Jessie Creamean Andrew Martin Sunday January 25 2015 Executive Summary Today for G1 flight over BBY low level lt 3 km pollutants and clear skies In next 5 days high AOD plumes currently over Pacific disperse andor hit Canada missing CA ID: 757233
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Slide1
CalWater 2 Chemical / Aerosol Forecast
Jessie Creamean
Andrew Martin
Sunday,
January
25,
2015Slide2
Executive SummaryToday for
G-1 flight over
BBY, low level (< 3 km) pollutants and clear skies
In next 5 days, high AOD plumes currently over Pacific disperse and/or hit Canada, missing CA
More influence from regional sources in next 5 days throughout CA and even off the coast, with potential for LRT pollutants in next 10 days
In a lull for LRT dustSlide3
Outline
Current
Conditions
Observed via satellite and composite imagery over Pacific Basin
Modeled current conditions over Pacific Basin
Local
current conditions
Particulate matter
Clouds
Current
conditions at
BBY
Outlook for G-1 flight today
5-day outlook
5 plus-day outlook
5-Day
outlook for
local aerosols (aerograms)Slide4
Current Conditions
I: Observed
Cannot distinguish Jan21c or Jan24a, can see Jan24b (high AOD) and a new one, Jan25a
Jan25a corresponds to high CO and AI, possibly biomass burning
Band of elevated CO hitting BC
High chlorophyll of CA coast
MODIS
AOD and Aura AI
(Jan
23, 24)
Jan24b
Jan25a
AIRS CO (Jan 24)
AIRS CO (Jan 23)
?
MODIS
Chl
-a (Jan 23)Slide5
Current Conditions II: Observed
Jan24b
Jan25a
?
NASA
SPoRT
shows higher AOD plumes over north Pacific
Elevated AOD over CV, particularly around Madera
Currently no CALIPSO data from yesterday to validate aerosol type in high AOD plumesSlide6
Current Conditions
III: Modeled
Dust
CO from African BB
BC
Jan25a
Jan24b
?
SO4
Smaller, low level (3 km) dust plumes far off CA coast (observed with MODIS, possibly in low level or below high altitude clouds?)
African CO covers much of N CA
Low BC and SO4 off CA, high BC and SO4 in East AsiaSlide7
Current Conditions IV
:
Local Aerosols
For the most part, fine PM within healthy levels
Some elevated fine PM
at other CV sites, but not consistent
Agrees with NASA
SPoRT
composite of high AOD near Madera areaSlide8
Current Conditions V: Local Clouds
Same as yesterday…
Again
widespread stratocumulus
near much of CA
coast
CV fog
Clear at mid and upper
levelsSlide9
Current Conditions VI: BBY
Northerly winds
dominated yesterday
Fairly still today at the surface, upper level northerly, easterly, and northeasterly winds
Projected shift to easterly than southerly winds at surface tomorrow (PGF?)
Jan 24
Jan 26
Jan 25Slide10
Outlook for G-1 Flight Today
OC
B
C
SO4
0.2
ug
/m
3
up to ~2.5 km
0.05
ug
/m
3
up to ~2.5 km
0.2
ug
/m
3
up to ~2.5 km
Forecast for 21Z (13:00 PST)
Stratocu
clouds clear from coast
Clear day at BBY
Winds prior to flight =
NEly
, during switch to
SWly
Observe anthropogenic pollutants, possibly a little dust up to 2.5-3 kmSlide11
5-Day Outlook Part 1: N-Pac
Plume Jan24b
disperses and hits Canadian coast (we will not see this)
Will still see regional influences from Baja dust, BC, SO4 late Mon into Fri (no trans-Pac dust)
Overall, appears we will have more regional influences for next 5 days
AOD
Today AM
AOD
Wed
AM
AOD
Fri AM
Dust
Mon PM
BC
Mon PM
SO4 Mon PMSlide12
5 plus-Day Outlook: N-Pac and Sources
We will continue to see regional dust into early Sat Jan 31
Possible small plume of LRT dust early Mon Feb 2
Other than that, LRT dust stays to the north of us for the next 10 days.
Could see some LRT BC late Sun Feb 1 into Mon Feb 2
Other than that, fairly little influence from LRT BC and SO4
BC and CO4 likely from Asian fossil fuels (African BB stays south)Slide13
5-Day Outlook: Central Valley
North CV
South CV
Both N and S CV locations fairly clean in next few days, then during shift in winds from predominantly easterly to southwesterly induces higher levels of pollutants and dust (likely the Baja influence) late Mon/early Tue.
G1/ER2 flight
G1/ER2 flightSlide14
5-Day Outlook: Bodega Bay
Similar behavior to both CV locations, shift to southerly winds early Tue (bring regional pollutants and dust to site)
Potential for cloud coverage at all levels and some precipitation Tue into Wed
G1 flightSlide15
5-Day Outlook: Sierra Nevada
Regional pollutants and some dust observed in Sierra Nevada early Tue into Wed
W
ith the chance for a mix of rain and snow prior to pollutant influxSlide16
5-Day Outlook: Ron Braun
Much cleaner near RVB, but still seeing some influence from the regional Baja plume
onTue