PPT-Frontiers of Climate Prediction in the Caribbean –

SubSeasonal to seasonal forecasting Dr Cedric J VAN MEERBEECK cmeerbeeckcimhedubb Climatologist Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology CIMH Barbados St Michael Centre for Faith and . Palais des Nations, Geneva, February 9, 2015. Leonard A. Nurse. Chair, Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. Observed Temperature Changes in the Caribbean Reflect Global Trends. Source: Peterson et al, 2002. Slide . 2015. Climate. . Prediction. and . Climate. . Services. http://ic3.cat/wikicfu. Virginie Guemas and the Climate Forecasting Unit . 9 February 2015. Climate. . timescales. and . climate. . prediction. Research Interests/Needs. 1. Outline. Operational Prediction Branch research needs. Operational Monitoring Branch research needs. New experimental products at CPC. Background on CPC. Thanks to CICS/ESSIC/UMD for Inviting us . Chris Ferro (University of Exeter). Tom . Fricker. , . Fredi. Otto, Emma Suckling. 12th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology (28 June 2013, . Jeju. , Korea). Credibility and performance. NorCPM. Noel . Keenlyside. Francois . Counillon. , Ingo . Bethke. , . Yiguo. . Wang, . Mao. -Lin . Shen. , . Madlen. . Kimmritz. , . Marius . Årthun. , Tor . Eldevik. , Stephanie . Gleixner. , . Helene . Chris Ferro (University of Exeter). Tom . Fricker. , . Fredi. Otto, Emma Suckling. Credibility and performance. Many factors may influence credibility judgments, but should do so if and only if they affect our expectations about the performance of the predictions.. Objectives. To better understand variability in eastern upwelling regions and the Gulf of Guinea. To enhance climate modelling and prediction capabilities. Improve understanding of marine ecosystems for better prediction and management. Climate Change and You. 1. There is weather and then there is climate…. Weather. is:. Short . term changes in atmospheric variables such as temperature and rainfall.. Can change rapidly. So…. Weather is what is happening outside right now. Six Things you should know Climate Change and You 1. There is weather and then there is climate… Weather is: Short term changes in atmospheric variables such as temperature and rainfall. Can change rapidly Jin Huang. CTB Director. . Mission . To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services. . *CFS – Climate Forecast . Initiative (CAMI): Potential synergies with GFCS Implementation. Adrian . Trotman. Chief, Applied Meteorology and Climatology. Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology. Caribbean Workshop on Climate Services. Launch of the Caribbean Green Economy Action Learning Group. Nicole Leotaud. Caribbean Natural Resources Institute (CANARI). Caribbean Environment Forum 6. St Kitts, May 2012. FOOD. ECONOMIC. CLIMATE. Freshwater is critical to life throughout the Caribbean. Increasing global carbon emissions are projected to reduce average rainfall in this region by the end of the century, constraining freshwater availability, while extreme rainfall events, which can increase freshwater flooding impacts, are expected to increase in intensity. Saltwater intrusion associated with sea level rise will reduce the quantity and quality of freshwater in coastal aquifers. Increasing variability in rainfall events and increasing temperatures will likely alter the distribution of ecological life zones and exacerbate existing problems in water management, planning, and infrastructure capacity.. Jin Huang. CTB Director. . Mission . To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services. . *CFS – Climate Forecast .