The Fuel Cycle Analysis Toolbox - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

The Fuel Cycle Analysis Toolbox

Brent Dixon

Deputy National Technical Director

Systems Analysis & Integration

Idaho National

Laboratory

3

rd

Technical Workshop on Fuel Cycle Simulation

FIAP Jean Monnet

Paris, France

Introduction –

The Purpose of this presentation is to generate a discussion on:

The different types of analyses and evaluations needed to assess the potential of a fuel cycle

How these analyses are tailored when considering different time scales, system sizes, objectives, and

audiences

The ways these analyses are coupled

The tools and data needed to support these analyses

O

pportunities to improve the process through embedding, linking, or otherwise integrating different types of tools

How to support

optimization over multiple disciplines

Background

We recently updated our tools strategy

We identified 30 analysis codes, databases, linkage tools and communication tools used in our program

The tools were grouped into six areas

In each area, we typically have duplication to support cross-verification of results

Some areas involve multiple steps, with codes specialized to each step

Some of the actual tools embed a simplified version of one tool type into an in-depth version of another tool type

The Tools in the Toolbox

Reactor Core Performance Tools

Fuel Cycle Analysis Tools

Economic and Financial Risk Analysis Tools

Market-based Analysis Tools

Technology and Fuel Cycle Evaluation Tools

Collaboration and Communication Tools

Reactor core performance tools and databases

Understanding the behavior of a fuel cycle begins with understanding the physics in the reactor core

H

ow irradiation

transforms isotopes, through nuclear fission, particle capture, and isotopic

decay

How this

varies during

each

batch cycle as fissile isotopes are depleted

or produced,

and fission and activation products are

produced and decay

The primary steps where tool functionality can be divided are

Processing of nuclear data files

into suitable neutron libraries for use in deterministic and stochastics codes

Lattice and neutron transport calculations to produce multi-group cross sections

Core calculations to determine neutron flux, power production,

fuel depletion,

and discharged fuel composition

Processing of output data as input to the next stage of analysis

Fuel cycle analysis tools

The next analysis step considers the isotopic mass flows of the fuel cycle outside the reactor core

Includes modeling the

sourcing of fresh fuel, the disposition of spent fuel or the recycle of used fuel, and the disposition of wastes

For a

system in equilibrium, a number of fuel cycle performance metrics are

calculated

If the system is evolving, then fuel cycle scenario analyses are performed to understand that evolution, especially when it involves transition from one fuel cycle to

another

Dynamic analyses

may assess a period of decades to centuries to model the primary infrastructure

changes

A key

objective

is the

identification of any factors

that

may constrain the transition and how to alleviate those

constraints

Economic and financial risk analysis tools and datasets

Next,

economic analyses are performed to assess the cost of these systems and to explore the economic aspects of alternative

approaches

Facility capital and operational costs are determined for each type of facility

For dynamic analyses, facility size and utilization rates generate unit costs, which are combined with material flow rates to obtain system costs

Supporting analysis investigate

cost drivers and the cost of prior facility projects to provide a basis for unit

production costs

Datasets include historical costs of facilities

,

market price histories of front-end functions, design

cost

estimates

of proposed facilities, and parametric estimates of advanced concepts

Market-based analysis tools

Market analyses

consider nuclear energy along with other energy sources

M

odels assess

supply and demand to determine the economic

viability and competitiveness

of

the nuclear energy system in

energy markets

Two timeframes are assessed:

The daily market where the objective is to understand system supply/demand

balancing, any

constraints the market may impose on nuclear

generation, and revenue resulting from energy sales

The long-term (multi-decade) evolution of the energy supply mix as demand changes, supply technologies change, and generation units are added, retired at end of life, or retired “early” due to poor

economics

Technology and fuel cycle evaluation tools

All of the information generated by the preceding analyses is used to generate formal assessments as requested by the sponsor

These assessments

typically require

multi-variant decision support tools, as well as the identification and assessment of evaluation

metrics

Based

on the result of these evaluations, specific fuel cycles may be identified for more focused and in-depth

reassessments

T

he

technology readiness of advanced technologies needed for deployment of fuel cycles

may also be assessed

This information can be used directly

for research

planning and can be rolled up to support technology roadmaps as needed.

Collaboration and communication tools

The final tools area

focuses on communication with different types of users

Results of analyses must be communicated to sponsors, managers, and policy makers

Collaboration tools support tool developers and analysis teams

Information catalogs make available archived assessments to technical communities

Web-based tools provide simplified versions of tools available to the general public to enable learning by doing

Discussion –

The Purpose of this presentation was to generate a discussion on:

The different types of analyses and evaluations needed to assess the potential of a fuel cycle

How these analyses are tailored when considering different time scales, system sizes, objectives, and audiences

The ways these analyses are coupled

The tools and data needed to support these analyses

O

pportunities to improve the process through embedding, linking, or otherwise integrating different types of tools

How to support

optimization over multiple disciplines