European Light Commercial Vehicle Production Outlook – SM - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

European Light Commercial Vehicle Production Outlook – SMMT Open Forum

Ian Henry, AutoAnalysis

March 30, 2011Slide2

5 categories of Light Commercial Vehicles made in Europe

Microvans

Small vansMedium vans Large vans Pick-up trucksSlide3

Market dominated by joint product development & manufacturing arrangements

Traditionally c2-2.5mn LCVs made in Europe pa, incl. commercial versions of cars

Market supplied almost entirely with local production –

limited importsAlliances are a key feature of market, with some VMs having >1 alliance:Fiat with PSA, and with GM

PSA with Fiat, and Mitsubishi Renault with GM, Nissan and Mercedes

Mercedes with VW and Renault …

Over 1/3 European LCVs supplied through alliances5 main segments

:Microvans, eg Peugeot Bipper

Small vans, eg Ford Transit ConnectMedium vans, eg Vauxhall Vivaro

Large vans, eg Fiat Ducato

Pick-up trucks, eg Nissan Navarra VW adding pick-up production to European offering – the first European VM to make a purpose-built pick-up

Chinese, through Chery and Great Wall, will add LCV production in EuropeSlide4

Significant dip in 2009 production – recovery unlikely to exceed 2007 peak; some PSA/Renault/Fiat production shifting to South America and Russia …Slide5

Daimler

Currently has two vans, Viano/Vito medium van made in Spain, and Sprinter large van made in Germany

Sprinter also supplied to Volkswagen as Crafter and has been supplied to Dodge and Freightliner in low volume for US market

Will source Mercedes version of Kangoo from Renault to give it a small van – previous offering in small vans (Vaneo based on A-class) was not a success

Recently announced a production JV with GAZ in Russia, to make Sprinter for local market:Timing to be confirmedInitial volume 25,000 paThis will be Mercedes’ initial route into Russia; car production in Russia not currently scheduledSlide6

Fiat

Widest range of LCVs, mostly made in JVs with PSA:

Microvans

: Fiat Fiorino, made by Tofas in Turkey, JV with PSA

Small van: Fiat Doblo, made by Tofas; will build version for Opel/Vauxhall under contractMedium van: Fiat Scudo, made by Sevel Nord, French-based arm of PSA JVLarge van: Fiat Ducato, made by Sevel Sud, Italian-based arm of PSA JVIveco Daily: heavy duty large van, made in Italy and Spain

Production in Russia highly likely in new Fiat factory, to replace low volume kit production at local assemblersSlide7

Ford

Only major European VM without an alliance in LCVs

Transit van is, arguably, the most iconic van in Europe, certainly in UK:

Mostly now made in Kocaeli, Turkey; major investment for new model – crosses medium and large van sub-segments

Limited production of chassis-cabs in UKTransit Connect small van currently make in Turkey:Production to shift to Romania Transit Connect is one of three candidates to be next New York City taxi:Could boost new model production in Craiova, or lead to US productionSlide8

GM

Heavily reliant on Renault for most of its presence in LCVs:

Medium

Vivaro van made in joint development and manufacturing programme with Renault; production of new model secured for Luton, saving the factory, starting in 2013; but new van programme will only see Vauxhall/Opel models made in Luton – no Renaults or Nissans

Large Movano van sourced on OEM basis from Renault (rebadged version of Master)Still makes own small van: Combo, based on Corsa:However, for new model, GM is switching Combo van replacement to a modified version of Fiat Doblo from the Tofas plant in Turkey Slide9

PSA

Mix of own vehicle programme and JVs with Fiat

Microvan

: Citroen Nemo/Peugeot Bipper, made by Tofas in Turkey, JV with Fiat

Small van: Citroen Berlingo/Peugeot Partner, self-developed programme, made in Spain; will add EV version with Mitsubishi electric powertrain; CKD arrangement in Turkey, full production also in Brazil – both leading to fall in Spanish productionMedium van: Citroen Jumpy/Peugeot Expert, made by Sevel Nord, French-based arm of Fiat JVLarge van: Citroen Jumper/Peugeot Boxer, made by Sevel Sud, Italian-based arm of Fiat JVSlide10

Renault-Nissan-Dacia

Renault

:

Small van

: Kangoo, formerly supplied to Nissan as Kubistar, also to be supplied to Mercedes (name unknown)Medium van: Trafic, currently made in Spain and UK, switching to France for new model; joint development programme with GMLarge van: Master, also supplied to GM and Nissan on OEM basisNissan

now going down a partially independent path in LCVs:Formerly sourced all European vans from Renault

But Nissan Spain now making own small-medium van (NV200) and will also make new pick-up truck

Dacia: new factory in Morocco will add small van from 2013 … details awaitedSlide11

Small van

: Caddy, made in Poland, based on old Golf platform

Medium van

: Transporter, mostly made in Germany, with chassis cab versions made in Poland; also made in minibus and coach versions in Germany

Large van: Crafter sourced from Mercedes on OEM basisPick-up truck

: developed Amarok for South American market; will add European production in 2012, the first European VM to make a purposed-designed pick-up in EuropeSkoda also makes low volume Praktik van, based on Fabia, mostly for domestic market

VW groupSlide12

In summary … European LCV production ...

Is characterised by

joint production arrangements

, some full JVs (Fiat-PSA), some pure OEM supply (Mercedes for VW, Renault for Mercedes)

Will see more alliances like these in the years aheadIs dominated by European brands – Nissan apart, the Japanese have largely stayed away from this market; and probably will stay away, because of entrenched nature of European suppliers and better opportunities elsewhereChinese will appear at the margins

, in small vans and cheap pick-up trucks, while Hyundai will aim for a slice of Turkish/Near East market with a Turkish production JV