Climate Change Chapter 19 - PowerPoint Presentation

1. Climate Change Chapter 19

2. An Enormous Cloud of Air Pollutants and Ash from Mt. PinatuboJune 1991: Mount Pinatubo (Philippines) explodedAirborne pollutants, deaths, and damageAffected climate temperatureJames Hansen(NASA) cooled the temp of the earth by )0.5* over a 19th month period. Then the earth would warm

3. Earth’s Future Temperature and Climate Change The overwhelming scientific consensus is that the earth’s atmosphere is warming rapidly, mostly because of human activities, and that this will lead to significant climate change during this century.

4. Global Warming and Global Cooling Are Not NewOver the past 4.7 billion years the climate has been altered byVolcanic emissionsChanges in solar inputMovement of the continentsImpacts by meteorsOver the past 900,000 yearsGlacial and interglacial periods

5. Global Warming and Global Cooling Are Not NewOver the past 10,000 yearsInterglacial period, fairly stable climate and steady average global surface temperatureOver the past 1,000 yearsTemperature stable but began to rise during the last century when forests cleared, fossil fuel burnedOver the past 100 yearsTemperature changes mostly since 1975

6. Different techniques……..Analysis of radioisotopes in rocks and fossilsPlankton and radioisotopes in ocean sedimentsTiny bubbles of ancient air found in ice cores from glaciersTemperature measurements taken at different depths from bore holes drilled deep into the earth’s surfacePollen from lake/bog bottomsTree ringsHistorical records - 1861

7. Estimated Changes in the Average Global Temperature of the Atmosphere

8. Our Climate, Lives, Economies Depend on the Natural Greenhouse Effect ( Arrhenius)Without the natural greenhouse effect, warms the earth’s lower atmosphere and surface. Solar energy absorbed by the earth radiates into the atmosphere as infrared radiation(heat)1% of earth’s lower atmosphere is compressed of greenhouse gases- water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide Cold, uninhabitable earth

9. Human Activities Emit Large Quantities of Greenhouses Gases Since the Industrial Revolution (275 years ago)CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions higherMain sources: agriculture, deforestation, and burning of fossil fuelsCorrelation of rising CO2 and CH4 with rising global temperatures, during past 400,000 yearsCountries with the largest CO2 emissions- US, China, EU-27 contries, Indonesia, Russia, Japan, India

10. Human Activities Emit Large Quantities of Greenhouses Gases Per capita emissions of CO2 Scientific and economic studies2007: Field and Marland 560 ppm by 2050 – 1390 by 2100Tipping point 450 ppm2008: Aufhammer and CarsonChina’s CO2 emission growth may be underestimatedIce core analysis – 60% of methane emissions human impact – landfills, raising live stock, extracting fossil fuelsNitrous oxide – nitrogen fertilizers

11. Atmospheric Levels of CO2 and CH4, Global Temperatures, and Sea Levels

12. The Atmosphere Is Warming Mostly Because of Human ActivitiesIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)90–99% likely that lower atmosphere is warming1906–2005: Ave. temp increased about 0.74˚C1970–2005: Annual greenhouse emissions up 70%Past 50 years: Arctic temp rising almost twice as fast as the rest of the earthMelting of glaciers and floating sea iceProlonged droughts: increasingLast 100 years: sea levels rose 10–20 cm

13. Alaska’s Muir GlacierAl Gore and the IPCC : Nobel Peace PrizeNatural and human-influenced factors could have an effect on temperature changes

14. The Big Melt: Some of the Floating Sea Ice in the Arctic SeaDrop in average cover of summer arctic ice

15. Scientific Consensus about Future Temperature Change?Mathematical models used for predictions Global warming: rapid rateHuman factors are the major cause of temperature rise since 1950Human factors will become a greater risk factor

16. Model of Some Major Processes That Interact to Determine Climate

17. Comparison of Measured Temperature from 1860–2007 and Projected Changes

18. Is a Hotter Sun the Culprit?Since 1975- satellite and balloon measurements Troposphere has warmedStratosphere has cooledScientists have concluded that the rapid rise in global mean temperature could not be the result of increased solar output

19. Can the Oceans Save Us?Solubility of CO2 in ocean water – removes 25-30% of the carbon dioxide pumped into the lower atmosphere by human activities. Some of it converted to insoluble carbonate salts that are buried in the bottom sedimentsWarmer oceans Solubility decreases increases atmospheric CO2 Coral reefs destroyedIncreased acidity –less carbon dioxide absorbed, increases growth of some algaedrop in populations of phytoplankton, Antarctica’s Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean –decrease in carbon dioxide uptake

20. There Is Uncertainty about the Effects of Cloud Cover on Global WarmingWarmer temperatures create more clouds by increased evaporation of surface waterThick, light-colored low altitude clouds: decrease surface temperatureThin, cirrus clouds at high altitudes: increase surface temperatureEffect of jet contrails on climate temperature – they expand and turn into cirrus clouds that release heat into the upper troposphere

21. Outdoor Air Pollution Can Temporarily Slow Global WarmingAerosol and soot pollutantslight colored sulfate particles, reflect sunlight and cool atmospheresulfate particles also cool the lower atmosphere by forming condensation nuclei that form cooling clouds

22. Some Possible Effects of a Warmer Atmosphere……………The projected rapid change in the atmosphere's temperature during this century is very likely toIncrease drought and flooding, shift areas where food can be grown, raise sea levels, result in intense heat waves, cause the premature extinction of many species.

23. Enhanced Global Warming Could Have Severe ConsequencesVery rapid, global change in climate – projected rapid increase in average temperature in the lower atmosphereWorst-case scenariosEcosystems collapsingLow-lying cities floodedWildfires in forestsProlonged droughts: grasslands become dust bowlsMore destructive stormsGlaciers shrinking; rivers drying up

24. Fig. 19-7, p. 507Stepped Art

25. Severe Drought Is Increasing from 15-30%less moisture in the soil – NPP will decreasestream flows and available water will declineBiodiversity will decreasegrowth of plants/trees will slowforest and grassland fires will increasesome lakes/seas will shrink and disappear, rivers will fail to reach the sea1-3 billion people will face water shortagedry climate biomes will increase – savannas, chapparal,deserts

26. Ice and Snow Are Melting global warming be worse in the polar regions – exposure of darker land, absorb more solar radiationfloating sea ice disappearing – could affect the average rate of precipitation in certain areasMountain glaciers affected byAverage snowfall, adds to mass in winterAverage warm temperatures- apur their melting during the summer

27. Ice and Snow Are Melting Europe’s AlpsGlaciers are disappearingSouth AmericaGlaciers are disappearingGreenlandWarmer temperaturesAreas of Glacial Ice Melting in Greenland

28. Melting Ice in GreenlandLargest island: 80% composed of glaciers10% of the world’s fresh water1996–2007: net loss of ice doubled Effect on sea level if melting continues

29. Sea Levels Are Rising – 90-99% certainityExpansion of warm water and melting of land based ice– Water will rise 18-59 cm (0.6-1.9 feet) during this centurystorm surges of 6 meters (20 feet)accompanying tropical cyclones and tsunamis

30. Sea Levels Rising Degradation and loss of 1/3 of coastal estuaries, wetlands, and coral reefsDisruption of coastal fisheriesFlooding of Low-lying barrier islands and coastal areasAgricultural lowlands and deltasContamination of freshwater aquifersSubmergence of low-lying islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and the CaribbeanMaldives- Indian Ocean

31. Projected Decline in Arctic Tundra in Portions of Russia from 2004 - 2100Melting of permafrost in tundra soils releases methane and carbon di oxideLoss of arctic tundra-reduce grazing lands for caribouBoreal vegetation would replace tundra

32. Ocean Currents Are Changing but the Threat Is UnknownMelting glaciers, particularly in GreenlandIncreased rain in the North AtlanticCould add enough fresh water to disrupt the flow of deep and shallow ocean currentsCould climate of Northern Europe. N. America and JapanNot thought to be an immediate problem on the ocean currents

33. Extreme Weather Will Increase in Some AreasHeat waves and droughts in some areas- kill people, reduce crop production, expand desertsProlonged rains and flooding(flash floods) from heavy and prolonged precipitationWill storms get worse? More studies needed – Saunders and Lea (2008)Hurricanes Katrina and Rita – lost 320 million big trees

34. Global Warming Is a Major Threat to Biodiversity Most susceptible ecosystemsCoral reefsPolar seasCoastal wetlandHigh-elevation mountaintopsAlpine and arctic tundraChanges in water temperature, relative to coral bleaching threshold

35. Global Warming Is a Major Threat to Biodiversity 30% of land –based plants and animals will disappear (temp change 1.5-2.5*C)What aboutMigratory animalsForestsSome organisms will increaseInsects, Fungi, MicrobesExploding populations of mountain pine beetlesDestroy lodge pole pine forests

36. Climate Change Will Shift Areas Where Crops Can Be GrownRegions of farming may shiftDecrease in tropical and subtropical areasIncrease in northern latitudesOverall food productivity would decrease because of less productivity soilDecrease in food production in farm regions dependent on rivers fed by snow meltGenetically engineered crops more tolerant to drought

37. Climate Change Will Threaten the Health of Many PeopleDeaths from heat waves will increaseDeaths from cold weather will decreaseHigher temperatures can causeIncreased floodingIncrease in some forms of air pollution, more O3More insects, microbes, toxic molds, and fungiNorman Myers – 150 to 200 million environmental refugees in this century

38. What Can We Do to Slow Climate Change……………..To slow the rate of global warming and climate change, we can increase energy efficiency, sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions,rely more on renewable energy resourcesslow population growth.

39. What Can We Do to Slow Climate Change? Governments can subsidize energy efficiency and renewable energy use, tax greenhouse gas emissions, set up cap-and-trade emission reduction systems, help to slow population growth.

40. Dealing with Climate Change Is DifficultGlobal problemLong-lasting effectsLong-term political problemHarmful and beneficial impacts of climate change unevenly spreadMany proposed actions disrupt economies and lifestyles

41. What Are Our Options?Two approachesDrastically reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissionsRecognize that some warming is unavoidable and devise strategies to reduce the harmful effects of global warmingWill we reach a political tipping point before we reach irreversible climate change tipping points?

42. We Can Reduce the Threat of Climate Change Input or prevention strategiesImprove energy efficiency to reduce fossil fuel useShift from non-renewable carbon-based fossil fuels to a mix of carbon-free renewable energy resourcesStop cutting down tropical forestsOutput strategyCapture and store CO2 -

43. Avoiding Catastrophe: We Can Reduce the Threat of Climate Change Socolow and PacalaClimate stabilization wedges Keep CO2 emissions to 2007 levels by 2057Brown: need to do moreCut CO2 emissions by 80% by 20202008 book: Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization

44. We Can Reduce the Threat of Climate Change Output solutionsMassive global tree planting – 4 billion need to be plantedWangari MaathaiGreat Wall of Trees: China and AfricaPlant fast-growing perennials such as switch grass on degraded land which takes carbon dioxide from the air and stores it in the soil. Can be used to produce ethanol

45. Fig. 19-13, p. 515SOLUTIONSGlobal WarmingPreventionCleanupCut fossil fuel use (especially coal)Remove CO2 from smokestack and vehicle emissionsShift from coal to natural gasStore (sequester) CO2 by planting treesImprove energy efficiencySequester CO2 deep underground (with no leaks allowed)Shift to renewable energy resourcesTransfer energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to developing countriesSequester CO2 in soil by using no-till cultivation and taking cropland out of productionReduce deforestationSequester CO2 in the deep ocean (with no leaks allowed)Use more sustainable agriculture and forestryRepair leaky natural gas pipelines and facilitiesLimit urban sprawlReduce povertyUse animal feeds that reduce CH4 emissions from cows (belching)Slow population growth

46. Fifteen Ways to Cut CO2 Emissions

47. Fig. 19-14, p. 515Stepped Art

48. Fig. 19-15, p. 516Oil rigTanker delivers CO2 from plant to rigCoal power plantTree plantationCO2 is pumped down from rig for disposal in deep ocean or under seafloor sedimentsAbandoned oil fieldSwitchgrassCrop fieldCO2 is pumped undergroundSpent oil or natural gas reservoirSpent coal bed cavernDeep, saltwater-filled cavern= CO2 pumping= CO2 depositSome Output Methods for Removing CO2 from the Atmosphere and storing it

49. Is Capturing and Storing CO2 the Answer? Carbon capture and storage (CCS) – involves removing carbon dioxide from the smoke stacks of coal- burning power and industrial plants and storing them somewhereSeveral problems with this approachPower plants using CCSMore expensive to buildNone existUnproven technologyLarge inputs of energy to workpromotes continued use of coalEffect of government subsidies and tax breaksStored CO2 would have to remain sealed forever: no leaking

50. Use Geo-Engineering Schemes to Help Slow Climate Change……..CCS – large scale geo engineering scheme opposed by scientists because long term effects on earth’s energy flow, chemical cycling processes and vital biodiversity are unknownInjection of sulfate particles into the stratosphere by balloons, large jet planes, giant cannonsHuge amounts of sulfur dioxide injected into the atmosphere every 2 yearsWould it have a cooling effect?Would it accelerate O3 depletion?

51. Use Geo-Engineering Schemes to Help Slow Climate Change……Remove HCl from seawater – reduce ocean acidity. How would it affect the ecology ?Pump up nutrient-rich deep ocean water and cause algal blooms, remove carbon dioxide and emit dimethyl sulfide which will contribute to the formation of low clouds that would reflect sunlightRe-ice the Arctic – 8,000 ice making bargesWrap large areas of the glaciers with insulating blankets

52. Cost to Slow Climate Change….Short-term costs lowerLocal and global economies may be boostedProvide jobs because of new technology associated with alternative energyLess expenses for remediation

53. Governments Can Help Reduce the Threat of Climate ChangeStrictly regulate CO2 and CH4 as pollutantsCap-and-trade approach-political advantagecarbon taxes - levy energy taxes on each unit of fossil fuel that is burned – tax pollution, not payrollsIncrease subsidies to encourage use of energy-efficient technologyTechnology transfer-fund the transfer of green technologies to phase out older, energy wasting technologies

54. Governments Can Enter into International Climate Negotiations: The Kyoto Protocol1997: Treaty to slow climate change -2200 delegates from161 nations1st phase – 174 of the world’s 194 countries (but not US) ratifying the agreement by mid -2008.The Kyoto ProtocolReduce emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O by 2012 to levels of 1990Trading greenhouse gas emissions among countriesNot signed by theUS.(2001) 67% of ppublic upsetPresident G.W. Bush’s reasons-would harm US economyCap and Trade systems need to have the caps set low to increase value of the tradable allowances

55. Move Beyond the Kyoto Protocol2004: Stewart and WienerNew treaty neededShould be led by the U.S.Include China, India, Brazil and other developing countries that are getting industrialized and will be soon emitting the more than 50% of the world’s greenhouse gasesCap-and-trade emissions programSet up achievable 10 year goals – to reduce greenhouse gases over the next 40 years

56. Governments Are Leading the Way are……Costa Rica: goal to be carbon neutral by 2030 – 78% from hydroelectric,18% from wind and geothermalNorway: aims to be carbon neutral by 2050China and India must change energy habitsU.S. cities and states (27+ DC: solar and wind) taking initiatives to reduce carbon emissions650 cities around the world, including 453 US cities reduce greenhouse gases Portland, Oregon – 1993-2005 greenhouse gases at 1990 levels

57. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in California (12th largest producer of greenhouse gases)Use of energy-efficient appliances and buildingsIncentives for consumers to use less energyHas saved California from building 24 new power plantsCalifornia sued the EPA so that they and 17 other states can set tougher emission standards

58. Some Companies and Schools Are Reducing Their Carbon Footprints Major global companies reducing greenhouse gas emissions- reduce 10-65% below 1990 levels by 2010AlcoaDuPontIBMToyotaGEWal-Mart $12 million /year saved by using LED’sFluorescent light bulbsAuxiliary power units on truck fleets – no idlingCarbon Disclosure Project

59. Some Companies and Schools Are Reducing Their Carbon Footprints Colleges and universities reducing greenhouse gas emissionsOberlin College, Ohio, U.S.25 Colleges in Pennsylvania, U.S.Yale University, CT, U.S.Largest teach-In Feb 2008-1500 colleges, climate change and sustainability

60. What Can You Do? Reducing CO2 Emissions

61. Prepare for the Harmful Effects of Climate ChangeReduce greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible (50-85% cut in by 2050) to prevent the planet from heating up by 2*CMove people from low-lying coastal areasLimit coastal buildingRemove hazardous material storage tanks away from the coast

62. Prepare for the Harmful Effects of Climate ChangeGenetically engineer crops more tolerant to droughtStockpile 1–5 years of key foodsWaste less waterConnect wildlife reserves with corridors

63. Fig. 19-17, p. 522Develop crops that need less waterWaste less waterConnect wildlife reserves with corridorsMove people away from low-lying coastal areasMove hazardous material storage tanks away from coastStockpile 1- to 5-year supply of key foodsProhibit new construction on low-lying coastal areas or build houses on stiltsExpand existing wildlife reserves toward polesWhich do you think is the most important ?