PPT-Improvements in Statistical Tropical Cyclone Forecast Model

A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria 1 Andrea Schumacher 2 John A Knaff 1 and Renate Brummer 2 1 NOAANESDIS Fort Collins CO 2 CIRA Colorado State University Fort Collins CO. Satellite cl oud imageries are used along with other meteorological features to estimate t he intensities and the wind speed associated with these intense systems The satellite cl oud configurations expressed by T numbers have unique relati onship w Tropical Cyclone Models. Track and Intensity. Michael J. Brennan. National Hurricane Center. NOAA Southeast. and Caribbean Regional Team Webinar. 10 May. 2016. Tropical Weather Outlook. Tropical Cyclone Track. vs. . Remote effect. Sourav Taraphdar. 1. Collaborators. :. 1. . Fuqing. Zhang, . Yonghui. . Weng. , Michael (Yue) Ying. 2. . Shuguang. Wang. 3. Juan . Fang. 1. Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, . Ethan Wright: UNC Asheville. Research Advisor: . Dr. Christopher . Hennon. 04/22/2015. Peak Intensity: 190 mph. Lowest Pressure: 870 . mb. Small eye size of 8 nm . Super Typhoon Tip (1979). Super Typhoon Winnie (1997). David Roth. NOAA . Weather . Prediction Center. College Park, . MD. Last Updated: . April 30, 2015. Collaborative track . f. orecast – medium . r. ange. Rainfall Statements composed by WPC. WPC assumes responsibility for inland depressions outside of Florida. Intensity Forecasting. Mark . DeMaria. NOAA/NESDIS/. StAR. , Fort Collins, CO. CoRP. Science Symposium. Fort Collins, CO. August 2010. Outline. Overview of tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. Charlie Neumann (1987) methodology. 1 Hurricane Neki ( CP032009) 18 - 27 October 2009 Derek Wroe Central Pacific Hurricane Center 5 February 2010 Neki was the final tropical cyclone and only category three hurricane within the Centr -1- Hurricane Nora 1-9 October 2003 Lixion. A. Avila National Hurricane Center 4 November 2003 a.Synoptic History Nora developed from a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on 13 Septe 2 surface temperatures steadily took its toll on Jova and the cyclone rapidly weakened to a tropical storm late on 22 September about 350 n mi east-northeast of Hilo. Jova became a tropical depressio 11A1 FOR HURRICANES KATRINA RITA AND WILMA James S Goerss Naval Research Laboratory Monterey California1 INTRODUCTION Consensus tropical cyclone TC track forecast aids formed using TC track fore Kerry Emanuel. Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Storm Max Power Dissipation. (Smoothed with a 1-3-4-3-1 filter). Past, Present, and Future Tropical Cyclone Activity Jacob Carstens 1 , Christopher Uejio 2 , and Allison Wing 1 1 Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallaha Kerry . Emanuel and Sai Ravela. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Risk Assessment Methods. Methods based on hurricane history. Numerical Simulations. Downscaling Approaches. Issues with Historically Based Risk Assessment. A Year 2 Joint Hurricane . Testbed. Project Update. . Mark DeMaria. 1. , Andrea Schumacher. 2. , . John A. Knaff. 1. and Renate Brummer. 2. 1. NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO. 2. CIRA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO.