Consultation on SAs Intended Nationally Determined Contribution INDC DEFN CLIMATE CHANGE 2 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 3 4 5 6 7 From Durban to Paris INDC To clarify legal status and its rship to the 2015 agreement ID: 802834
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Slide1
PCEA PUBLIC HEARINGS
22 September 2015
Consultation
on SA’s Intended Nationally
Determined
Contribution (INDC)
Slide2DEFN. CLIMATE CHANGE:
2
Slide3IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
3
Slide44
Slide55
Slide66
Slide77
Slide8From Durban to Paris
INDC: To clarify legal status and its r/ship to the 2015 agreement
To develop a Protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the convention applicable to all
-
African COP
Trust building COP
•
Establish the 2
nd
commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol
•
Platform for all key stakeholders to discuss and agree
Launching the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP)
Doha COP 18
•
Warsaw COP 19
Lima COP 20
Doha Amendment to the Kyoto protocol is established
Reinforced INDC
Agreed on upfront information for mitigation
Agreed to include adaptation undertaking as component of the INDC
Agreed on LIMA call for Climate Action
•
ADP Decision that incites parties to initiate or intensify
Domestic preparations for INDC (National homework) and accelerate full implementation
Of the BAP and Pre 2020 ambition
Durban COP 17
Paris COP 21
8
Slide9PROGRESS UNDER UNFCCC
The negotiations under the UNFCCC towards the adoption of a new legal instrument in December 2015 are over differentiation of responsibilities in International Relations;SA operates in the UNFCCC based on its national interests and domestic economic profile, member of Africa Group, the G77&China, and BASIC;SA is viewed as a constructive actor based on its role in hosting and guiding the Durban COP towards a consensus outcome, which is the basis of current negotiations under the Durban Platform on Enhanced Action (ADP);
2015 is the critical and concluding year of the climate change negotiations initiated by the Durban COP in 2011 towards the adoption of a new “protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force” under the Convention.
The Paris agreement will be implemented from 2020.
As G77&China chair 2015 is particularly crucial for South Africa.
9
Slide10South Africans expectations for the 2015 agreement
10
Slide11Summary of SA Position for COP21(1)
ADP - 2015 Agreement should:Be under the Convention, and in accordance with its principles and provisions in particular the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities and equity;Be consistent with science and equity, and further enhance a multilateral rules based system in a balanced and ambitious manner;Provide legal parity between mitigation and adaptation; andensure mitigation ambition keeps the world on track for global temperature increase that is well below 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
Pre-2020 Workstream II
– part of Durban mandate should receive equal priority;
Parties to UNFCCC should urgently ratify the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol (KP2);
Developed countries not participating in KP 2 to fulfil their obligation under the Convention.
11
Slide12Summary of SA Position for COP21(3)
SBs Thematic Area:FinanceSouth Africa support Africa’s call that the 2015 agreement should also spell out the support from developed countries to the developing countries as stipulated in the Convention. It is also important that the capitalization of the Green Climate Fund
be continued in the pre-2020 period to fill the finance gap that currently exists. The
GCF is supposed to mobilise $100 billion per annum from 2020 onwards.
It is important to advocate the yearly targets for the capitalization of the GCF.
The COP also has to resolve the issue of sources and scale of finance for the post 2020 period.
Capacity Building
South Africa has called for
the establishment of the international capacity-building mechanism that can ensure coherence of this cross-cutting issue
, whilst facilitating implementation of adaptation and mitigation in developing countries.
The international capacity-building mechanism under this agreement should be supported through the Financial and Technology mechanisms under the Convention and be linked to adaptation-related institutions.
12
Slide13Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
13
Slide14Scope of work on adaptation A-INDC
14
Slide15Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [1]
Element
Undertaking for the period 2021-2030
Assumptions / Methodologies
UNFCCC context
Adaptation objectives and planning
Goal 1:
Develop a National Adaptation Plan
as part of implementing the NCRP by
2020
Goal 2:
Take into account climate consideration
national development and sectoral policy framework
by 2020/2025Goal 3:
Strengthen the capacity of institutions, and institutionalisation of climate change policy frameworks by 2025/2030Goal 4: Develop an early warning and reporting system for all climate adaptation sectors by 2025/2030National Development Plan, sectoral plans and any future variants Flexible and adaptive sectoral policies that will increase institutional capability Development of national framework for vulnerability and needs assessment well before 2020.International agreement that supports a continuous refinement of South Africa’s INDC, reporting ex post for rolling five year implementation periods 2016-2020, 2021-2025, 2026-2030.
Slide16Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [2]
Element
Undertaking for the period 2021-2030
Assumptions / Methodologies
UNFCCC context
Adaptation needs and costs.
Goal
5:
Development of a vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs
f
amework
by
2020
Damage costs associated with high impact climate events
Emission scenarios considered are RCP 8.5 (low mitigation) and RCP 4.5 (moderate-high mitigation)
.
Annual costs were calculated for 2021-2030 and 2021-2040.
Subject to an international agreement that provides upfront information on support available for adaptation in the context of Article 4.7 and an assessment of adequacy support vis a vis needs
Slide17Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [3]
Element
Undertaking for the period 2021-2030
Assumptions / Methodologies
UNFCCC context
Adaptation investments
Goal
6:
Communication of past investments in adaptation
Identify adaptation investments from official annual reports
.
The
years covered are 2010 – 2015.
Development & implementation of a monitoring and evaluation framework, which includes indicators, to tracking domestic investment and tracking of international support.Report on a 5 year ex-post cycle, subject to CoP determined rules that build on existing reporting mechanism/instruments
Slide18Adaptation component of the INDC
(A-INDC) [4]
Reported costs
Estimates
of present-day and future costs
across
all extreme events
(
2014
real billions
of $US).
Event type
Years
Damage
costs (2014
real)
Wildfires (forestry only)1982 – 2012US$ 0.32-1.28 bn
Storms (Hail)
1995 – 2013
US$
0.
06
bn
Droughts
1992, (2003, 2010, 2014)
US$
0.12
bn
, (US$ 0.07
bn
)
Floods
1900 – 2011
US$ 5.6
bn
Period
10
th
percentile
Median
90
th
percentile
Present-day (1971-2000)
0.417
2.758
22.806
2021-2030 Low mitigation (RCP8.5)
0.413
2.871
30.7952021-2030 High mitigation (RCP4.5) 0.356
2.754 29.8342021-2050 Low mitigation (RCP8.5) 0.232 3.09
53.0942021-2050 High mitigation (RCP4.5) 0.188 2.720 50.030
Slide19Reported costs
Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [5]
For the period
2021-2030,
an increase of 5 % in the median costs is projected under low mitigation,
This
rises to 11 % by 2021-2050.
By
2021-2030 extreme-year costs reach 11 times the present-day mean
,
For
2021-2050 costs may reach 19 times the present-day mean according to the CSIR projections
Slide20Adaptation component of the INDC
(A-INDC) [6]
Domestic investment into capacity to facilitate climate change adaptation increased from US$ 0.26 million to US$ 1.1 million from 2011 to
2015
Implementation
investment increased from US$ 0.71
bn
to US$ 1.88
bn
from 2010 to 2015.
Support
from the international financial mechanisms
Adaptation fund: US$10 Million;
UNEP: US$ 3.5
Million
Slide21Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [7]
Sectoral investments scaled up to 2020, 2025 and 2030
2020 (US$ bn)
2020 (US$ bn)
2030 (US$ bn)
Agriculture and Fisheries
0.75 - 1.19
0.96 –2.39
1.22 –4.80
Energy
0.46 - 0.72
0.59 – 1.46
0.75 – 2.93
Human settlements
0.03 - 0.04
0.03 – 0.080.04 – 0.16Biodiversity0.06 - 0.10
0.08 – 0.200.10 – 0.41Water0.75 - 1.190.96 – 2.391.22 – 4.80disaster risk reduction0.89 - 1.411.14 – 2.831.45 – 5.70key programmes requiring scaling-up going forward, particularly beyond 2020 includeWorking for Water (WfW) and Working on Fire (WoF)
Working on Wetlands estimated at Water Conservation and Water Demand Management
Land Care
Slide22Framing of South African INDC
Mitigation componentThe undertaking is premised on:
Copenhagen pledge to take Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action to enable a 34% deviation below the "business as usual" emissions growth trajectory by 2020, and a 42% deviation below the "business as usual" emissions growth trajectory by 2025
.
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Slide23Mitigation component
23
Slide24Mitigation component of the INDC (M-INDC)
Element of para 14 of Lima decision
Summary of table in discussion
doc
re SA’s M-INDC
Reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year)
PPD emissions trajectory, starting point
2016
Time frames and / or periods for implementation
2025 (firm), 2030 (indicative) and 2050 (aspirational)
.
Consistent with 42% deviation below BAU by 2025
Range for
2030
5-year periods of implementation, aligned with domestic policy instruments: 2016-2020, 2021-2025, etc. Long-term aspirational goal: total GHG emissions in range 212 -428 Mt CO2–eq by 2050Important policy signalScope and coverageEconomy-wide, all sectors, six greenhouse gases
(GHGs) Sources as in latest GHG inventory IPCC major categoriesIncreased disaggregation over time 24
Slide25Mitigation component of the INDC (M-INDC)
Element of para 14 of Lima decision
Summary of table in discussion
doc
re SA’s M-INDC
Planning processes, assumptions and methodological
approaches
Planning processes
:
Development
and climate – NCCRWP and NDP.
Legislation under consideration, will require approval by Parliament.
Assumptions
:
Article
4.7 – extent of implementation depends on provision of support by int’l system; ambitious, fair, effective and binding multilateral agreement PPD range: As outlined in NCCRWP; informed by detailed studies of mitigation potential, have been updated and on-going improvement to move to implementation
Methodologies for Estimating Emissions: 2006 IPCC guidelinesMetric applied: 100-year Global Warming Potential (AR4; GHG-I uses TAR but indicates future use of AR4)Approach to AFOLU: Included, but uncertainty noted, intention to reduce over time and need support 25
Slide26Mitigation component of the INDC (M-INDC)
Element of para 14 of Lima decision
Summary of table in discussion
doc
re SA’s M-INDC
How the Party considers that its intended nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious, in light of its national circumstances, and how it contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2
science
and equity-based approach
Relative fair share relates to science (
2 °C
) and equitable effort-sharing paradigm.
Balanced
:
mitigation
, adaptation and support
PPD contributes by bending curve, in context of povertyConsistent with just transition to low carbon future.IPCC AR5 :
remaining future global carbon budgetImportant flexibility over time, at national level SA expert analysis, applying Convention principles of responsibility, capability and sustainable development = carbon budget larger than the PPD trajectory rangeAccept other analysis gives different resultsOthers must engage in equity analysis as well (African proposal on principle-based reference framework) 26
Slide27Support component of INDC (S-INDC)
Support for both adaptation and mitigation, based on specific sectors and initiatives Support: finance, technology and capacity-building Adaptation: total investment in adaptation increased from $US 0.64 bn to $US 2.31 bn from 2010 to 2015. Details and specific programmes in document
SA invested in mitigation - REI4P, public transport infrastructure, green economy in budget, SA Green Fund (needs to be scaled up)
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Slide28Support component of INDC (S-INDC)
Significant financing required, based on analysis of incremental costs of future mitigation expand REI4P in next ten years: $3 billion per year Decarbonised electricity (renewable energy and nuclear power) by 2050 - estimated $ 349 billion over 2010 to 2050
CCS: 23 Mt CO2 from coal-to-liquid - $0.45 billion
Electric vehicles - $513 billion over 2010 to 2050
Hybrid electric vehicles: 20% by 2030
-
$488 billion
Technologies
identified include
: Energy efficient lighting; Variable speed drives and efficient motors; Energy efficient appliances; Solar water heaters; Hybrid electric vehicles ; Solar PV ; Wind power; Carbon Capture and Sequestration; Nuclear ; and Advanced biofuels.
Implementing mitigation system
– need enhanced human and institutional capacity
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Slide29Equity (1) A-INDC reporting and equity
SA is willing to report on a 5 year ex-post cycle, subject to CoP determined rules that build on existing reporting mechanism/instrumentsEquity considerations in adaptationAdaptation as a global responsibilityrequires international cooperation
SA investments reported ex post, should be recognised as contribution
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Slide30Equity (2)
Mitigation SA experts carbon budget calculated based on indicators consistent with core Convention principles of responsibility, capability and sustainable development: 20-22 Gt CO2-eq for the period 2016- 2050Larger than area under mid- and upper-range PPD: 16-20 GtOther principle-based criteria can be appliedChinese and Indian experts based on cumulative emissions per capita:
7-11 Gt
CO2
eq for 2000–2049, if a starting year of 1850 is assumed for historical responsibility
Meta-analysis of different approaches
, 50% and 66% probabilty of staying below 2 °C
Carbon budgets
for SA by others significantly smaller than PPD trajectory range
Only lower PPD within range in 2020
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Slide31Progress
Account for progress in achieving its INDC under UNFCCCFundamental basis for mitigation: regularly updated GHG inventoriesBiennial update report – 2014 submitted and next in 2016 Positive ‘direction of travel’ for all
countries
No back-sliding;
cannot be weaker than Copenhagen/ Cancun, indeed should be stronger
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Slide3232
Slide33Thank you
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