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2016 LTSA Update 2016 LTSA Update

2016 LTSA Update - PowerPoint Presentation

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2016 LTSA Update - PPT Presentation

Doug Murray 3222016 Agenda Changes to Current Trends Scenario Scenario Results Status of Remaining Scenarios Current Trends Changes Since February RPG RetirementsOptions to solve scarcity hours ID: 498798

results mws trends current mws results current trends scarcity economic 248 murray high growth retirements ercot 512 year solar

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Presentation Transcript

Slide1

2016 LTSA Update

Doug Murray

3/22/2016Slide2

Agenda

Changes to Current Trends Scenario

Scenario Results

Status of Remaining ScenariosSlide3

Current Trends Changes Since February RPG

Retirements/Options to solve scarcity hours

Fixed retirements

Economic retirementsAdd extra CTs to limit scarcity hoursDecision was made to model retirements as economic only11,117 MWs of retirementsRechecked GINR for Planning Guide Section 6.9 complianceWind – 740 MWsSolar – 422 MWsGas – 1,148 MWs

3Slide4

Current Trends Results

No unserved energy until 2031

Reserve margins in final year – 10.7%

Built 19,400 MWs solar, 220 MWs Wind4Slide5

Current Trends Results

5

2031 Scarcity HoursSlide6

High Economic Growth Results

Small amounts of unserved energy in 2026 and 2031

Reserve margins in final year – 10.6%

Built 18,300 MWs solar, 100 MWs WindEconomic retirements total 8,639 MWs6Slide7

High Economic Growth Results

7

2031 Scarcity HoursSlide8

Schedule for Generation Expansion

Current Trends, High Economic Growth Scenarios completed

Environmental Mandate in process Slide9

Questions

Contact info:

Doug Murray Julie Jin

douglas.murray@ercot.com

julie.jin@ercot.com

512.248.6908

512.248.3982

Sandeep Borkar

sandeep.borkar@ercot.com

512.248.6642