Predictive Services Spring and Summer 2013 Significant Fire Potential Outlook Monday May 6 th 2013 May 1 st Climate summary Temperature observed since January 1st 2013 Temperature departure from average degrees F ID: 357792
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Slide1
Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center
Predictive ServicesSpring and Summer 2013Significant Fire Potential OutlookMonday May 6th 2013Slide2
May 1
st Climate summary Temperature observed since January 1st 2013 Temperature departure from average (degrees F) Slide3
Climate summary
Precipitation observed since January 1st 2013 Accumulated precipitation percentage of normal VERY DRY!Slide4
56%
28%42%31%63%47%39%40%23%40%40%40%
37%
50%86%56%
32%
92%
112%
74%
69%
67%
48%
68%
40%
66%
Precipitation since Jan 1
st
2013:
Percentage of normal
Unusually dry most areas since the first of the yearSlide5
Jan thru April 2013Slide6Slide7
Snowpack diminishing rapidly during the first 10 days of May 2013
Snow percentage of normalSlide8
Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
May 2013Temperatures Dry trend likely to continue overthe Pacific Northwest
Precipitation
Probably unusually warm over much of the west USSlide9
Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
June, July, and August 2013Probably unusually warm over much of the western US but unsure over OR/WATemperatures Likely continued
drier than usual over he Pacific Northwest
Precipitation Slide10
NWCC Predictive Services outlook for:
May 2013Fire season typically does not begin as early as May. However, the dry trend so far in 2013 has resulted in unusually dry fuels and some potential for wildfires seems likely in particularly dry spots in southern Oregon in May. Slide11
NWCC Predictive Services outlook for:
June 2013If dry trends continue into June, fire season will begin weeks earlier than usual and the areas with higher potential for large and costly fires expands across much of Oregon and southern Washington. Slide12
NWCC Predictive Services outlook for:
July and August 2013Typical summer heat and dryness coupled with a dry spring means much of the geographic area experience greater than usual risk of large, costly wildfires in July and August. Concentrated lightning outbreaks are the key.