Defining sustainable development Sustainability Defining sustainable development in broader terms Sustainability Science Criticisms of current approaches Complexity and complex adaptive systems ID: 163503
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Complexity Theory: The Big Picture in Su..." is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
Slide1
Complexity Theory: The Big Picture in Sustainability Science
Defining sustainable developmentSustainability : Defining sustainable development in broader termsSustainability Science: Criticisms of current approachesComplexity and complex adaptive systemsRelevance of complexity in a sustainability contextA systematic methodology for applying complexity theory in sustainability Complexity science tools for sustainabilityConclusion
ICSD Conference 2015
1
AgendaSlide2
Profile: Dr Fawehinmi
BDS (University of Lagos, Nigeria; 1983)MBA (University of Leicester, UK; 2010)Msc (Merit) Public Policy & Management ; University of London, 2011)Phd Candidate (Public Policy, De Montfort University, Leicester, UK) 2012-till dateICSD Conference 2015Degrees
Executive Education
MIT Sloan Executive Certificate in Leadership & Management; November
2014
Certificate in
Complexity Science;
Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico USA; March 2014Member of The New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
2Slide3
Sustainability Science: Have we got it inside out?
ICSD Conference 2015
3Slide4
What is Sustainable Development?
The concept of Sustainable development according to Martens (2006) is messy ‘ because it is by nature complex, normative, subjective and ambiguous’Sustainable development is development which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs - Brutland Commission (WCED 1987) Robinson (2004) argues that this definition is vague, problematic and incomplete. His perspective privileges the term sustainability over the concept of sustainable development — in the conviction that:The term sustainable development, with its connotations of growth; preferred by governments and the organized private sector, as opposed to the term sustainability favoured by academics and NGO’s suggests an under-appreciation of environmental constraintsICSD Conference 2015
4Slide5
Sustainability: A Wider Definition of Sustainable Development
5Robinson’s (2004) definition of the concept of sustainability is based on ecological/environmental, economic and social imperativesEcological Imperative: To maintain the biophysical carrying capacity of the planet Economic Imperative: To provides an adequate material standard of living of all Social Imperative: To provide systems of governance that propagate the values that people want to live by
ICSD Conference 2015
5Slide6
Sustainability Science :The Challenges
Sustainability science ambitiously aspires to address a range of human-nature challenges disaggregated as:ICSD Conference 2015
Energy crises
Population growth
Health care concerns
Food and security issuesResources production and
management
The environment and climate change
Impact on pollution on health
Ecosystem protection
Biodiversity protectionGlobal economic & financial risks
6Slide7
Criticisms of Sustainability Science
(1) Current approaches to sustainability science have been criticised as being too siloed(2) Sustainability scientists have been charged with approaching sustainability from a premise of inadequate understanding of the complex dynamics of human –environment systemsAccording to Carpenter (2009) : ‘The gaps in knowledge that exists today cannot be addressed through uncoordinated studies of individual components by isolated traditional disciplines’To address these deficiencies, calls are growing for a robust conceptual framework for sustainability science based on an understanding of the phenomenon of complex adaptive systems ― with complexity theory as its theoretical backbone. ICSD Conference 2015
7Slide8
What is Complexity?
Complexity according to Fernando, S.V (1990) is better explained than defined.Sage (2004) suggests that a system can be described as complex: ‘ when we cannot understand it through simple cause-and-effect relationships or other standard methods of system analysis. In a complex system, we cannot reduce the interplay of individual elements to the study of each of them in isolation. Often several different models of the complete system, each at a different level of abstraction are needed ’ ICSD Conference 2015
8Slide9
‘’ I think the next century will be the century of complexity‘‘
— Stephen Hawking, 2000
Complexity Science: The Clarion call
Source
: ladypushing80wordpress.com,
mylovelyquotes.com
ICSD Conference 2015
9Slide10
Complexity Science: The Trailblazers (1940’s —
50’s)
Cybernetics
- Mathematics
Source
: math.tufts.edu, blogerma.ru, optimizacionlinealsergioblogspots.com
ICSD Conference 2015
Norbet
Wiener
W Ross Ashby
Ludwig von
Bertalanffy
Systems Biology & Systems Theory Founder
Cybernetics of the Mind
10Slide11
Challenges of Defining Complexity: A Chinese Box Phenomenon
A generally accepted definition of complexity is elusive because of the phenomenon’s wide scope and variabilityAll proposed definitions suffer from incompletenessPer Bak (1996) has referred to complexity as a Chinese box with surprises in each boxA plethora of definitions of complexity have been proposed focusing on System sizeEntropyAlgorithmic information content (AIC)Logical depth Thermodynamic depthFractal dimensionComputational capacity Statistical complexity Degree of hierarchy
ICSD Conference 2015
11Slide12
A Broad Definition of Complexity (I)
Goldin & Mariathasan (2014) have suggested that there are three levels of complexity; each with its own characteristic featuresThe three levels are: Small-tent Complexity ― Often referred to as the Santa Fe complexity. Its features include:
Locally interacting agents
No central/global controller
Cross-cutting hierarchical organization
Continual adaptation
Perpetual novelty
Little tendency to global equilibrium
ICSD Conference 2015
12Slide13
A Broad Definition of Complexity (II)
Big-tent Complexity — this is broader in scope. It’s features includes: Small - tent complexity as described above Cybernetics Catastrophe theory Chaos theory Meta- Complexity Includes every other definition (the 45 definitions catalogued by Seth Lloyd) and in theory can cover several distinct definitions Goldin & Mariathasan, The Butterfly Effect: How Globalization creates Systemic Risks and What to do about it (2014) Princeton University Press.
ICSD Conference 2015
13Slide14
Characteristics of Complex [Adaptive] Systems (I)
In complexity science, the distinction is often made between complex systems that are intelligent and capable of adapting to their environment and non- adaptive systems. In sustainability science, our particular interest is in complex adaptive systems; which exhibit the following characteristics:Adaptability: Agents interact and change their behaviour in reaction to the behaviour of other agents Emergence: System exhibits patterns of continuous unpredictable novelty. A ‘’process whereby the global system results from the actions and interaction of agents ‘’(Sawyer; 2005) Self-organized criticality/Phase transition: The concept describes a self-organizational mechanism of abrupt transitions in large scale systems that may be triggered by small events (earthquakes, stock market crashes avalanches etc). ‘’The Sandpile metaphor’’
ICSD Conference 2015
14Slide15
Characteristics of Complex [
Adaptive] Systems (II)Chaos: Complex systems exhibit constantly changing hard to predict behaviour[chaotic dynamics].The defining feature of such a system is ‘’sensitive dependence on initial conditions’’. A classic [metaphoric] example of sensitivity to initial conditions is the ‘’ butterfly effect ‘’ ― the action of a butterfly flapping its wings somewhere on the planet resulting in a hurricane elsewhere. Order,(due to an underlying attractor) is often seen in chaotic systems. This chaotic effect has been mathematically proven Non–linearity: Due to positive and negative feedbacks in combination, Complex systems processes are not linear ―causality is not proportional to effect. Effects may be larger than causes. Power laws: Complex systems sometimes exhibit probability distributions that obey a decreasing mathematical function known as a power law. The probability of events such as earthquakes, floods storms follow power laws. ICSD Conference 2015
15Slide16
Complex Systems: Self Organization, Emergence & Adaptive Behaviour
Source
: en.wikipedia.org
ICSD Conference 2015
16Slide17
Emergence in C
omplex Systems
Source: http://www.tcd.ie/futurecities/research/energy/adaptations-complex-systems.php
ICSD Conference 2015
17Slide18
Complexity theory & Science: The Opinion Camps
Chambers (1997) has identified three well delineated academic camps of opinion regarding the question of complexity theory being a paradigm shift or not.The Champions : Who are strongly persuaded by the ideas of complexity theory offering deep paradigmatic insightThe Pragmatists: Who think complexity offers interesting and useful parallels and are ready to embrace its potential for social sciences and human organization The Critics: Who see complexity in the light of an insignificant coincidence ICSD Conference 2015
18Slide19
Complexity Science: Relevance to Sustainability
Fedrof , N (2013) in a clear advocacy for a complexity science approach to sustainability posited that: ‘ The earth and its inhabitants are the most complex system we know but we don’t yet have either a theory of complexity or an experimental approach to manage this system — our global system wisely ’ Seidler & Bawa (2004) summoned the association between complex adaptive systems and coupled human systems remarking that:‘ Most of the challenging questions today are posed in contexts that meet the criteria for so called complex adaptive systems. These criteria include extensive interaction of and aggregation of diverse components, adaptation, non-linearities, emergent properties, amplifier effects ’
ICSD Conference 2015
19Slide20
Sustainability: Examples of Complex adaptive Coupled Human systems
Emergent phenomena – a hallmark characteristic of complex adaptive systems is observed across a spectrum of coupled human-environmental systems. Such as:EconomiesFinancial MarketsCitiesEcosystemsThe BiosphereWeatherHealth Systems ICSD Conference 2015
20Slide21
Applying Complexity in Sustainability
Andries et al (2009) have offered a systematic methodology for applying complexity thinking in sustainability based on four themes as the basis of application.Characterise and Understand Complex Human –Environment Systems (HESs)Develop typologies of classes of HESs’ and match classes with properties Understand Local Adaptive responses and Global consequences Decision makers need to predict global effects better and avoid basing decisions/plans on local situations and short time scales Characterise Trade-Off’s in HESs Understand making environment/development trade-offs is critical to producing better sustainability outcomes Disciplines and Methods RequiredIntegration of theoretical and modelling predictions of complex adaptive systems with empirical evidence from actual human environment systems
ICSD Conference 2015
21Slide22
Complexity Science Tools for Sustainabilty
ScienceThrough advances in computing and simulations, complexity science provides powerful decision support tools for sustainability.Two promising approaches are :ICSD Conference 2015
Agent-based modelling(ABM)
Network Analyses
Well suited for :
Representing social interactions and autonomous behaviours
Studying the environmental impact at different scales
For studying the emergence of adaptive response to changing environment and environmental policies
Social network analyses can help reveal the characteristics of individual actors and the dynamic modification of their behaviours over time
22Slide23
Explaining Agent Based Modelling
Agent-based Simulation is a New Field Grounded in the Biological, Social, and Other SciencesWhat is an agent?A discrete entity with its own goals and behavioursAutonomous, with a capability to adapt and modify its behavioursAssumptionsSome key aspect of behaviours can be described. Mechanisms by which agents interact can be described.Complex social processes and a system can be built “from the bottom up.”ExamplesPeople, groups, organizationsSocial insects, swarms–Robots, systems of collaborating robots Agents are diverse and
heterogeneous ―Macal, C.M & North,M.J (2006) Argonne National Labs
ICSD Conference 2015
23