Henry Chao Vice President System and Resource Planning New York Independent System Operator IEEE PES General Meeting 2015 July 29 2015 1 New York Control Area NYCA A part of NPCC Northeast Power Coordinating Council region ID: 815535
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Next Generation of Transmission & Resource Planning Models at NYISO
Henry ChaoVice President – System and Resource Planning New York Independent System OperatorIEEE PES General Meeting 2015July 29, 2015
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Slide2New York Control Area (NYCA)
A part of NPCC (Northeast Power Coordinating Council) regionInterconnected with PJM, ISO-NE, IESO (Ontario), and Hydro Quebec (HQ)Eleven internal Load Zones2
Slide3NYCA Power System
NYCA System Peak Load RecordsSummer: 33,956 MW (July 19, 2013)Winter: 25,738 MW (January 7, 2014)Total Resources Projected for the 2015 Capability Year
Summer: 41,610 MW
Winter: 42,610 MW
Existing Transmission Lines above 100 kV
Over 11,000 circuit miles
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Slide4Regulations for NYISO Planning
GovernmentFERC orders and regulationsNYS Public Service Commission (PSC) policies and ordersEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations
Reliability Organizations
NERC TPL reliability standards
NPCC Directory 1 reliability criteria
NYS Reliability Council (NYSRC) Reliability Rules
NYISO Tariffs
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Slide5NYISO Planning Process
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Slide6NYISO Planning Process (cont’d)
Special Studies for the Capacity MarketInstalled Reserve Margin (IRM) StudyCurrent statewide IRM requirement: 17.0%Locational
Capacity Requirements (LCR) Study
Current LCR requirements: 83.5% for New York City, 103.5% for Long Island, and 90.5% for Locality G-J
External Capacity Rights (ECR) Study
Determine Import Rights from neighboring Control Areas
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Slide7NYISO Planning Models
Deterministic vs. ProbabilisticDeterministic models still widely usedAnalysis of power flow, contingencies, short circuit, stability, dynamics, etc.Typical criterion: “N-1”, “N-1-1”Conservative but do not consider probabilities Probabilistic models also adopted
Analysis of generation and/or transmission adequacy
Typical criterion: “loss of load expectation (LOLE)”
Address compromise of severity & probability
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Slide8NYISO Probabilistic Models
NYCA Power System Design CriterionNYCA LOLE shall be, on average, no more than 0.1 day/yearSoftware ToolGeneral Electric Multi-Area Reliability Simulation (GE-MARS) ProgramSimulation Approach
Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation
Evaluate each hour through the year chronologically
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Slide9NYISO MARS Model
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Slide10Load Model
Baseline Peak Load ForecastValue at the center (50/50) of Normalized probability density functionLoad Forecast Uncertainty (LFU)Model probability distribution of load forecastSeven load bins covering the distribution range of ±3.5σ (standard deviation)
Load Shapes
Three load shapes with associated probabilities
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Slide11Capacity Model
Conventional Generator UnitsMulti-capacity-state model with transition ratesForced outage & derating status determined by random numbers during simulationTransition rates derived from 5-year historical data in the NERC Generating Availability Data System (GADS)Renewable Energy Resources
Hourly load modifier
The output varies between 0 and the nameplate value based on historical production data
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Slide12Transmission Model
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Slide13Emergency Operating Procedures Model
Demand ResourcesSpecial Case Resources (SCR)Emergency Demand Response Programs (EDRP)Emergency Operating Procedures (EOP)Load controlVoltage reductions, voluntary industrial curtailment, general public appeals
Generation supplements
Emergency purchases, reducing operating reserves
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Slide14Need for High Performance Computing
Heavy Computation BurdenIncreased dimensionality of interconnected systems in planning study modelsNature of Monte Carlo SimulationLarge number of samplings to achieve convergenceAvailability of High Performance Computing (HPC) Resources
Multi-core computer system (hardware)
Parallel computing algorithm (software)
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Slide15NYISO HPC Environment
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Slide16Benefit from HPC Application
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Desktop/Laptop Performance Level: 4 hours
Slide17Benefit from HPC Application
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Slide18Questions?
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