October 2018 Appendix – APS Megatrend Survey - PowerPoint Presentation

1. October 2018Appendix – APS Megatrend SurveyIn support of the APS Review: Future trends and scenario planning to 2030

2. Background to this reportAs an input into the APS Review Future Trends and Scenario Planning Report, BCG surveyed APS leadership to understand their perspectives on the 2030 operating environment25 megatrends were included in the surveyRespondents were asked for their perspective on which megatrends are the most impactful, and how prepared the APS is to address themThe survey results informed the prioritisation of key megatrends for scenario development, and provided insight into lead times for strategic responses

3. The BCG APS Megatrend Leadership Survey has gathered input from:2,756Respondents82Departments / Agencies542SES Staff2214EL2 Staff

4. Responses were received from a wide range of agencies2001000500400300Australian Border ForceDepartment of the Prime Minister and Cabinet5058Department of Jobs and Small BusinessAustralian Bureau of StatisticsDepartment of Veterans’ Affairs53492404337Department of the TreasuryDepartment of Communications and the ArtsDepartment of Education and Training46Department of Infrastructure, Regional Development and CitiesDepartment of Human ServicesAustralian Taxation Office233308Department of Defence359180Other1450Department of Foreign Affairs and TradeDepartment of Agriculture and Water Resources# responses97Department of Finance81696969Department of Social ServicesDepartment of Industry, Innovation and Science1. Other covers 65 other agencies including Australian Border Force, Comcare, IP Australia, Office of the Fair Work Ombudsman, Australian Signals Directorate, APSC, Murray-Darling Basin Authority, DTA, National Library of Australia, Australian Financial Security Authority, Office of National Assessments, Commonwealth DPP, AEC, APS Review, AAT, Office of the eSafety Commissioner, Fair Work Commission, ANAO, amongst others2,756 responses82 agenciesSES Band 3SES Band 2SES Band 1EL2

5. Societal and geo-political shiftsAgeing population Rise of global tech giantsIncreasing focus on risk and securityGrowth of major Asian economiesMigration continues to drive population growthGrowing inequalityChanging expectationsFiscal pressure to do more with lessIncreasing citizen expectationsContinued demand for digital governmentGrowing distrust and demand for transparencyRise of new mediaUnclear role of government versus private sector and non-profit/philanthropyIncreasing power of MillennialsTailoring of services to local areasChanging workWorkforce shifting to new skillsetsMore demand for flexible workingIncreasingly multi-generational workforces More collaborative, iterative work approachesAdoption of human-centred designShift from vertical product siloes to horizontal platformsAdvances of technologyIncreasingly data driven worldMore cybersecurity risksRise of Artificial Intelligence & Machine LearningContinuing innovation imperativeUptake of robotics & automationRespondents provided their perception of 25 megatrends, which are classified into four themes

6. Respondents provided their perspective on the impact of each megatrend and the preparedness of APS to address itWhat is the degree of impact?How prepared is the APS?Determine the degree of impact of each megatrend on the APS out to 2030;from limited impact to pervasive impactDetermine how prepared the APS is to address each megatrend out to 2030;from unprepared to unprepared

7. Respondents tended to perceive trends as more impactful if the trend was associated to their employer agencyEmployees outside of the ACT saw all technology related trends as higher impact than their ACT based colleaguesThe 5 most impactful trends were consistent across all seniority levels and locationsKey insightsIncreasing seniority of the respondent saw an increase in degree of impact and uncertainty scores across most trends1 With the exception of 'role of governments vs. private sector'

8. Our survey highlighted high impact trends, and those the APS is not prepared forPervasiveUnpreparedSomewhat preparedSomewhat unpreparedVery preparedLimitedNoticeableSubstantialIncreasing power of Millennials

9. Appropriately harnessing the vast amounts of data becoming available, to ensure policy is directed most efficiently and effectively- EL2Keeping experienced people while integrating new and innovative thinkers could be a significant improvement to the workforce diversity and culture- SES Band 2Having a more mobile, agile and flexible workforce capable of responding to need, and the government's agenda will be critical- SES Band 1Integrate into the local and regional communities and introduce real time feedback about community needs and expectations- EL2Quotes from APS staff emphasise greatest opportunities out to 2030

10. Cyber security risks means that the work and reputation of the APS can be threatened too readily- EL2Failures by agencies to protect public data could see withdrawal of public support for increased automated services- SES Band 1Skills shortages, particularly the ability to attract true technical expertise to deliver innovative solutions for the community- SES Band 2It will be the pace of the impacts and our inability to respond in a timely way that is our greatest challenge- EL2Quotes from APS staff emphasise greatest risks out to 2030

11. For most trends, more senior respondents gave higher impact scoresThe most senior leaders in the APS ranked most trends as higher impactUnclear role of government vs private sector and not for profit2.8Average score across all trends2.7Trends by seniority LevelImpact2.92.2SES Band 1SES Band 3SES Band 2EL2The megatrend unclear roles between government and other sectors is an exception to the rule. As respondent seniority decreases, the perception of the level of impact increasesNote: Quantitative impact scores should be interpreted as: 1 - Limited impact; 2 - Noticeable impact; 3 – Substantial impact; 4 – Pervasive impact

12. Agencies tend to over-index on impact of trends associated with their area of workCompared to other agencies, DFAT staff rated the impact of growing Asian economies higher2.7Growth of major Asian economies2.12.2Trends byAgenciesImpactDHSDFATDefenseDHAATONote: Quantitative impact scores should be interpreted as: 1 - Limited impact; 2 - Noticeable impact; 3 – Substantial impact; 4 – Pervasive impact

13. Survey indicates some differences in perception between ACT and non-ACT respondentsNorthern TerritoryWestern AustraliaACTNew South WalesSouth AustraliaVictoriaQueenslandTasmaniaAll technology related trends as lower impactAll societal and geo-political shifts as higher impactCompared to non-ACT based respondents, those based in the ACT ranked…The risk of growing Asian countries as being more impactfulImpactof risingAsiancountriesNon-ACT2.32.6ACTImpact ofsocietal & geo-politicalshiftsNon-ACT2.72.9ACTImpactof technologytrendsNon-ACT2.82.5ACTNote: Quantitative impact scores should be interpreted as: 1 - Limited impact; 2 - Noticeable impact; 3 – Substantial impact; 4 – Pervasive impact

14. No variation in ACT vs non-ACT impact scores for most trend themesACT vs non-ACT respondents had similar perception regarding the impact of most trend themes, with technology trends being the only exceptionHypothesis that non-ACT respondents are more likely to be in roles that are related to service delivery and will be obviously impacted by advances in technologyChanging workplaceChanging ExpectationsImpactAdvances in TechnologyMegatrend ThemesSocietal and geo-political shiftsACTNon-ACTNote: Quantitative impact scores should be interpreted as: 1 - Limited impact; 2 - Noticeable impact; 3 – Substantial impact; 4 – Pervasive impact

15. No variation in perception of impact scores between policy focused and service focused agenciesThere is insignificant variation in perception of impact between policy focused, service focused and other agenciesChanging workplaceAdvances in TechnologySocietal and geo-political shiftsChanging ExpectationsMegatrend ThemesImpactServicePolicy OtherNote: Quantitative impact scores should be interpreted as: 1 - Limited impact; 2 - Noticeable impact; 3 – Substantial impact; 4 – Pervasive impactPolicy focused agencies include APSC, Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Treasury, Department of Finance, and moreService focused agencies include Australian Tax Office, Department of Human Services, Department of Home Affairs, and more'Other' agencies include National Library of Australia, Registered Organizations Commission, and more

16. AppendixAnalysis by theme

17. Survey results – Advances of technologyPervasiveSomewhat preparedSomewhat unpreparedNoticeableLimitedVery preparedSubstantialUnpreparedPreparednessImpactIncreasingly data driven world

18. Survey results – Changing expectationsNoticeableUnpreparedSomewhat preparedVery preparedSubstantialLimitedSomewhat unpreparedPervasive

19. Survey results – Changing workplaceLimitedNoticeableUnpreparedVery preparedSomewhat unpreparedPervasiveSubstantialSomewhat preparedPreparedness

20. Survey results – Societal and geo-political shiftsVery preparedPervasiveSubstantialUnpreparedSomewhat unpreparedSomewhat preparedLimitedNoticeableImpactPreparednessRise of global tech giants

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