We Need Energy Technology Breakthroughs to

Transcript:We Need Energy Technology Breakthroughs to:
We Need Energy Technology Breakthroughs to Effectively Stem Climate Change Mike Toman Research Department, World Bank iSEE Congress, University of Illinois September 13, 2016 Responsibility for the content of this presentation is mine alone and the views expressed should not be attributed to the World Bank or any member countries. Key conclusions Reducing global greenhouse gases enough to significantly mitigate climate change risks will require complete global energy transformation, starting soon There are important limits to economically feasible mitigation actions at present given costs of energy system emissions reductions Additional international cooperation to develop more affordable low-carbon energy options is crucial to avoid dangerous warming 2 Key conclusions (2) Putting more emphasis on sectoral and technology-focused measures for emissions reduction may be effective for building international cooperation Lower-income countries still striving to meet basic needs should not be expected to bear significant cost burdens for GHG mitigation 3 Climate change and other environmental risks 4 Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8°C over the 21st century – causing significant risks for the environment and human well-being. 5 Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4 Source: [2] Other environmental risks matter too 6 [3] Energy priorities for most developing countries Improved access to affordable, clean energy Basic access for cooking, heating, lighting Expanded access to electricity for growth Improved reliability of electricity availability Mitigate productivity as well as direct welfare losses Increase investment in modern growth sectors Financial sustainability of sector Subsidy, other governance reforms Improved energy efficiency that lowers costs 7 Possibilities for and Potential Costs of GHG mitigation 8 Regional patterns of GHG emissions are shifting along with changes in the world economy. 9 Based on Figure 1.6 Source: [2] GHG emissions rise with growth in GDP and population; long-standing trend of decarbonisation of energy reversed. 10 Based on Figure 1.7 Source: [2] GHG emissions rise with growth in GDP and population; long-standing trend of decarbonisation of energy reversed. 11 Based on Figure 1.7 Source: [2] Decomposition formula for growth in CO2 emissions 12 An Example: Suppose population growth is 1% per year, and per capita income growth is 3% -- so total income growth is 4% Very modest income growth relative to what is needed to reduce global poverty Sustained energy efficiency improvement of 2% per year is ambitious With that, still need 2% per year reduction in carbon intensity of