Robert Keane Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory Rocky Mountain Research Station USDA Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Moritz M A etal 2005 PNAS1021791217917 Multiscale controls on fire ID: 1039929
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1. FireBGCv2:A research simulation platform for exploring fire, vegetation, and climate dynamicsRobert KeaneMissoula Fire Sciences LaboratoryRocky Mountain Research StationUSDA Forest Service
2. Natural Resources Canada
3. Moritz M. A. et.al. 2005. PNAS;102:17912-17917Multi-scale controls on fireField and empirical studies become more difficult
4. So much to simulate… What model? The best models to explore climate change dynamics integrate complex ecological processes over spatial and temporal scalesComplex interactions at fine scales eventually become manifest at coarse scalesModels without these interactions have limited applicationInteractions should be across processes & scales
5. Mechanistic, spatially explicit individual tree succession modelEcosystem process simulationFire ignition and spreadMulti-species / multi-age stand dynamicsOperates at multiple spatial and temporal scalesCaptures climate-fire-vegetation interactionsLandscapeSiteStandSpeciesTreeThe FireBGCv2 modelSimulation platform
6. FireBGCv2 is NOT…A prognostic, predictive modelA model that predicts eventsA model that is used for short-term predictionsAccurateComplexity increases uncertaintyStableHighly complex models are inherently unstable
7. FireBGCv2 is…A regime or cumulative effects modelSimulates long-term ecological effectsSimulates complex interactions across scalesSimulates many disturbancesRobustMechanistic architecture allows wide applicationA research platformExplore new landscape behaviorsCompare various modeling approaches
8. H2OTRANSDAYTRANSFOREST-BGCBIOME-BGCJABOWASILVAFIRESUMFireBGCv2FIRE-BGCStand level gap phase models“Big Leaf” BioGeoChemical ModelsThe Lineage or “Family Tree” of FireBGCv2
9. Key Levels of Organization: FIRE-BGC Simulation DesignLANDSCAPESITESTANDS (Plot)SPECIESTREES
10. Landscape● Seed dispersal● Cone crops● Fire dynamics: Ignition Spread● Insect and disease occurrence White pine blister rust Mountain pine beetle● Management action planningFIRE-BGC Simulation ModelingProcesses Simulated at Each Scale● Climate change● Hydrology
11. Site● Weather● Phenology● Soils FIRE-BGC Simulation ModelingProcesses Simulated at Each Scale
12. StandMost important ecologicalprocesses are simulated at this scaleFIRE-BGC Simulation ModelingProcesses Simulated at Each Scale
13. FireBGCv2 Stand Components
14. Stand Level Processes Flow Chart
15. Fire Effects simulated in FireBGCv2Stand level
16. Various management actionsPrescribed burnTimber harvesting (thinningclearcut)Wildland fire useGrazingWildlife habitat suitabilityHydrologyStream temperatureManagement ActionsStand Level
17. Species● Regeneration● Phenology● Fire effectsFIRE-BGC Simulation ModelingProcesses Simulated at Each Scale
18. Tree● Growth● Mortality● Regeneration● Litterfall ● Wildlife habitat ● Snag dynamicsFIRE-BGC Simulation ModelingProcesses Simulated at Each Scale
19. Dynamic Output● Tabular and map output available● Over 890 possible output variables for tabular summaries● Only 25 map variablesFIRE-BGC Simulation Modeling● Output by landscape, site, stand, species, tree
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21. Six temperature factors: 1 °C - 6 °CSeven precipitation factors: 70% - 130%Ecosystem and fire effectsHow much change is too much?Modeling tipping pointsWARMERDRIER
22. Glacier NPYellowstone NPBitterroot NFFire rotation (yrs)WARMERDRIER169 yrs.223 yrs.56 yrs.
23. Glacier NPYellowstone NPBitterroot NFTree mortality (%)WARMERDRIER59.7%70.3%17.0%
24. Glacier NPYellowstone NPBitterroot NFBasal area (m2/ha)WARMERDRIER38.8 m2/ha26.5 m2/ha29.6 m2/ha
25. WARMERDRIERGlacier NPYellowstone NPBitterroot NFBasal area thresholdsSignificant (P < 0.5) changes in mean basal area for climate change scenarios for MD-GNP, CP-YNP, and EFBR. Solid fill indicates decreased basal area and hatched fill indicates increased basal area as compared with the no climate change scenario. 1°2°3°4°5°6°130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70%
26. Dominant species changesLodgepole pineDouglas-firYellowstone NP
27. CurrentClimateClimate & FireClimate does not affect forestClimate creates new forest composition or structureClimate creates vegetation transitionHypothesized ChangeSame ForestNew ForestGrasslandSage SteppeGrasslandSage SteppeFire Adapted New ForestFire Adapted New ForestNew ForestCurrent ForestGrasslandSame ForestSame ForestNew ForestGrassSageGrassSageFire AdaptedFire AdaptedNew ForestCurrent ForestGrassSame ForestSame ForestNew ForestGrassSageGrassSageFire AdaptedFire AdaptedNew ForestCurrent ForestGrassSame Forest
28. ClimatePhoto: US NPSDouglas-firLodgepole PineEngelmann SpruceNon-ForestWhitebark PineSubalpine FirA2B1HistoricPercent CoverA2B1HistoricBasal AreaSame ForestNew ForestGrassSageGrassSageFire AdaptedFire AdaptedNew ForestCurrent ForestGrassSame ForestSame ForestNew ForestGrassSageGrassSageFire AdaptedFire AdaptedNew ForestCurrent ForestGrassSame ForestNew ForestSame Forest
29. All FiresHistoricalB1A2Fire Rotation320 y150 y120 yMean Annual Area Burned483 ha853 ha1328 haClimate + FirePercent CoverA2B1HistoricDouglas-firLodgepole PineEngelmann SpruceNon-ForestWhitebark PineSubalpine FirA2B1HistoricStand AgeSame ForestNew ForestGrassSageGrassSageFire AdaptedFire AdaptedNew ForestGrassSame ForestCurrent ForestSame ForestNew ForestGrassSageGrassSageFire AdaptedFire AdaptedNew ForestCurrent ForestGrassSame ForestGrassSageGrassSame ForestSame Forest
30. 50% Suppress.HistoricalB1A2Fire Rotation320 y170 y302 yMean Annual Area Burned483 ha955 ha491 haManagementPhoto: US NPSDouglas-firLodgepole PineEngelmann SpruceNon-ForestWhitebark PineSubalpine Fir0% Suppression50%100%Percent CoverSame ForestNew ForestGrassSageGrassSageFire AdaptedFire AdaptedNew ForestCurrent ForestGrassSame ForestSame ForestNew ForestGrassSageGrassSageFire AdaptedFire AdaptedNew ForestCurrent ForestGrassSame ForestGrassSageFire AdaptedNew Forest
31. FireBGCv2 LimitationsDifficult to parameterizeDifficult to initializeLong execution times (20-50 hours)Extensive memory requirements (>7 GB)Abundant outputDifficult to understand and useLong training timeNot really a management model
32. FireBGCv2 AdvantagesOne of the most comprehensive landscape models availableHighly complex, non-linear behaviorsFire-climate-vegetation linkageRuns on any computerExtensive documentationCode availableFlexible structure
33. Final FireBGCv2 InformationCoded in C programming languageCompiles on any platformWeb site: http://www.firelab.org/research-projects/fire-ecology/139-firebgcImplemented for 14 landscapesUsed in over 15 projects…