Deterministic vs. Stochastic effects - PDF document

Deterministic vs. Stochastic effects �100,000 dead immediately from the shock wave Gamma and neutrons gave the radiation doses to the -Cancer and deadliness-Genetic effects expressed in the descendants Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo The bombing of H&N Complicated diseases which depend on among other -Age-Sex-Nutrition-Genes-Intake of cancer developing substances Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo Cancer Risk =Back ground risk R =RDependent ofDependent on sex, sex and age age and increase linearly with the radiation dose Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo Population studies 2) Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo Calculations of radiation dose -Radiation spectra and strength of the bombs-Radiation transport in air and attenuation in buildings-Absorption in organs Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo Dose and risk Database of survivors City, from g.c. Attenua-tion from house house or in body RISK Medical The survivors of H&N most be evaluated as a statistical isolated population •�Control is survivors whom was 2500m from hypocenter during the bomb detonationExcess cancer deaths due to radiation(1950-1990) among the survivors of H&N : 420 Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo Cancer in H & N (comparable population) Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo Risk of cancer –solid tumours Evolutionsmoked per day, can the y-axis be divided by 1-2 Risk=Back ground risk xD s different radiation risk factors –ERR Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo Cancer risk 2) •Other studies (from therapy and similar) show that the data from H&N are possible overestimating the risk: Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo Cancer risk 5) -Errors: in the radiation estimates, cancer -Small verses large doses-Dose distributed over a period verses acute -Age and sex-Joint effects of other factors with radiation Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo Cancer risk –error estimates Lung cancer among miners –radon levels: Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo Other studies 3) is low?) –expect also a Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo Genetic effects in offspring •at which period in the generation of sperm or egg cells the exposition occur.•Male: continues spermatogenesis; 40/70 days (mice and men) to generate sperm cellsFemale: egg cells ready before birth; only matures •If mice is radiated and mutations in sperm cells (spermatogenesis) is to be examined, most at leased wait for 40 days Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo The mega mouse project 2) low dose rate –indicate Factor -DREF Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo The mega mouse project 3) •The studies show a doubling dose about 2 Gy: Department of PhysicsUniversity of Oslo Offspring off H & N 2) (-0.008) (±0.028)CancerMortality Radiation is a weak mutagen