Liquid Geography: The Geography of Vine and Wine - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Liquid Geography:The Geography of Vine and Wine

David R. GreenSlide2

Lecture 4Slide3

Lecture 4http://enobytes.com/2008/02/01/wine-regions-of-the-world/

Wine Regions of the WorldSlide4

Lecture 4

Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics(NUTS)

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/nomenclatures/index.cfm?TargetUrl=LST_CLS_DLD&StrNom=NUTS_33&StrLanguageCode=EN

Slide5

Lecture 4http://www.wineinstitute.org/resources/external-links/statistical-and-economic-information

http://www.wine-economics.org/ Slide6

Lecture 4Economic Geography!

Wine Production, Wine Consumption, and Wine Trade (Export and Import)Annual production of wine in the 1970s exceeded 300m

microlitres

(see

Table 3

)

Achieved on cultivated area of 11m hectares (27m acres)

Approximately 0.75% of total cultivated land in the World

Year to year variation of

figures......Slide7

Lecture 4Slide8

Lecture 4Many factors e.g. Changing weather conditionsFrance alone - even in a bad year - produces more wine than all the vineyards of North & South America, South Africa and Australia combined

France and Italy together produce 45% of the totalSpain is third (20-40m hectolitres)

Argentina and Soviet Union - each around 30m hectolitres

Table

4 (

from

de

Blij

)

shows trends over 1967-1978Slide9

Lecture 4Slide10

Lecture 4Slide11

Lecture 4In some countries land under viticulture is increasingHistorical ups and downs - > declines

(as previously discussed)From Table 4 also e.g. Australia’s production from a local point of view is high when consider the small domestic market and the distances to external marketsSlide12

Lecture 4Wine production is of course dependent on the grapes - which in turn are dependent on the weather conditionsMakes it hard to predict wine production each year

Instead one can use the overall expansion of vineyards as a better indicatorAnd in general - in the recent past - land under grapevines has continued to expand in many (although not all countries)Slide13

Lecture 4Spatial pattern of wine consumption has changed over timeTraditionally the largest producers have been the largest

per capita consumersBut wine consumption per person has fluctuated even in traditional marketsIn some it has declined - in others it has risen

But not always easy to determine from the data and should therefore be seen as an approximation of trendsSlide14

Lecture 4Table 5 (from de

Blij)Data should be seen in the context of the ranking of countries’ total populations

Continued rise in World consumption

(1) Population increase over the past two decades compensates for a decline in per capita consumption

(2) Increasing consumption of wine in countries with large or substantial populations e.g. USA, Soviet Union, West Germany, Spain and even Argentina

In some countries wine consumption has been actively encouraged (versus

‘hard’

liquor)

Helped e.g. in Soviet Union by increased production at home and links with other countries for import e.g. ArgentinaSlide15

Lecture 4Slide16

Lecture 4Other factors that reflect in wine consumption are:

Price (e.g. in many countries wine is perceived to be a luxury item)Cultural preferences (e.g. Japan)Public awareness (e.g. in USA)

In other countries e.g. Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Belgium, Norway and Sweden a very large increase in wine consumption since the 1960s (after years of limited consumption)Slide17

Lecture 4A lot of wine is traded - local, national and also international marketsInternational wine trade from year to year reflects:

Demand for wine not locally producedDemand for low-priced wines in some marketsDemand for high-priced wines in some markets

Demand for wines in countries that do not produce wine (or in any quantity)

Year to year variations in harvest in different viticultural regionsSlide18

Lecture 4Table 6 (from de

Blij)- shows imports and exports

Notice that UK was not a wind producer at the time Table 6 was produced

Imported most of its wines

Although wine consumption per capita is low the comparatively low level of consumption creates a substantial demand in lieu of the market size

Makes UK one of the largest wine importers (at this time 4

th

largest)

Compare article from newspapers today

Good years in wine producing regions is reflected in the ‘flow of wine on the international markets’Slide19

Lecture 4Slide20

Lecture 4Major movements of wine tend to mask the smaller onesFor example, Californian wines largely sold and consumed locally - but this has changed

Wines from Chile and Argentina also finding new marketsMany other countries have increased their exports to international marketsIn general, despite

ups and downs,

international wine trade has generally increased significantly in past 20-30 yearsSlide21

Lecture 4Slide22

Lecture 4World Wine Statistics 2010

World Wine

Statistics 2010Slide23

Lecture 4World vineyard acreage in 2010

Global vineyard surface area shrunk in 2010 to 7.6 million hectares, losing around 10,000 ha. The “old world” is still very dominant although the “New World have increased in importance, gaining just over nine percentage points over the period.

Europe: 57%

Asia: 22%

Americas: 13%

Africa: 5%

Oceania: 2.7

% (e.g. Australia, New Zealand etc..)Slide24

Lecture 4The world wide vineyard acreage has been steadily declining since 2003 when it peaked at almost 7.9M ha. The big “losers” are the traditional big, old world wine countries: Spain, France, and Italy

.The 12 leading countries are:

Spain: 1082

Mha

France: 825

kha

Italy: 798

kha

Turkey: 505

kha

China: 490

kha

USA: 404

kha

Iran: 300

kha

Portugal: 243

kha

Argentina: 228

kha

Romania: 204

kha

Chile: 200

kha

Australia: 170

khaSlide25

Lecture 4World wine production 2010

Just like vineyard acreage, world wine production shrunk in 2010. The total volume of wine produced in 2010 is estimated to be 263 million hectolitre down slightly from 270 Mhl in 2009.

Europe

: 66%

Amercias

: 19%

Asia: 5.5%

Oceania: 5%

Africa: 4

%

The New World has gained 7% points on the old world over fifteen years. World wine production peaked in 2004 at just under 300

Mhl

.Slide26

Lecture 4The 12 leading wine producing countries in 2010 were:

Italy: 48.6 MhlFrance: 45.3 Mhl

Spain: 36.1

Mhl

USA: 19.6

Mhl

Argentina: 16.3

Mhl

China: 13

Mhl

Australia: 11.2

Mhl

South Africa: 9.2

Mhl

Chile: 8.8

Mhl

Russia: 8.2

Mhl

Germany: 7.2

Mhl

Portugal: 6.8

MhlSlide27

Lecture 4Global wine consumption 2010

In contrast to global vineyard area and wine production, that declined, global wine consumption saw a slight increase in 2010, inching marginally up to 238 million hectolitres. World consumption peaked in 2007 at around 250 Mhl, declined substantially in 2008 and 2009. But this

decline was

stopped in 2010 when the consumption essentially levelled out

.

The Old World is by far the biggest consumer, accounting for 65% of the total, but its importance have declined (7 percentage points over 15 years

):

Europe: 65%

Americas: 22%

Asia: 7.9%

Africa: 2.9%

Oceania: 2.7%Slide28

Lecture 4There are dramatic differences in consumer patterns in different parts of the world:

The traditional big producers and consumers have declining consumption: France, Italy and Spain have seen the consumption drop radically.The big growth markets are the USA, China, Australia, Russia and (curiously) the UK (in the longer term).

The

US passed Italy in 2006 (both countries drank 27

Mhl

that year) and looks likely to overtake France as the biggest consumer if the trends continue.Slide29

Lecture 4Country wine consumption 2010

The top twelve countries:France: 29.4 Mhl

(trend: -)

USA: 27.1

Mhl

(+)

Italy: 24.5

Mhl

(-)

Germany 20.2

Mhl

(+)

China: 14.3

Mhl

(+)

UK: 13.2

Mhl

(=/+)

Spain: 10.9

Mhl

(-)

Argentina: 10

Mhl

(-)

Russia: 9.7

Mhl

(short term -, longer +)

Australia: 5.3

Mhl

(+)

Portugal: 4.4

Mhl

(-)

Canada: 4.4

Mhl

(+)Slide30

Lecture 4World wine export numbers (international trade in wine) where

there is a real boom. Wine

is more and more consumed outside the country of production. There are two big drivers behind this: the big producers are consuming less wine domestically and thus have to export more. Secondly, there is a host of “new” wine producing countries that are becoming important wine producers but that have relatively modest local

demand. Looking

back over the period 2002 to 2010

:

Italy

: has seen a steady growth, especially lately and is now the biggest exporter.

Spain

: has also seen a substantial increase in exports (>+50%) over the period and has become the second exporter.

France

: Used to be the biggest exporter but

has seen

a steady, but not dramatic, decline (-12% over the period) and has fallen to 3rd

place. After

these there is a big group of countries that have seen very impressive growth in wine exports:

Australia

, Chile, USA, South Africa, Argentina, New Zealand and curiously even Germany.

The big

loser in

relative terms, in market share, is France, although in absolute numbers it has not shrunk all that much.Slide31

Lecture 4World wine exports 2010

The top twelve countries:Italy

: 20.6

Mhl

(trend: +)

Spain: 17.1

Mhl

(+)

France: 13.5

Mhl

(-)

Australia:7.8

Mhl

(+)

Chile: 7.3

Mhl

(+)

USA: 4.1

Mhl

(+)

South Africa: 3.9

Mhl

(+)

Germany: 3.8

Mhl

(+)

Argentina: 2.7

Mhl

(+)

Portugal: 2.6

Mhl

(-)

New Zealand: 1.4

Mhl

(+)

Moldavia (!): 1

Mhl

(-)Slide32

Lecture 4The top 14 countries

:Germany: 14.2 Mhl (trend ‘05-‘10: +)

UK: 12.5

Mhl

(+)

USA: 9.3

Mhl

(+)

Russia: 5.5

Mhl

(-)

France: 4.5

Mhl

(-)

Canada: 3.5

Mhl

(+)

Netherlands: 3.3

Mhl

(-)

Belgium: 3

Mhl

(+)

China: 2.9

Mhl

(+)

Japan: 2

Mhl

(+)

Denmark: 2

Mhl

(+)

Switzerland: 1.9

Mhl

(+)

Italy: 1.7

Mhl

(-)

Portugal: 1.6

Mhl

(+)Slide33

Lecture 4Slide34

Lecture 4Wine imports 2010

Since wine exports are booming so is wine import. Over the period 1995 to 2010 it has increased from 48 million hl to almost the double: 87 Mhl. The wine buyers have been even more dominantly Old World: today 70% of wine imports are to European countries (including intra-Europe), down though from 83% in 1995

.

It

is perhaps surprising to find Germany at the top of the list, but it has been there for quite some time

.

The big gains have been in the USA, Canada, and China. China is still (in 2010) modest in size, only in 9th position, but in percentage terms the growth has been very high, from almost nothing in 2002.

If

the trend continues (as many producers hope) it will rapidly climb up the chart

.Slide35

Lecture 4