Doug Murray 3222016 Agenda Changes to Current Trends Scenario Scenario Results Status of Remaining Scenarios Current Trends Changes Since February RPG RetirementsOptions to solve scarcity hours ID: 498798
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Slide1
2016 LTSA Update
Doug Murray
3/22/2016Slide2
Agenda
Changes to Current Trends Scenario
Scenario Results
Status of Remaining ScenariosSlide3
Current Trends Changes Since February RPG
Retirements/Options to solve scarcity hours
Fixed retirements
Economic retirementsAdd extra CTs to limit scarcity hoursDecision was made to model retirements as economic only11,117 MWs of retirementsRechecked GINR for Planning Guide Section 6.9 complianceWind – 740 MWsSolar – 422 MWsGas – 1,148 MWs
3Slide4
Current Trends Results
No unserved energy until 2031
Reserve margins in final year – 10.7%
Built 19,400 MWs solar, 220 MWs Wind4Slide5
Current Trends Results
5
2031 Scarcity HoursSlide6
High Economic Growth Results
Small amounts of unserved energy in 2026 and 2031
Reserve margins in final year – 10.6%
Built 18,300 MWs solar, 100 MWs WindEconomic retirements total 8,639 MWs6Slide7
High Economic Growth Results
7
2031 Scarcity HoursSlide8
Schedule for Generation Expansion
Current Trends, High Economic Growth Scenarios completed
Environmental Mandate in process Slide9
Questions
Contact info:
Doug Murray Julie Jin
douglas.murray@ercot.com
julie.jin@ercot.com
512.248.6908
512.248.3982
Sandeep Borkar
sandeep.borkar@ercot.com
512.248.6642