2019 Cattle Market Update Derrell S Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma State University Ronan Montana February 2019 2019 Cattle and Beef Market Issues ID: 764522
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2019 Cattle Market Update Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing SpecialistOklahoma State University
Ronan, Montana February, 2019
2019 Cattle and Beef Market IssuesCattle inventories peakingContinued but slow growth in beef productionContinued strong beef demand is keyDomestic and internationalBiggest threats are externalSlowing economic growth in U.S. and global Trade Issues
2019 Cattle and Beef Market Issuescont.Trade IssuesUSMCAU.S. steel and aluminum tariffsCP-TPP (continues without U.S.) JapanChinaE.U./Brexit??
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Price-Weight Relationship Medium/Large No. 1 Steers, Oklahoma
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMICLivestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Hay Stocks, December 1YOY ChangeOK -3.3 %TX -29.7 %KS -4.4 %AR -19.5 %MO -17.6 % 5-state total -16.0 % U.S. -6.4 %
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Beef Cow Inventory by CycleU.S., January 1
U.S. Cattle InventoryJanuary 1 201720182019* % Change1000 Head1000 Head1000 HeadAll Cattle and Calves93704.6 94399.2 95189.8 +0.8 Beef Cows 31213.2 31723.0 31881.6 +0.5 Dairy Cows 9346.0 9399.6 9375.0 -0.3 Beef Replacements 6368.2 6131.2 5780.0 -5.7 Dairy Replacements 4754.0 4781.3 4760.0 -0.4 Feeder Supply 26712.6 26105.3 26906.7 +3.1 Cattle on Feed 13067.0 14006.4 14272.5 +1.9 2016 2017 2018 Calf Crop 35092.7 35808.2 36414.7 +1.7 *Forecasts by Derrell Peel
Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Beef Replacement Heifers as % of Beef Cows, January 1
Analysis by Derrell Peel Data Source: USDA-NASS Average:Heifer % = 17.9Culling % = 9.53
Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Monthly Placements and Cattle on Feed12 Month Moving Ave.
Cattle SlaughterFederally Inspected, 1000 Head 20162017 % Change 2016 to 20172018 YTD% Change Steers1649516771+1.7 -0.7 Heifers 7698 8611 +11.9 +6.4 Dairy Cows 2886 2988 +3.6 +5.2 Beef Cows 2543 2784 +9.5 +8.7 Bulls 494 550 +11.4 -0.5 Total 30115 31771 +5.3 +2.6 Latest data: December 31, 2018
Cattle SlaughterFederally Inspected, 1000 Head 20172018 % Change 2017 to 20182019 YTD% Change Steers1677116645-0.7 -6.3 Heifers 8611 9163 +6.4 +5.0 Dairy Cows 2988 3143 +5.2 +4.1 Beef Cows 2784 3025 +8.7 -2.0 Bulls 550 547 -0.5 -2.5 Total 31771 32522 +2.6 -1.6 Latest data: January 19, 2018
Steer to Heifer Slaughter Ratio12 month MA September, 2018
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Dressed Weights12 month Moving Average, Federally Inspected
2018/2019 Meat Production and Consumption Production Consum. ChangeConsum.Per CapitaConsum.Change20172018 2017-2018 2019 2018- 2019 2017-2018 2019 2018-2019 Million lbs. Million lbs. % Change Million lbs. % Change % Change Retail Lbs. % Change Beef 26187 26867 +2.6 27298 +1.6 +0.0 57.0 +0.2 Pork 25584 26323 +2.9 26966 +2.4 +1.2 50.8 +0.2 Broilers 41217 42266 +2.5 42540 +0.6 +1.8 91.9 -0.5 Total 99739 102171 +2.4103072+0.9 +1.0 217.8 -0.4 LMIC, February 6, 2019 2018 projected and 2019 forecast
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS January, 2019
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC January, 2019
Data Source: USDA-NASS and USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-FAS, Oct 2018 Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-FAS, Oct 2018
Data Source: USDA-FAS
China: Beef Imports
U.S. Beef Exports 2016(1000 lbs.)% Change 2015 to 20162017 (1000 lbs.)% Change 2016 to 2017% of Total ExportsYTD %Of 2017Japan655426+21.5826204+26.1 28.9 +6.8 Mexico 394952 +8.9 419506 +6.2 14.7 +7.3 Hong Kong 293813 -7.0 335719 +14.3 11.7 -5.9 Canada 311905 -4.8 311905 +1.2 10.8 -1.6 S. Korea 459158 +44.0 472768 +3.0 16.5 +36.6 Total 2555698 +12.7 2861557 +12.0 +11.3 YTD: Jan-Nov
2018 U.S. Beef ExportsShare of Total, January-November
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
U.S. Beef Imports 2016(1000 lbs.)% Change 2015 to 20162017 (1000 lbs.)% Change 2015 to 2016% of Total Imports2018 YTD% of 2017Australia767216-39.0695253 -9.4 +23.2 -1.6 Canada 717798 +14.2 741070 +3.2 +24.8 +6.0 New Zealand 612549 -7.4 557529 -9.1 +18.6 +4.3 Mexico 493446 +25.9 573520 +16.2 +19.2 -12.9 Brazil 152703 +2.1 138430 -9.3 +4.6 +2.6 Total 3014636 -10.6 2994382 -0.7 +0.1 YTD: Jan-Nov
2018 U.S. Beef ImportsShare of total, January-November
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
2019-2020 Cattle Price Forecasts Feeder Steer Price (Southern Plains)Fed Steer 5-600 lb. ($/cwt.) % chg from Last Year 7-800 lb. ($/cwt.) % chg from Last Year 5-mkt avg. ($/cwt) % chg from Last Year 2017 Annual 166.00 0.0 148.17 +2.1 121.52 +0.5 2018 Annual 171.39 +3.2 150.00 +1.2 117.12 -3.6 2019 I 167-171 -6.1 142-145 -3.5 123-124 -1.7 II 170-176 +1.7 143-148 +0.7 118-120 +2.0 III 167-175 +3.3 145-151 -5.1 109-112 -0.3 IV 164-173 +1.7 146-154 -0.5 155-119 +1.5 Annual 167-174 -0.5 144-150 -2.0 116-119 +0.3 2020 Annual 170-179 +2.3 147-154 +2.4 117-1210 +1.3 LMIC, February 6, 2019
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