 relative to base 18 Japanese rice tariffs Real wages in 2017 relative to base 19 Fixed employment for skilled labour Vietnam tariff revenue in 2017 relative to base 20 Agricultural sector impacts Output Exports Imports Use of land, labour and capital Factor prices 21 Change in output in 2017 relative to 2012 22 Textiles Cassava Change in exports in 2017 relative to 2012 23 Switch to cassava from other crops Change in imports in 2017 relative to 2012 24 Processed agriculture. Feed. Use of factors in agriculture