David Simmons Global Head of Research Publications Aon Benfield New York 30 th January 2009 1 Caribbean Catastrophe Risk and Insurance Fund CCRIF 2 Hurricane Dean 3 Example of TSR hurricane Dean forecast ID: 913696
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Hurricane forecastingHow to bet on the weather
David Simmons: Global Head of Research Publications, Aon Benfield
New York – 30
th
January 2009
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Caribbean Catastrophe Risk and Insurance Fund (CCRIF)
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Hurricane Dean
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Example of TSR hurricane Dean forecast
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So what happened?
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TSR wind history showing maximum Dean speeds
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CCRIF after Dean
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Dean and cyclone path forecasting
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Hurricane Wilma – 45 hour lead Cat 1 prediction
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So what interest is this to Insurers?
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Tropical Storm Risk
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Example: Lloyd’s Data Visualisation Service
Example :
Hurricane Dean wind history
Tropical Storm = yellow
Cat 1 Hurricane = green
Slide13Example: Lloyd’s Data Visualisation Service
12
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Potential use of polygon data
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Adding insurer exposure data to TSR forecasts
95% Hurricane Landfall Probability
9 Hour Lead Time
50% TS Landfall Probability
9 Hour Lead Time
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Automated Hurricane Footprints
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Automated Hurricane Footprints
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But...
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But can use forecasts now
Go to: www.tropicalstormrisk.com
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Using seasonal forecasts with peril models
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Refining peril models
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Using seasonal forecasts with peril models
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Use of DFA model to enhance peril model output
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Adjusted Model Results: Impact of skill levels
Skill
Level
Mean Loss
Low Layer
Pr(Exhaust)
Low Layer
Mean Loss
Top Layer
Pr(Exhaust)
Top Layer
0.1
15%
17%
22%
23%
0.2
31%
33%
49%
51%
0.3
44%
46%
60%
58%
0.4
62%
66%
88%
90%
0.5
75%
78%
98%
99%
0.6
92%
96%
122%
127%
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Adjusted Model Results: Event return periods
Sample Company Blend
Modeled Hurricane Losses
Results are based on RMS and 100,000 ReMetrica
b
simulations
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Adjusted Model Results: XL layers
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And the conclusion is?
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Finally a health warning
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Last word from three great thinkers:
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Last word from three great thinkers:
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Last word from three great thinkers:
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