war imminent Revisiting Vietnamese n ationalism Tuong Vu University of Oregon Nature of Vietnamese nationalism Earlier view A ncient animosity toward China New scholarship Traditional SinoAnnamese relations mostly peaceful ID: 184399
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Slide1
Is a Sino-Vietnamese war imminent? Revisiting Vietnamese nationalism
Tuong Vu
University of OregonSlide2
Nature of Vietnamese nationalismEarlier view: Ancient animosity toward China
New scholarship:
Traditional Sino-Annamese relations mostly peaceful
Annamese elites proud of being part of Sinic civilization
S
truggle for local autonomy/independence not understood in ethnic or national termsSlide3
Nationalism & communismModern Viet national consciousness emerged in 1900sViet communists = patriots who identified national interests with working class interests
Successfully mobilized popular nationalism
Worshipped Mao in the 1950s but accused China of chauvinism in the 1970s
War with China 1979-88Slide4
Back into China’s foldNew leadership (1986) embraced economic reform but remained loyal to socialism
6/1989: asked Gorbachev to convene conference to save socialist camp
9/1990: traveled secretly to Chengdu to propose ideological alliance with China to save socialism
China: “chauvinist yet socialist, better than imperialist US”Slide5
Foreign Policy 1991-2007Officially: “friends of all nations”
Reality: closest to China
Deep suspicion of US
and fear of US invasionSlide6
Imagined US Invasion
“[In the case of war,] it is certain that the enemy would attack us first from the air on a large scale, with guided missiles and advanced aircrafts armed with smart bombs. Unlike bombings of
the North
[during the Vietnam War], the enemy would not increase the intensity of the bombing gradually but would … strike at all targets at once—first at air defense system, airports… then at economic and political targets all over the country, leading to economic paralysis and political instability. Taking advantage of this situation, domestic counter-revolutionary forces would launch an uprising and seize our local governments in strategic locations. The enemy could then deploy rapid reactionary forces to help them establish a government and a base, then call for international support to overthrow our regime.”
(JPD, 2002
)Slide7
Official narrative about the nation
Nation possesses unique and exceptional qualities
Nation has no choice but socialism, no future without the Party
China is long-time comrade vs. US still plotting against VietnamSlide8
New nationalist movementParticipants: Intellectuals, retired officials, urban youth, farmers robbed of land, religious groupsDemands: government take strong actions to defend territory, allow peaceful protests & freedom of speech, tackle official corruption and land grabbingSlide9
Debunking myths inn
ew nationalist discourse
“After
at least two thousand years of existence
… Vietnam is still
one of the poorest and most backward country in the world. But
…that’s
not as frightening to me
[as the fact that our
country] has never been anything but poor and backward. It was like that when I was born. It was like that when my parents, grandparents, and great-grandparents were born… Greece is now the poorest country in Europe, but that’s not always the case. Russia is now beset with problems, but that’s not always the case either. Only Vietnam
…” (Pham Thi Hoai)Slide10
Rescue nation from Party’s grip
[
The Party]
drew
a battle line for an ideological war within the body of the Vietnamese nation; sacrificed Vietnamese lives in that war; yielded ancestors’ sacred territories to Chinese communists to maintain
power
…
The
history of the VCP is a history in which enormous interests of the Vietnamese nation were sacrificed for the sake of the Party’s own, narrow
interests (Col. Pham
Dinh
Trong) Slide11
Hanoi, 12/2007 Slide12
Ho Chi Minh City, 03/2008Slide13
Hanoi, July 2011Slide14
Hanoi’s politics of copingTop leaders held different views and slow to reassess
situation
Two
broad,
cross-cutting factions:
loyalist/pro-China: Party, propaganda, security, military?
pragmatic/rent-seeking: state, provincial leaders, SOE managersSlide15
Hanoi’s policies since 2005Overriding goal: stability & status quo, not to wreck relations with China Appease
China on basis of shared ideology & interests
Warm up to US, Japan, Russia, India
Increase defense spending
Suppress anti-China protestsSlide16Slide17
Is war imminent?The good news: No, not war any time soonThe bad news (for some Vietnamese): Vietnam acquiesces in China’s expansion of control over South China
Sea
The risks for Hanoi:
China’s excessive use of force
P
rotests will continue & may destabilize the regime