IntroductionDevelop a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework that integrates geospatial analysis and stakeholder input to facilitate enhanced community resilience through planning Vulnerabi ID: 845483
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1 CURRENT & FUTURE VULNERABILITY OF SARASO
CURRENT & FUTURE VULNERABILITY OF SARASOTA COUNTY, FL, TO HURRICANE STORM SURGE & SEA LEVEL RISEDr. Tim Fr, Penn State University The University of IdahoDr. Brent Yarnal, Penn State UniversityDr. Nathan Wood, U.S. Geological
2 Survey IntroductionDevelop a comprehensi
Survey IntroductionDevelop a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework that integrates geospatial analysis and stakeholder input to facilitate enhanced community resilience through planning. Vulnerability assessment includin
3 g SLR Decision-support methodology incor
g SLR Decision-support methodology incorporating scientific understanding with value-based human dynamicsInject SLR scenarios into long-range planning activities IntroductionPhase 1Results Phase 2 Results
4 Conclusions Prior Research SLOSH
Conclusions Prior Research SLOSH Model = Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes ModelWu et al. (2002) Kleinosky et al. (2007)IntroductionPhase 1Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Prior R
5 esearch Wood, Church, Frazier, & Yarnal
esearch Wood, Church, Frazier, & Yarnal (2007) IntroductionPhase 1Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Study Area IntroductionPhase 1Results Phase 2 Results Conclusio
6 ns Category 1 SLOSH Introduction
ns Category 1 SLOSH Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 1 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results
7 Phase 2 Results
Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 1 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 1 with 90 cm Sea Lev
8 el Rise Introduction Phase 1
el Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 1 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2
9 Results Conclusions
Results Conclusions Category 2 with SLOSH Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 2 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction
10 Phase 1 Results
Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 2 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results
11 Conclusions Category 2 with 90 cm Sea
Conclusions Category 2 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 2 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phas
12 e 1 Results Phase
e 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 3 with SLOSH Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 3 w
13 ith 30 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction
ith 30 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 3 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results
14 Phase 2 Results
Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 3 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 3 with 120 cm S
15 ea Level Rise Introduction P
ea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 4-5 SLOSH Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Res
16 ults Conclusions Category 4-5
ults Conclusions Category 4-5 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 4-5 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction
17 Phase 1 Results
Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 4-5 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results
18 Conclusions Category 4-5 with
Conclusions Category 4-5 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions All Categories with SLR Introduction Phase 1
19 ResultsPhase 2 Results
ResultsPhase 2 Results Conclusions 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%RidgeDesotoLakesEnglewoodGateEstatesKensingtonParkLakeSarasotaLaurelLongboatKeyNokomisPortSarasotaOspreyPlantationRidgeWoodHeightsSarasotaSar
20 asotaSiestaKeyGateRidgeSarasotaVeniceSou
asotaSiestaKeyGateRidgeSarasotaVeniceSouthgateMeadowsVamoVeniceVeniceGardensWarmMineralUnincorporatedSarasotaCountyPercentTotalPopulationSurgeZoneCategory SLOSH Plus30 Plus60 Plus90 Plus120 Introduction Phase 1ResultsPh
21 ase 2 Results Conc
ase 2 Results Conclusions 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%RidgeDesotoLakesEnglewoodGateEstatesKensingtonParkLakeSarasotaLaurelLongboatKeyNokomisPortSarasotaOspreyPlantationRidgeWoodHeightsSarasotaSarasotaSies
22 taKeyGateRidgeSarasotaVeniceSouthgateMea
taKeyGateRidgeSarasotaVeniceSouthgateMeadowsVamoVeniceVeniceGardensWarmMineralUnincorporatedSarasotaCountyPercentTotalPopulationSurgeZoneCategory SLOSH Plus30 Plus60 Plus90 Plus120 Introduction Phase 1ResultsPhase 2
23 Results Conclusions 0
Results Conclusions 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%RidgeDesotoLakesEnglewoodGateEstatesKensingtonParkLakeSarasotaLaurelLongboatKeyNokomisPortSarasotaOspreyPlantationRidgeWoodHeightsSarasotaSarasotaSiestaKeyGate
24 RidgeSarasotaVeniceSouthgateMeadowsVamoV
RidgeSarasotaVeniceSouthgateMeadowsVamoVeniceVeniceGardensWarmMineralUnincorporatedSarasotaCountyPercentTotalPopulationSurgeZoneCategory SLOSH Plus30 Plus60 Plus90 Plus120 Introduction Phase 1ResultsPhase 2 R
25 esults Conclusions 0%10%20%30
esults Conclusions 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%RidgeDesotoLakesEnglewoodGateEstatesKensingtonParkLakeSarasotaLaurelLongboatKeyNokomisPortSarasotaOspreyPlantationRidgeWoodHeightsSarasotaSarasotaSiestaKeyGateRidgeSara
26 sotaVeniceSouthgateMeadowsVamoVeniceVeni
sotaVeniceSouthgateMeadowsVamoVeniceVeniceGardensWarmMineralUnincorporatedSarasotaCountyPercentTotalPopulationSurgeZoneCategory SLOSH Plus30 Plus60 Plus90 Plus120 Introduction Phase 1ResultsPhase 2 Results
27 Conclusions 0%10%20%30%40%50%60
Conclusions 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%RidgeDesotoLakesEnglewoodGateEstatesKensingtonParkLakeSarasotaLaurelLongboatKeyNokomisPortSarasotaOspreyPlantationRidgeWoodHeightsSarasotaSarasotaSiestaKeyGateRidgeSarasotaVenic
28 eSouthgateMeadowsVamoVeniceVeniceGardens
eSouthgateMeadowsVamoVeniceVeniceGardensWarmMineralUnincorporatedSarasotaCountyPercentPopulationOverSurgeZoneCategory SLOSH Plus30 Plus60 Plus90 Plus120 Introduction Phase 1ResultsPhase 2 Results C
29 onclusions 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
onclusions 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%RidgeDesotoLakesEnglewoodGateEstatesKensingtonParkLakeSarasotaLaurelLongboatKeyNokomisPortSarasotaOspreyPlantationRidgeWoodHeightsSarasotaSarasotaSiestaKeyGateRidgeSarasotaVeniceSouthgate
30 MeadowsVamoVeniceVeniceGardensWarmMinera
MeadowsVamoVeniceVeniceGardensWarmMineralUnincorporatedSarasotaCountyPercentFemaleSurgeZoneCategory SLOSH Plus30 Plus60 Plus90 Plus120 Introduction Phase 1ResultsPhase 2 Results Conclusions 0%10%20
31 %30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%RidgeDesotoLak
%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%RidgeDesotoLakesEnglewoodGateEstatesKensingtonParkLakeSarasotaLaurelLongboatKeyNokomisPortSarasotaOspreyPlantationRidgeWoodHeightsSarasotaSarasotaSiestaKeyGateRidgeSarasotaVeniceSouthgateMeadowsVamoVeniceV
32 eniceGardensWarmMineralUnincorporatedSar
eniceGardensWarmMineralUnincorporatedSarasotaCountyPercentTaxParcelsSurgeZoneCategory SLOSH Plus30 Plus60 Plus90 Plus120 Introduction Phase 1ResultsPhase 2 Results Conclusions 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%7
33 0%80%90%100%RidgeDesotoLakesEnglewoodGat
0%80%90%100%RidgeDesotoLakesEnglewoodGateEstatesKensingtonParkLakeSarasotaLaurelLongboatKeyNokomisPortSarasotaOspreyPlantationRidgeWoodHeightsSarasotaSarasotaSiestaKeyGateRidgeSarasotaVeniceSouthgateMeadowsVamoVeniceVeniceGardensWa
34 rmMineralUnincorporatedSarasotaCountyPer
rmMineralUnincorporatedSarasotaCountyPercentTaxParcelsSurgeZoneCategory SLOSH Plus30 Plus60 Plus90 Plus120 Introduction Phase 1ResultsPhase 2 Results Conclusions 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Ri
35 dgeDesotoLakesEnglewoodGateEstatesKensin
dgeDesotoLakesEnglewoodGateEstatesKensingtonParkLakeSarasotaLaurelLongboatKeyNokomisPortSarasotaOspreyPlantationRidgeWoodHeightsSarasotaSarasotaSiestaKeyGateRidgeSarasotaVeniceSouthgateMeadowsVamoVeniceVeniceGardensWarmMineralUninc
36 orporatedSarasotaCountyPercentTaxParcels
orporatedSarasotaCountyPercentTaxParcelsSurgeZoneCategory SLOSH Plus30 Plus60 Plus90 Plus120 Introduction Phase 1ResultsPhase 2 Results Conclusions 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%RidgeDesotoLakes
37 EnglewoodGateEstatesKensingtonParkLakeSa
EnglewoodGateEstatesKensingtonParkLakeSarasotaLaurelLongboatKeyNokomisPortSarasotaOspreyPlantationRidgeWoodHeightsSarasotaSarasotaSiestaKeyGateRidgeSarasotaVeniceSouthgateMeadowsVamoVeniceVeniceGardensWarmMineralUnincorporatedSaras
38 otaCountyPercentTaxParcelsSurgeZoneCateg
otaCountyPercentTaxParcelsSurgeZoneCategory SLOSH Plus30 Plus60 Plus90 Plus120 Introduction Phase 1ResultsPhase 2 Results Conclusions Sarasota County, Florida: Land Use 2050 Focus Groups33 Particip
39 antsDivided into subgroupsEnvironmentalP
antsDivided into subgroupsEnvironmentalPlannersFacilities & infrastructureGovernment officialsPresentation of research Introduction Phase 1Results Results Conclusions SLOSH Output: All Categories I
40 ntroduction Phase 1Results
ntroduction Phase 1Results Results Conclusions Category 3 With 30, 60, 90, 120, cm of SLR Introduction Phase 1Results Results Conclusions Results: Overall Location
41 of developmentLocation urban service bo
of developmentLocation urban service boundaryInfrastructure inside hazard zonesCost of shifting development Introduction Phase 1Results Phase 2 ResultsConclusions Results: Business ID beach specif
42 ic businessesRebuilding with FEMA restri
ic businessesRebuilding with FEMA restrictionsMoving critical & essential facilitiesImposing mitigation restrictionsIntroduction Phase 1Results Phase 2 ResultsConclusions Results: Environmental Mit
43 igate SLR impacts on environmental areas
igate SLR impacts on environmental areas Transfer development Develop land swapsReplenish wetlands for surge mitigationIntroduction Phase 1Results Phase 2 ResultsConclusions Results: Planners Incre
44 ase density outside hazards zonesIncenti
ase density outside hazards zonesIncentives to steer developmentStrategies to retreat from coastLimited by economic realities Introduction Phase 1Results Phase 2 ResultsConclusions Results: Facilit
45 ies & Infrastructure Mitigate nowMove da
ies & Infrastructure Mitigate nowMove dated infrastructureEnsure functional flexibilityRevise existing Plan better for futureinfrastructure in hazard zonesEvacuationIntroduction Phase 1Results Phase 2
46 ResultsConclusions Results: Governme
ResultsConclusions Results: Government Officials Evaluate placement of urban service Mitigation need vs. cost of moving (facilities & infrastructure)Locate high density residential outside hazard zonesTransportation add more N
47 to S Introduction Phase 1Re
to S Introduction Phase 1Results Phase 2 ResultsConclusions Conclusions Development constricted to hazards zonesSpecific adjustmentsRelax urban service boundarySteer development out of hazards zon
48 esRelocate/replace infrastructureExplore
esRelocate/replace infrastructureExplore evacuation alternatives Urban growth boundaries in coastal communities could contribute to hurricane hazards exposureIntroduction Phase 1Results Phase 2 Res