Jessie Creamean Andrew Martin Thursday January 22 2015 Current Conditions I High AOD plumes Jan21a and Jan21b are in dry slot of mature in N Central Pac These likely correspond to plumes Jan20a and Jan20b respectively ID: 760363
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Slide1
CalWater 2 Chemical / Aerosol Forecast
Jessie Creamean
Andrew Martin
Thursday
,
January 22, 2015
Slide2Current Conditions I
High AOD plumes (Jan21a and Jan21b) are in dry slot of mature in N. Central Pac. These likely correspond to plumes Jan20a and Jan20b, respectively.
A Third plume, Jan21c is located in the Northwest Pacific.
Tibet
Beijing
N Pac
Chl
-α 01-18
AI and Fires
Jan20a
Jan20b
Jan21c
Jan20b
Slide3Current Conditions II
CALIPSO Track over eastern edge of Jan20b:
Detects possible dust mixed in with high clouds in “comma head”
In dry slot, detects clean marine aerosols
Slide4Current Conditions III
CALIPSO Track over plume Jan21c:
High number of dust and aged dust retrievals from 4 to 9 km
Dust is co-located with mixed-phase clouds.
Slide5Current Conditions IV
GEOS5
Analyses identify the Jan20a and Jan20b plumes. Jan21c exists within a largely isotropic dust plume and is co-located with other pollutant species.Persistent near-shore feature is not observed.
Observed
Unobserved?
Slide6Current Conditions V: Local Aerosols
Fine PM remains low throughout N. CASlight increase in CV AOD on 01/21 compared to 01/22Forecasts still show offshore dust plume
Observed
Today Forecast
1000 PST
Yesterday PM
Slide7Current Conditions VI: Local Clouds
Some
stratocu off CA coast and CV fogMid and High Clouds are expected to move eastward across the Lohontan, Mojave and South
Slide8Current Conditions VI: For Flights
70
0
hPa
~1.5 km
500 hPa ~5.5 km
300 hPa ~9 km
Dust
BC
SO4
Clouds
Clouds
Slide9An Analysis of the Offshore Plume Forecast
MODIS has been consistently missing the “near-shore plume”, can we validate any other way?
Observed
Unobserved?
500
hPa
BC
500
hPa
SO4
500
hPa
Dust
Slide10CALIPSO in Near-Shore Plume
CALIPSO Track over eastern edge of Jan20b:
Detects possible dust mixed in with high clouds in “comma head”
In dry slot, detects clean marine aerosols
Slide11Cloud Forecast for Flights:
Cloud tops 10 am PT
Cloud tops 2 pm PT
Slide125-Day Outlook Part 1: N-Pac
As in previous day’s forecast: The second wave of a NE Pac aerosol plume is moving over N CA today.This is followed by a lull, with Southern desert aerosols wrapping around the ridge and possibly coming back onshore.LRT sources do not reach CA for the next 5 days.
Slide135 plus-Day Outlook: N-Pac and Sources
Next chance for LRT aerosols to reach our area appears to be in 8 days (Friday Jan 30)
Slide145-Day Outlook Part 3: Central Valley
Northern CV
Southern CV
Slide155-Day Outlook Part 5: Bodega Bay
Slide165-Day Outlook Part 6: Off Coast