What drives power prices in Croatia M.Sc. Borut

Transcript:What drives power prices in Croatia M.Sc. Borut:
What drives power prices in Croatia M.Sc. Borut Janša Mentor EBS d.o.o. Experts for emerging power markets Energy Business Science En.trading 013 Subject What drives power prices in Croatia? Will Croatian wholesale prices rise or fall when joining the EU? What will be the regional impact of Croatia joining the EU markets? The market logic will not change with Croatia joining the EU, but further development of Croatian power market will have impact. Agenda Short Introduction What changes with Croatia entering EU How power price is defined? Croatian power market structure import, export, pricing zones What are the power price drivers in Croatia Hydrology Gas price, Coal price, CO2 price Short Introduction M.Sc. Borut Janša Education Master of Science (MSc), Business Informatics, Finance Bachelor of Science (BS), Theoretical and Mathematical Physics Employment Head of market and portfolio intelligence – Gen I d.o.o. (3 years) Acting risk manager - Gen I d.o.o. (1 year) Power Trader - Gen I d.o.o. (1 year) Fund manager – Ilirika DZU d.o.o. (3 years) IT project manager (9 years) Mentor EBS d.o.o. (Energy, Business, Science) Experts for emerging power markets – SEE region Established in 2000, entered into power business in 2013 Consulting, Education, Regional management, Outsourcing, Prop trading What changes with Croatia entering in EU 2013 Croatia becomes member of EU ETS - EU emissions trading schema Eligible consumers Longer period Local company for trading will not be required More trading companies will increase competition How power price is defined? Wholesale price (market price) Assumption: We have efficient market units are using marginal price – (fuel price, CO2 price, fixed price), the price is optimized. System of marginal prices and merit order The price is defined for each hour Supply (Merit order) / Demand curve Merit order with import of electricity and congestion Merit order with import of electricity and NO congestion Croatia – Net import Croatia is net importer Croatia - Hourly net import High volatility of hourly net import requires hourly approach in price forecasting. source: MKOnline Croatian power market structure Yearly production: 2012: 9,90 TWh 2011: 9,96 TWh Yearly consumption: 2012: 17,31 TWh 2011: 17,50 TWh Estimation of max and min net hourly position: min: - 20oo MW max: + 500 MW Croatia - NTC source: Entsoe.net Total NTC: import: 3500 MW export: 2300 MW Estimation of net hourly position: min: -20oo MW max: + 500 MW Conclusion: Croatia have congestion