Zeki Sahin BCI Istanbul 131014 Topics Paul Reinhart AG Supply Demand situation Technical analysis Outlook About us Reinhart is a leading worldwide cotton merchant founded in 1788 ID: 812961
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Global Cotton Market Outlook
Zeki Sahin BCI Istanbul – 13.10.14
Slide2Topics:
Paul Reinhart AG
Supply / Demand situation Technical analysisOutlook
Slide3About us:
Reinhart is a leading worldwide cotton merchant founded in 1788
Headquarter in Winterthur / SwitzerlandFamily owned company
(7th Generation)
Annual turnover about 500’000ts (lint)Involved in sustainably produced cotton (BCI, CMIA, Fair Trade, Organic) / 4–5 % of turnover
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Slide18US Dollar Index, daily
, 1
year back18
Slide1919
Cotton
futures most active month
continuation, monthly, 30 years back
Slide2020
Cotton
futures most active month
continuation, weekly, 5 years back
Slide2121
Cotton
futures most active month
continuation, daily, 1 year back
Slide22Market Outlook
season
2014/15:China: watch the government
policy
, imports will be reduced, less quotas available, support price
for
farmers
remains
high,
competitiveness
of
mills
remains
challenging
.
Producers do not like
current
prices
and
seek
for
governmental
support
(China, India (MSP), USA (USDA
Loan
program
),
Greece
(EU
subsidy
), Brazil
and
others
). Prices
are close to production cost. Record ending world stocks, see Supply and Demand table.Speculators are slightly short. They can change position fast (they prefer the long side). Exterior factors: - health of global economy?, - stronger US Dollar, - end of zero interest policy? - Commodity prices under pressure, - war in Syria, Irak. Mainly negative…
Slide23Cotton Prices
for
2014/15Expect more pressure
on
prices in general Expect a narrow range of price fluctuationExpect an increase
in global
cotton
consumption
Harvesting
and
ginning
accelerates
in the
coming
weeks
,
which
will
increase
availability
Support
program
of
governments
for
farmers
may
take
off
temporary
supply
of
raw
material
Hand to mouth buying for mills will continue Watch planting intentions in spring 2015BCI cotton will increase market share…
Slide24THANK YOU!
http://
www.reinhart.com