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Tropical Cyclone Interactions Within Gyre Tropical Cyclone Interactions Within Gyre

Tropical Cyclone Interactions Within Gyre - PowerPoint Presentation

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Tropical Cyclone Interactions Within Gyre - PPT Presentation

Circulations in the Atlantic Basin Philippe P Papin Ryan D Torn Lance F Bosart Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany State University of New York Funding provided by NSF grant ATM0849491 ID: 239076

stan cag vorticity flow cag stan flow vorticity winds rgyre inversion wind track oct environmental field steering layer 2005 motion 1200 rstan

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Slide1

Tropical Cyclone Interactions Within Gyre Circulations in the Atlantic Basin

Philippe P. Papin, Ryan D. Torn, Lance F. Bosart

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental SciencesUniversity at Albany, State University of New York

Funding provided by NSF grant ATM-0849491

Research Roundtable 2-17-2015Slide2

Motivation

Gyre circulations are rarely studied in the Atlantic basin

Sometimes associated with Tropical Cyclones (TCs)Frequently result in significant societal impact (flooding)Track uncertainty resulting from gyre – tropical cyclone (TC) interactionsTC Stan (2005)

5-day total precipitation and average 850-hPa windsSlide3

CAG Climatology

42 Cases over a 31 year period (1980-2010)Case of CAG that occurred in October 2005 (large blue dot)

CAG 1: Oct 3 – Oct 6Slide4

CAG Climatology

42 Cases over a 31 year period (1980-2010)Case of CAG that occurred in October 2005 (large blue dot)

CAG 1: Oct 3 – Oct 6Slide5

Synoptic EvolutionSlide6

Quantifying Role of CAG of TC Stan MotionSlide7

Piecewise Vorticity Inversion

Want to quantify what impact the CAG wind field has on the track of TC Stan

Invert the vorticity field only over the CAGRemove TC Stan vortex to obtain steering flowAlso look at steering flow without CAG circulationSteering layer flow 925 – 500-hPa layer meanSlide8

Invert Vorticity over 7

o

Circle

Invert

the vorticity field only over the CAGRemove TC Stan vortex to obtain steering flowAlso look at steering flow without CAG circulationSteering layer flow 925 – 500-hPa layer meanPiecewise Vorticity Inversion

Want to quantify what impact the CAG wind field has on the track of TC StanSlide9

Want to quantify impact of the CAG wind field on the track of TC Stan

Remove Vorticity over TC Stan (2.5

o

)

Invert

the vorticity field only over the

CAG

Remove

TC Stan vortex to obtain steering

flow

Also look at steering flow without CAG circulation

Steering layer

f

low 925 – 500-hPa layer mean

Piecewise Vorticity InversionSlide10

Want to quantify impact of the CAG wind field on the track of TC Stan

Remove CAG and TC to see Environmental Flow

Invert the vorticity field only over the CAGRemove TC Stan vortex to obtain steering flowAlso look at steering flow without CAG circulationSteering layer flow 925 – 500-hPa layer mean

Piecewise Vorticity InversionSlide11

Want to quantify impact of the CAG wind field on the track of TC Stan

Invert the vorticity field only over the

CAGRemove TC Stan vortex to obtain steering flowAlso look at steering flow without CAG circulationSteering layer flow 925 – 500-hPa layer mean

Remove CAG and TC to see Environmental Flow

Piecewise Vorticity InversionSlide12

Vorticity Inversion

Actual TC motion: 270

o at 9 kt1200 UTC 3 Oct 2005Winds associated with CAG (rgyre ≤ 7o)Winds associated with CAG (without TC Stan) (rgyre ≤ 7o) and (rstan ≥ 2.5o)

Wind associated with the environmental flow (removal of CAG) (renv ≥ 7o)Slide13

Vorticity Inversion

Actual TC motion: 270

o at 9 kt1200 UTC 3 Oct 2005Winds associated with CAG (rgyre ≤ 7o)Winds associated with CAG (without TC Stan) (rgyre ≤ 7o) and (rstan ≥ 2.5o)Wind associated with the environmental flow (removal of CAG) (r

env ≥ 7o)Slide14

Vorticity Inversion

Actual TC motion: 270

o at 9 kt1200 UTC 3 Oct 2005Winds associated with CAG (rgyre ≤ 7o)Winds associated with CAG (without TC Stan) (rgyre ≤ 7o) and (rstan ≥ 2.5o)

Wind associated with the environmental flow (removal of CAG) (renv ≥ 7o)Slide15

Vorticity Inversion

1200 UTC

4 Oct 2005Winds associated with CAG (rgyre ≤ 7o)Winds associated with CAG (without TC Stan) (rgyre ≤ 7o) and (rstan ≥ 2.5o)Wind associated with the environmental flow (removal of CAG) (renv

≥ 7o)Actual TC motion: 235o at 10 ktSlide16

Vorticity Inversion

1200 UTC

4 Oct 2005Winds associated with CAG (rgyre ≤ 7o)Winds associated with CAG (without TC Stan) (rgyre ≤ 7o) and (rstan ≥ 2.5o)Wind associated with the environmental flow (removal of CAG) (renv ≥ 7o

)Actual TC motion: 235o at 10 ktSlide17

Vorticity Inversion

1200 UTC

4 Oct 2005Winds associated with CAG (rgyre ≤ 7o)Winds associated with CAG (without TC Stan) (rgyre ≤ 7o) and (rstan ≥ 2.5o)Wind associated with the environmental flow (removal of CAG) (renv ≥ 7

o)Actual TC motion: 235o at 10 ktSlide18

Conclusions

Investigated a TC that appeared to interact with a CAG

Lead to poor track verification by the NHCTC Stan likely moved cyclonically around CAG via barotropic binary interactionPiecewise inversion of vorticity strongly suggests TC motion driven by CAG circulationFlow attributed to CAG matched track of TC StanEnvironmental flow did not match track of TC StanGFS track error likely due to initial position error and failure to develop CAGSlide19

QUESTIONS?