Jeff Bontrager Colorado Health Institute Marketing Enrollment and Outreach Workgroup MEOW Meeting September 21 2011 bontragerjcoloradohealthinstituteorg Background and caveats This presentation was given by Dr Jonathan Gruber from MIT to the Colorado Health Benefit Exchange Board on ID: 434135
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Slide1
Summary of Dr. Jonathan Gruber’s Health Insurance Exchange Modeling
Jeff Bontrager
Colorado Health Institute
Marketing, Enrollment and Outreach Workgroup (MEOW) Meeting
September 21, 2011
bontragerj@coloradohealthinstitute.org
Slide2
Background and caveats
This presentation was given by Dr. Jonathan Gruber from MIT to the Colorado Health Benefit Exchange Board on Sept 16, 2011
Data source is the 2008-09 Colorado Household Survey and the Gruber
Microsimulation
Model
All numbers are
estimates
, limited to ages 0-64
The final report, including narrative, methods and assumptions, is planned for release
within
the next monthSlide3
Table 1: Colorado Enrollments
Insurance
Category
2011
%
of population
Employer-Sponsored
Insurance (E
SI)
2,650,000
62.3%
Small
Firm ESI (1-50 employees)
570,000
13.4%
Large Group
ESI
2,080,000
49.0%
Individual Market Insurance
310,000
7.2%
Public Insurance
440,000
10.3%
Uninsured
850,000
20.1%Slide4Slide5Slide6Slide7Slide8Slide9Slide10Slide11Slide12Slide13Slide14
Table 2: Estimate of ACA Effect, 2016
No
Reform
With
ACA
ACA Impact
ESI
2,630,000
2,600,000
-30,000
Small
Firm ESI (1-50 employees)
560,000
540,000
-20,000
Other
ESI
2,070,000
2,060,000
-10,000
Unreformed
Non-group
340,000
60,000
-280,000
Reformed
Non-group
0
620,000
620,000
Tax Credit
Recipients
0
470,000
470,000
Non-Recipients
0
150,000
150,000
Public Insurance
550,000
710,000
160,000
Uninsured
860,000
400,000
-460,000
Total
4,390,000
4,390,000Slide15Slide16Slide17Slide18Slide19
Table 3: Summary of Previously Uninsured, 2016 Post-ACA
Adult females 19-44
Adult
females 45-64
Adult males 19-44
Adult males 45-64
Children Ages 0-18
Medicaid/CHP+
39,000
21,000
41,000
11,000
19,000
Reformed or Unreformed Non-group
30,000
41,000
72,000
40,000
29,000
Employer Sponsored
Insurance
38,000
12,000
53,000
17,000
36,000
Total Newly Insured
111,000
74,000
170,000
68,000
85,000
Remaining Uninsured
90,000
43,000
88,000
49,000
84,000
Baseline Uninsured
202,000
117,000
259,000
116,000
170,000Slide20
Table 4: Movements due to ACA: 2016
Ex-ante
ESI
Nongroup
Public
Uninsured
Total
ESI
2,440,000
-
-
160,000
2,600,000
Ex-Post
Reformed
or Unreformed
Nongroup
130,000
330,000
0
220,000
680,000
Public
30,000
-550,000130,000710,000Uninsured40,000-0350,000400,000Total2,630,000330,000550,000860,0004,390,000
Note: “-” indicates a movement that is less than 10,000 but greater than 0.Slide21Slide22Slide23Slide24Slide25
Table 5: Reformed Market Participation and Tax Credit Uptake: 2016
# of individuals
Cumulative # of individuals
Tax credit recipients in individual
reformed market
470,000
-
Employees (& dependents) of firms
receiving tax credit
120,000
590,000
Non-tax credit recipients in individual reformed market
150,000
740,000
Employees (& dependents) of non-tax credit
firms with <50 employees
420,000
1,160,000Slide26
Table 6: Premiums and Actuarial Values for those Remaining on
Nongroup
: 2016
Ex-Ante
Ex-Post
(No
Subsidies)
Ex-Post
(With Subsidies)
Average
Nongroup
Premium
$5,580
$6,610
$4,060
Average
Nongroup
Actuarial
Value
.608
.676
.675
Note: The changes in this table do not reflect removal of pre-existing conclusions restrictions, reuse of any funds that fund the high risk pool (which is now folded into the reformed market), or reinsurance/risk adjustment/risk corridor mechanisms.Slide27Slide28
Table 7: Household Budget Effects: 2016
Status Quo (in billions)
After ACA (in billions)
ACA Effect (in billions)
Per Household Effect
Wages
$162.1
$162.4
$0.3
$130
Exchange Credits
$0.0
$1.0
$1.0
$440
Public Insurance
$0.0
$0.6
$0.6
$270
Additional Benefits
$1.9
$840
ESI Contribution
$4.0
$3.8-$0.2-$90Non-group Premium$1.8$1.8$0.0$0OOP Spending$2.6$2.4
-$0.2
-$90
Taxes
$37.0
$37.4
$0.4
$180
Additional Costs
$0.0
$0
Net Effects
$1.9
$840Slide29
$1,500*Slide30Slide31
$1,150*