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Why Is DDoS Hard to Solve? Why Is DDoS Hard to Solve?

Why Is DDoS Hard to Solve? - PowerPoint Presentation

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Why Is DDoS Hard to Solve? - PPT Presentation

A simple form of attack Designed to prey on the Internets strengths Easy availability of attack machines Attack can look like normal traffic Lack of Internet enforcement tools Hard to get cooperation from others ID: 251198

attack worm machines traffic worm attack traffic machines internet infected work spread packets attacks attacker hard server code core

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Slide1

Why Is DDoS Hard to Solve?

A simple form of attack

Designed to prey on the Internet’s strengths

Easy availability of attack machines

Attack can look like normal traffic

Lack of Internet enforcement tools

Hard to get cooperation from others

Effective solutions hard to deploySlide2

1. Simplicity Of Attack

Basically, just send someone a lot of traffic

More complicated versions can add refinements, but that’s the crux of it

No need to find new vulnerabilities

No need to worry about timing, tracing, etc.

Toolkits are readily available to allow the novice to perform

DDoS

Even distributed parts are very simpleSlide3

2.

Preys

On Internet’s Strengths

The Internet was designed to deliver lots of traffic

From lots of places, to lots of places

DDoS

attackers want to deliver lots of traffic from lots of places to one place

Any individual packet can look proper to the Internet

Without sophisticated analysis, even the entire flow can appear properSlide4

Internet Resource

Utilization

Internet was not designed to monitor resource utilization

Most of it follows first come, first served model

Many network services work the same way

And many key underlying mechanisms do, too

Thus, if a villain can get to the important resources first, he can often deny them to good usersSlide5

3.

Availability

Of Attack Machines

DDoS

is feasible because attackers can enlist many machines

Attackers can enlist many machines because many machines are readily vulnerable

Not hard to find 1,000

crackable

machines on the Internet

Particularly if you don’t care which 1,000

Botnets numbering hundreds of thousands of hosts have been discoveredSlide6

Can’t We Fix These Vulnerabilities?

DDoS

attacks don’t really harm the attacking machines

Many people don’t protect their machines even when the attacks can harm them

Why will they start protecting their machines just to help others?

Altruism has not yet proven to be a compelling argument for for network securitySlide7

4.

Attacks Resemble Normal

Traffic

A

DDoS

attack can consist of vast number of requests for a web server’s home page

No need for attacker to use particular packets or packet contents

So neat filtering/signature tools may not help

Attacker can be arbitrarily sophisticated at mirroring legitimate traffic

In principle

Not often done because dumb attacks work so wellSlide8

5. Lack Of

Enforcement

Tools

DDoS

attackers have never been caught by tracing or observing attack

Only by old-fashioned detective work

Really, only when they’re dumb enough to boast about their success

The Internet offers no help in tracing a single attack stream, much less multiple ones

Even if you trace them, a clever attacker leaves no clues of his identity on those machinesSlide9

What Is the Internet Lacking?

No validation of IP source address

No enforcement of amount of resources used

No method of tracking attack flows

Or those controlling attack flows

No method of assigning responsibility for bad packets or packet streams

No mechanism or tools for determining who corrupted a machineSlide10

6. Poor Cooperation In the Internet

It’s hard to get anyone to help you stop or trace or prevent an attack

Even your ISP might not be too cooperative

Anyone upstream of your ISP is less likely to be cooperative

ISPs more likely to cooperate with each other, though

Even if cooperation occurs, it occurs at human timescales

The attack might be over by the time you figure out who to callSlide11

7. Effective Solutions Hard To Deploy

The easiest place to deploy defensive systems is near your own machine

Defenses there might not work well (firewall example)

There are effective solutions under research

But they require deployment near attackers or in the Internet core

Or, worse, in many places

A working solution is useless without deployment

Hard to get anything deployed if deploying site

gets no direct advantageSlide12

Resource Limitations

Don’t allow an individual attack machine to use many of a target’s resources

Requires:

Authentication, or

Making the sender do special work (puzzles)

Authentication schemes are often expensive for the receiver

Existing legitimate senders largely not set up to handle doing special work

Can still be overcome with a large enough army of zombiesSlide13

Hiding From the Attacker

Make it hard for anyone but legitimate clients to deliver messages at all

E.g., keep your machine’s identity obscure

A possible solution for some potential targets

But not for others, like public web servers

To the extent that approach relies on secrecy, it’s fragile

Some such approaches don’t require secrecySlide14

Resource Multiplication

As attacker demands more resources, supply them

Essentially, never allow resources to be depleted

Not always possible, usually expensive

Not clear that defender can keep ahead of the attacker

But still a good step against limited attacks

More advanced versions might use

Akamai-like techniquesSlide15

Trace and Stop Attacks

Figure out which machines attacks come from

Go

to those machines (or near them) and stop the attacks

Tracing is trivial if IP source addresses aren’t spoofed

Tracing may be possible even if they are spoofed

May not have ability/authority to do anything once you’ve found the attack machines

Not too helpful if attacker has a vast supply of machines Slide16

Filtering Attack Streams

The basis for most defensive approaches

Addresses the core of the problem by limiting the amount of work presented to target

Key question is:

What do you drop?

Good solutions drop all (and only) attack traffic

Less good solutions drop some (or all) of everythingSlide17

Filtering Vs. Rate Limiting

Filtering drops packets with particular characteristics

If you get the characteristics right, you do little collateral damage

At odds with the desire to drop all attack traffic

Rate limiting drops packets on basis of amount of traffic

Can thus assure target is not overwhelmed

But may drop some good traffic

You can combine them (drop traffic for which you are sure is suspicious, rate-limit the rest) but you gain a littleSlide18

Where Do You Filter?

Near the target?

Near the source?

In the network core?

In multiple places?Slide19

Filtering

Location Choices

Near target

Near source

In coreSlide20

Filtering

Location Choices

Near target

Easier to detect attack

Sees everything

May be hard to prevent collateral damage

May be hard to handle attack volume

Near source

In coreSlide21

Filtering

Location Choices

Near target

Near source

May be hard to detect attack

Doesn’t see everything

Easier to prevent collateral damage

Easier to handle attack volume

In coreSlide22

Filtering

Location Choices

Near target

Near source

In core

Easier to handle attack volume

Sees everything (with sufficient deployment)

May be hard to prevent collateral damage

May be hard to detect attackSlide23

How Do You Detect Attacks?

Have database of attack signatures

Detect anomalous behavior

By measuring some parameters for a long time and setting a baseline

Detecting when their values are abnormally high

By defining which behavior must be obeyed starting from some protocol specificationSlide24

How Do You Filter?

Devise filters that encompass most of anomalous traffic

Drop everything but give priority to legitimate-looking traffic

It has some parameter values

It has certain behaviorSlide25

DDoS Defense Challenges

Need for a distributed response

Economic and social factors

Lack of detailed attack information

Lack of defense system benchmarks

Difficulty of large-scale testing

Moving targetSlide26

TCP SYN Flood

Attacker sends lots of TCP SYN packets

Victim sends an

ack

, allocates space in memory

Attacker never replies

Goal is to fill up memory before entries time out and get deleted

Usually spoofed traffic

Otherwise patterns may be used for filtering

OS at the attacker or spoofed address may send RST and free up memorySlide27

TCP SYN Cookies

Effective defense against TCP SYN flood

Victim encodes connection information and time in ACK number

Must be hard to

craft values that get encoded into the same ACK number – use crypto for encoding

Memory is only reserved when final ACK comes

Only the server must change

But TCP options are not supported

And lost SYN

ACKs

are not repeatedSlide28

Small-Packet Floods

Overwhelm routers

Create a lot of

pps

Exhaust CPU

Most routers can’t handle full bandwidth’s load of small packets

No real solution, must filter packets somehow to reduce router loadSlide29

Shrew Attack

Periodically slam the victim with short, high-volume pulses

Lead to congestion drops on client’s TCP traffic

TCP backs off

If loss is large back off to 1 MSS per RTT

Attacker slams again after a few

RTTs

Solution requires TCP protocol changes

Tough to implement since clients must be changedSlide30

Flash-Crowd Attack

Generate legitimate application traffic to the victim

E.g., DNS requests, Web requests

Usually not spoofed

If enough bots are used no client appears too aggressive

Really hard to filter since both traffic and client behavior seem identical between attackers and legitimate usersSlide31

Reflector Attack

Generate service requests to public servers spoofing the victim’s IP

Servers reply back to the victim overwhelming it

Usually done for UDP and ICMP traffic (TCP SYN flood would only overwhelm CPU if huge number of packets is generated)

Often takes advantage of

amplification effect

– some service requests lead to huge replies; this lets attacker amplify his attackSlide32

Sample Research Defenses

Pushback

Traceback

SOS

Proof-of-work

systems

Human behavior modelingSlide33

Pushback1

Goal: Preferentially drop attack traffic to relieve congestion

Local ACC: Enable core routers to respond to congestion locally by:

Profiling traffic dropped by RED

Identifying high-bandwidth aggregates

Preferentially dropping aggregate traffic to enforce desired bandwidth limit

Pushback: A router identifies the upstream neighbors that forward the aggregate traffic to it, requests that they deploy rate-limit

1

”Controlling high bandwidth aggregates in the network,”

Mahajan, Bellovin, Floyd, Paxson, Shenker, ACM CCR, July 2002Slide34

Can it Work?

Even a few core routers are able to control high-volume attacks

Separation of traffic aggregates improves current situation

Only traffic for the victim is dropped

Drops affect a portion containing the attack traffic

Likely to successfully control the attack, relieving congestion in the Internet

Will inflict collateral damage on legitimate trafficSlide35

Advantages and Limitations

Routers

can

handle high traffic volumes

Deployment at a few core routers can affect

many traffic flows, due to core topology

Simple operation, no overhead for routers

Pushback minimizes collateral damage by placing response close to the sources

Pushback only works in contiguous deployment

Collateral damage is inflicted by response, whenever attack

is

not clearly

separable

Requires

modification of existing core

routers

35Slide36

Traceback1

Goal: locate the agent machines

Each packet header may carry a mark, containing:

EdgeID

(IP addresses of the routers) specifying an edge it has traversed

The distance from the edge

Routers mark packets probabilistically

If a router detects half-marked packet (containing only one IP address) it will complete the

mark

Victim under attack reconstructs the path from the marked packets

1

“Practical network support for IP Traceback,” Savage, Wetherall, Karlin, Anderson,

ACM SIGCOMM 2000Slide37

Traceback and IP Spoofing

Traceback

does nothing to stop DDoS attacks

It only identifies attackers’ true

locations

Comes to a vicinity of attacker

If IP spoofing were not possible in the Internet,

traceback

would not be necessary

There are

other approaches to filter out spoofed trafficSlide38

Can it Work?

Incrementally deployable, a few disjoint routers can provide beneficial information

Moderate router overhead (packet modification)

A few thousand packets are needed even for long path reconstruction

Does not work well for highly distributed attacks

Path reassembly is computationally demanding, and is not 100% accurate:

Path information cannot be used for legal purposes

Routers close to the sources can efficiently block attack traffic, minimizing collateral damageSlide39

Advantages and Limitations

Incrementally deployable

Effective for non-distributed attacks and for highly overlapping attack paths

Facilitates locating routers close to the sources

Packet marking incurs overhead at routers, must be performed at slow path

Path reassembly is complex and prone to errors

Reassembly of distributed attack paths is prohibitively

expensiveSlide40

SOS1

Goal: route only “verified user” traffic to the server, drop everything else

Clients use overlay network to reach the server

Clients are authenticated at the overlay entrance

, their

packets are routed to proxies

Small set of proxies are “approved” to reach the server, all other traffic is heavily filtered out

40

1

“ SOS: Secure Overlay Services

,

” Keromytis, Misra, Rubensteain, ACM SIGCOMM 2002Slide41

SOS

User first contacts nodes that can check its legitimacy

and

let him access the overlay –

access points

An overlay node uses Chord overlay routing

protocol to send user’s packets to a

beacon

Beacon sends packets to a

secret

servlet

Secret

servlets

tunnel packets to the

firewall

Firewall only lets through packets with an IP

of a secret

servlet

Secret

servlet’s

identity has to be hidden, because

their source address is a passport for the realm

beyond the firewall

Beacons are nodes that know the identity of secret

servlets

If a node fails, other nodes can take its role

41Slide42

Can It Work?

SOS successfully protects communication with a private server:

Access points can distinguish legitimate from attack communications

Overlay protects traffic flow

Firewall drops attack packets

Redundancy in the overlay and secrecy of the path to the target provide security against

DoS

attacks on SOS

42Slide43

Advantages And Limitations

Ensures communication of “verified user”

with the victim

Resilient to overlay node failure

Resilient to

DoS

on the defense system

Does not work for public service

Traffic

routed through the overlay travels on suboptimal path

Brute

force attack on links leading to

the firewall still possible

43Slide44

Client Puzzles1

Goal: defend against connection depletion attacks

When under attack:

Server distributes small cryptographic puzzles to clients requesting service

Clients spend resources to solve the puzzles

Correct solution, submitted on time, leads to state allocation and connection establishment

Non-validated connection packets are dropped

Puzzle generation is stateless

Client cannot reuse puzzle solutions

Attacker cannot make use of intercepted packets

44

1

“Client puzzles: A cryptographic countermeasure against connection depletion attacks

,

Juels, Brainard, NDSS 1999Slide45

Can It Work?

Client puzzles guarantee that each client has spent a certain amount of resources

Server determines the difficulty of the puzzle

according to its resource consumption

Effectively server controls its resource consumption

Protocol is safe against replay or interception attacks

Other flooding attacks will still work

45Slide46

Advantages And Limitations

Forces the attacker to spend resources, protects server resources from depletion

Attacker can only generate a certain number

of successful

connections from one agent machine

Low overhead on server

Requires client modification

Will not work against highly distributed attacks

Will not work against bandwidth

consumption attacks (Defense By Offense paper changes this)

46Slide47

Human Behavior Modeling1

Goal: defend against

flash-crowd attacks on Web servers

Model human behavior along three dimensions

Dynamics of interaction with server (trained)

Detect aggressive clients as attackers

Semantics of interaction with server (trained)

Detect clients that browse unpopular content or use unpopular paths as attackers

Processing of visual and textual cues

Detect clients that click on invisible or uninteresting links as attackers

47

1

“Modeling Human Behavior for Defense Against Flash Crowd Attacks”,

Oikonomou

, Mirkovic 2009.Slide48

Can It Work?

Attackers can bypass detection if they

Act non-aggressively

Use each bot for just a few requests, then replace it

But this forces attacker to use many bots

Tens to hundreds of thousands

Beyond reach of most attackers

Other flooding attacks will still work

48Slide49

Advantages And Limitations

Transparent to users

Low false positives and false negatives

Requires server modification

Server must store data about each client

Will

not work against

other flooding attacks

May not

protect services where humans do not generate traffic, e.g., DNS

49Slide50

Worms

50Slide51

Viruses don’t break into your computer – they are invited by you

They cannot spread unless you run infected application or click on infected attachment

Early viruses spread onto different applications on your computer

Contemporary viruses spread as attachments through E-mail, they will mail themselves to people from your addressbook

Worms break into your computer using some vulnerability, install malicious code and move on to other machines

You don’t have to do anything to make them spread

51

Viruses vs. WormsSlide52

A program that:

Scans network for vulnerable machines

Breaks into machines by exploiting the vulnerability

Installs some piece of malicious code – backdoor, DDoS tool

Moves on

Unlike viruses

Worms don’t need any user action to spread – they spread silently and on their own

Worms don’t attach themselves onto other programs – they exist as a separate code in memory

Sometimes you may not even know your machine has been infected by a worm

52

What is a Worm?Slide53

They spread extremely fast

They are silent

Once they are out, they cannot be recalled

They usually install malicious code

They clog the network

53

Why Are Worms Dangerous?Slide54

Robert Morris, a PhD student at Cornell, was interested in network security

He created the first worm with a goal to have a program

live

on the Internet in Nov. 1988

Worm was supposed only to spread, fairly slowly

It was supposed to take just a little bit of resources so not to draw attention to itself

But things went wrong …

Worm was supposed to avoid duplicate copies by asking a computer whether it is infected

To avoid false “yes” answers, it was programmed to duplicate itself every 7

th

time it received “yes” answer

This turned out to be too much

54

First Worm Ever – Morris WormSlide55

It exploited four vulnerabilities to break in

A bug in

sendmail

A bug in finger deamon

A trusted hosts feature (/etc/.rhosts)

Password guessing

Worm was replicating at a much faster rate than anticipated

At that time Internet was small and homogeneous (SUN and VAX workstations running BSD UNIX)

It infected around 6,000 computers, one tenth of then-Internet, in a day

55

First Worm Ever – Morris WormSlide56

People quickly devised patches and distributed them (Internet was small then)

A week later all systems were patched and worm code was removed from most of them

No lasting damage was caused

Robert Morris paid

$10,000

fine, was placed on probation and did some community work

Worm exposed not only vulnerabilities in UNIX but moreover in Internet organization

Users didn’t know who to contact and report infection or where to look for patches

56

First Worm Ever – Morris WormSlide57

In response to Morris Worm DARPA formed CERT (Computer Emergency Response Team) in November 1988Users report incidents and get help in handling them from CERT

CERT publishes security advisory notes informing users of new vulnerabilities that need to be patched and how to patch them

CERT facilitates security discussions and advocates better system management practices

57

First Worm Ever – Morris WormSlide58

Spread on July 12 and 19, 2001

Exploited a vulnerability in Microsoft Internet Information Server that allows attacker to get full access to the machine (turned on by default)

Two variants – both probed random machines, one with static seed for RNG, another with random seed for RNG (CRv2)

CRv2 infected more than 359,000 computers in less than 14 hours

It doubled in size every 37 minutes

At the peak of infection more than

2,000

hosts were infected each minute

58

Code RedSlide59

59

Code Red v2Slide60

43% of infected machines were in US47% of infected machines were home computersWorm was programmed to stop spreading at midnight, then attack www1.whitehouse.gov

It had hardcoded IP address so White House was able to thwart the attack by simply changing the IP address-to-name mapping

Estimated damage ~2.6 billion

60

Code Red v2Slide61

Spread on January 25, 2003The fastest computer worm in historyIt doubled in size every 8.5 seconds.

It infected more than 90% of vulnerable hosts within 10 minutes

It infected 75,000 hosts overall

Exploited buffer overflow vulnerability in Microsoft SQL server, discovered 6 months earlier

61

Sapphire/Slammer WormSlide62

No malicious payloadThe aggressive spread had severe consequencesCreated DoS effect

It disrupted backbone operation

Airline flights were canceled

Some ATM machines failed

62

Sapphire/Slammer WormSlide63

63

Sapphire/Slammer WormSlide64

Both Slammer and Code Red 2 use random scanning

Code Red uses multiple threads that invoke TCP connection establishment through 3-way handshake – must wait for the other party to reply or for TCP timeout to expire

Slammer packs its code in single UDP packet – speed is limited by how many UDP packets can a machine send

Could we do the same trick with Code Red?

Slammer authors tried to use linear

congruential

generators to generate random addresses for scanning, but programmed it wrong

64

Why Was Slammer So Fast?Slide65

43% of infected machines were in US59% of infected machines were home computersResponse was fast – after an hour sites started filtering packets

for SQL server

port

65

Sapphire/Slammer WormSlide66

66

BGP Impact of Slammer WormSlide67

67

Stuxnet

Worm

Discovered in June/July 2010

Targets industrial equipment

Uses Windows vulnerabilities (known and new) to break in

Installs PLC (Programmable Logic Controller)

rootkit

and reprograms PLC

Without physical schematic it is impossible to tell what’s the ultimate effect

Spread via USB drives

Updates itself either by reporting to server or by exchanging code with new copy of the wormSlide68

Many worms use random scanningThis works well only if machines have very good RNGs with different seeds

Getting large initial population represents a problem

Then the infection rate skyrockets

The infection eventually reaches saturation since all machines are probing same addresses

68

Scanning Strategies

“Warhol Worms: The Potential for Very Fast Internet Plagues”, Nicholas C Weaver Slide69

69

Random ScanningSlide70

Worm can get large initial population with hitlist scanning

Assemble a list of potentially vulnerable machines prior to releasing the worm – a

hitlist

E.g., through a slow scan

When the scan finds a vulnerable machine, hitlist is divided in half and one half is communicated to this machine upon infection

This guarantees

very

fast spread – under one minute!

70

Scanning StrategiesSlide71

71

Hitlist ScanningSlide72

Worm can get prevent die-out in the end with permutation

scanning

All machines share a common pseudorandom permutation of IP address space

Machines that are infected continue scanning just after their point in the permutation

If they encounter already infected machine they will continue from a random point

Partitioned permutation

is the combination of permutation and hitlist scanning

In the beginning permutation space is halved, later scanning is simple permutation scan

72

Scanning StrategiesSlide73

73

Permutation ScanningSlide74

Worm can get behind the firewall, or notice the die-out and then switch to subnet scanning

Goes sequentially through subnet address space, trying every address

74

Scanning StrategiesSlide75

Several ways to download malicious codeFrom a central server

From the machine that performed infection

Send it along with the exploit in a single packet

75

Infection StrategiesSlide76

Three factors define worm spread:Size of vulnerable population

Prevention – patch vulnerabilities, increase heterogeneity

Rate of infection (scanning and propagation strategy)

Deploy firewalls

Distribute worm signatures

Length of infectious period

Patch vulnerabilities after the outbreak

Worm DefenseSlide77

This depends on several factors:Reaction time

Containment strategy – address blacklisting and content filtering

Deployment scenario – where is response deployed

Evaluate effect of containment 24 hours after the onset

How Well Can Containment Do?

“Internet Quarantine: Requirements for Containing Self-Propagating Code”,

Proceedings of INFOCOM 2003, D. Moore, C. Shannon, G.

Voelker

, S. SavageSlide78

How Well Can Containment Do?

Code Red

Idealized

deployment: everyone deploys

defenses after given periodSlide79

How Well Can Containment Do?

Depending on Worm Aggressiveness

Idealized

deployment: everyone deploys

defenses after given periodSlide80

How Well Can Containment Do?

Depending on Deployment PatternSlide81

Reaction time needs to be within minutes, if not secondsWe need to use content filteringWe need to have extensive deployment on

key points in the

Internet

How Well Can Containment Do?Slide82

Monitor outgoing connection attempts to new hostsWhen rate exceeds 5 per second, put the remaining requests in a queue

When number of requests in a queue exceeds 100 stop all communication

Detecting and Stopping

Worm Spread

“Implementing and testing a virus throttle”, Proceedings of Usenix Security Symposium 2003,

J. Twycross, M. WilliamsonSlide83

Detecting and Stopping

Worm SpreadSlide84

Detecting and Stopping

Worm SpreadSlide85

Organizations share alerts and worm signatures with their “friends”

Severity of alerts is increased as more infection attempts are detected

Each host has a severity threshold after which it deploys response

Alerts spread just like worm does

Must be faster to overtake worm spread

After some time of no new infection detections, alerts will be removed

Cooperative Strategies

for Worm Defense

“Cooperative Response Strategies for Large-Scale Attack Mitigation”,

Proceedings of DISCEX 2003, D. Norjiri, J. Rowe, K. LevittSlide86

As number of friends increases,

response is faster

Propagating false alarms

is

a problem

Cooperative Strategies

for Worm DefenseSlide87

Early detection would give time to react until the infection has spread

The goal of this paper is to devise techniques that detect new worms as they just start spreading

Monitoring:

Monitor and collect worm scan traffic

Observation data is very noisy so we have to filter new scans from

Old worms’ scans

Port scans by hacking toolkits

Early Worm Detection

C. C.

Zou

, W. Gong, D.

Towsley

, and L.

Gao

. "The Monitoring and Early Detection

of Internet Worms,"

IEEE/ACM Transactions on Networking

.  Slide88

Detection:

Traditional anomaly detection: threshold-based

Check traffic burst (short-term or long-term).

Difficulties: False alarm rate

“Trend Detection”

Measure number of infected hosts and use it to

detect worm exponential growth trend at the beginning

Early Worm DetectionSlide89

Worms uniformly scan the InternetNo hitlists but subnet scanning is allowed

Address space scanned is IPv4

AssumptionsSlide90

Simple epidemic model:

Worm Propagation Model

Detect worm

here. Should

have exp.

spreadSlide91

Monitoring System Slide92

Provides comprehensive observation data on a worm’s activities for the early detection of the worm

Consists of :

Malware Warning Center (MWC)

Distributed monitors

Ingress scan monitors – monitor incoming traffic going to unused addresses

Egress scan monitors – monitor outgoing traffic

Monitoring System Slide93

Ingress monitors collect:

Number of scans received in

an

interval

IP addresses of infected hosts that have sent scans to the

monitors

Egress monitors collect:

Average

worm scan rate

Malware Warning Center (MWC) monitors:

Worm’s average scan

rate

Total number of scans

monitored

Number of infected hosts

observed

Monitoring System Slide94

MWC collects and aggregates reports from distributed monitors

If total number of scans

is

over a threshold for several consecutive intervals, MWC activates the

Kalman

filter

and begins to

test the hypothesis that the number of infected hosts follows exponential distribution

Worm DetectionSlide95

Population: N=360,000, Infection rate:



= 1.8/hour,

Scan rate



= 358/min, Initially infected: I

0

=10

Monitored IP space 2

20

, Monitoring interval:



= 1 minute

Code Red Simulation

Infected hosts

 estimationSlide96

Population: N=100,000

Scan rate



= 4000/sec, Initially infected: I

0

=10

Monitored IP space 2

20

, Monitoring interval:



= 1 second

Slammer Simulation

Infected hosts

 estimation