Stephen Matthews 12 Louis Iverson 2 Anantha Prasad 2 Matthew Peters 2 1 School of Environment and Natural Resources Ohio State University 2 USFS Northern Research Station ID: 1026713
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1. Regional Impacts of Climate Change on Forests and bird communitiesStephen Matthews1,2, Louis Iverson2,Anantha Prasad2, Matthew Peters2 1School of Environment and Natural Resources Ohio State University2USFS Northern Research Station
2. Today's topicClimate is changing and species are respondingConservation and management strategies that ignore these change will likely fail (Lawler et al. 2009)How can we begin to integrate climate change impacts into complicated realm of conservationMust address in stages and build our understandingBuilding broad-scale models is a logical startWorking with managers to translate results to “on the ground realities”
3. Eleven indicators that the climate is changing State of the climate 2009, NOAALand tempSea tempSea levelSnow cover
4. Vertebrates: phenological responses to a changing climateAmphibians Calling 10 -13 days earlier for half of species from ~1912 to 1990 Gibbs and Breisch 2001BirdsEarly arrival Beaumont et al. 2006Hatching earlier Both and Visser 2005, GCB, Fig 4Such shifts can lead to mismatches in timingReviewed in Root et al. 2005 Wood frog = 13 days
5. Wildlife distribution shifts linked to climate changeDistributional shifts Mammals:Southern species increase and northern species decline, southern flying squirrel N 225 km since 1880 (Myers et al. 2009, GCB, Fig 3)Birds: winter range northern boundary shift 1.48 km/yrSorte and Thompson 2007breeding range also show northward trend 2.35 km/yr Hitch and Leberg, 2006
6. Future effects: Highly tied to the level of CO2 emissions ??
7. Rising Temperatures in NE. US (annual average)Higher: 6.5-12.5oFLower:3.5-6.5oFLarge difference between High and Low emissions!
8. Expected growing season changes(for northern Wisconsin)Growing season temperature higher and not much change in precipitation = more physiological stress on biotaPCM Lo +2 CHAD Hi +8 C (14F)
9. Challenges of modeling species impacts of climate changeFuture climate uncertaintyGCM variationsHuman-produced levels of CO2 uncertain Species likely to respond individuallyBiology not that well-known for many speciesModel validation far into future not possible Bottom line: we need to incorporate different approaches to quantify and “whittle away” at uncertainties to develop ecologically informed projections – modeling is a key tool to do this
10. Tree abundance Bird abundance Climate Environment Forest density Species traitsDataDISTRIB modelSpecies habitat predictionTree &Bird AtlasesModFacs Biological factors Disturbance factors Model uncertaintySHIFT modelSpecies colonization probabilitiesPotential migrationby 2100DISTRIB +SHIFTScoring systemfor tree speciesDECISIONSUPPORTFRAMEWORK Management guidelines Implications & toolsCurrent and future species managementMulti-stage modelling schemeOur Approach: Climate Change Impacts on SpeciesIverson et al. 2011, Ecosystems
11. The role of climate in shaping vertebrate distributions Root 1988Currie 1991
12. But there is also a strong habitat component for most species Therefore we use climate and individual tree species to build our 147 bird models
13. Important to note when interpreting these models!The models are predicting potential suitable habitat by year 2100 – not where the species will be. The DISTRIB model does not account for biotic interactions, other human or natural disturbances.
14. Climate ChangeTree & Bird Atlashttp://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas
15. Prothonotary WarblerExamples of species with projected habitat increases Brown-headed Nuthatchhttp://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas Emissions scenariosLow High ?
16. Black-throated Blue Warbler Black-capped Chickadee Emissions scenariosLow High ? Examples of species with projected habitat decreases http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas
17. Incidence change (Ratio)General trends of all 147 species across the eastern USKm (sd)PCMlo109 (64.3)Avglo142 (88.9)Avghi210 (139.5)Hadhi212 (149.9)Mean Center Potential MovementMatthews et al. 2011 Ecography
18. The Chicago ecosystem assessment provides one example of these data being summarized regionally to focus the results (Hellmann et al. 2010, J. Great Lakes Res.)Habitat Changes:Under high emissions 130 species changes >=10%With 76 decliningWith 54 increasingUnder low emission116 species changes >= 10%64 declining52 increasingSummer tanager Bulluts130 change 10%X increase Y decreae
19. Are these data being used?? The Goal: Identify strategies and approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigationBridge the gap between scales of prediction management activities on National Forests interactions with the greater community Swanston et al. 2011
20. Sugar Maple?LowHigh
21. Modifying factors Many other factors (biological and disturbance) come in to play to determine more likely outcomesWe rate biological (n=9) and disturbance (n=12) characteristics for positive or negative impactsGoal was to evaluate more realistic outcomes at regional and local levelsThe results from the multi-criteria framework can be applied to the results present today
22. Red Maple: Projected habitat declines Characteristics suggest high adaptability Black Oak:Projected habitat increasesPositive ModFac profile suggests it may be able to persist in harsh areasBalsam Fir: Projected habitat declinesNegative ModFacAll metrics suggest it will likely face severe limits in eastern USIncreasing Adaptability to Climate Change?Matthews et al. 2011, For. Ecol. Manag.
23. Potential Changes for Tree Species The “Model Forest” ProjectEvaluated 73 species from the regionPut in to 8 classes of impactsClass 1: extirpated (1 species)Class 2: large decrease (12 species) Class 3: small decrease (6 species)Class 4: no change (6 species)Class 5: small increase (4 species)Class 6: large increase (17 species)Class 7: new entry-high and low emissions (11 species)Class 8: new entry-high emissions (16 species)Score each species for modification factors to help managers interpret potential impacts and suggest adaptation strategies
24. (Losers)Class 1Class 2Class 3(Stayers)Class 4(Gainers)Class 5Class 6Class 7Class 8(New Migrants)
25. Large Decreasers (Cl. 2)BetterWorse
26. species habitat totalPCMlo(mild)Hadhi(harsh)balsam fir4.8-3.6-4.4aspen16.8-8.2-14.3paper birch6-3.3-5.4jack pine3.1-0.8-1.5white and red pine4.70-2.9all oak10.56.811.3northern hardwood17-3.1-10Overall habitat change for the 7 major species groups in N Wisconsin by GCM/emission% Change in HabitatCurrentHabitat
27. Ecosystem VulnerabilitiesThe potential changes in species composition may thus lead to a number of ecosystem vulnerabilities:Lowland hardwood forests (presently dominated by black ash) will be disrupted from drying and especially the emerald ash borer, and probably converted to red maple Lowland conifer forests (e.g., balsam fir), may be stressed more by dry late summers, disrupting that entire ecosystem Several ecosystems with species that have been recently declining (e.g., hemlock, paper birch, white spruce) will likely continue to decline Vegetation changes will have significant effects on wildlifeSwanston et al. 2011
28. A few final thoughts…Modeling potential responses of 134 tree and 147 birds species using multi-stage methodologyContinues to provide new knowledge of species distributions and potential for changeCarry the research results forward to ensure that it is management relevant and assumptions are communicatedWhat species may be players: lists of species to evaluate?How might species get there?Do the species life history characteristics compliment or contradict the habitat changes?Must enter into an adaptive management framework moving forward: this includes monitoring to provide feedback loops.We are confronted with the challenge of understanding the response of ecological systems to changing landscapes. More than ever we need to consider how local management decisions fit into the distributions of target species.
29. Thank you!Web site for most data presented today:Climate change atlases Species-environment data for 147 birds and 134 treesPdfs of related paperswww.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlasAcknowledgementsThanks to USDA FS Northern Global Change Program for supportUS Forest Service Northern Research Station Ohio State University