Findings from the Global Energy Assessment Note All material presented here is from GEA Chapter 18 available at wwwglobalenergyassmentorg suggested citation Grubler A X Bai T Buettner ID: 271908
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Slide1
Urban Energy SystemsFindings from the Global Energy Assessment
Note: All material presented here is from GEA Chapter 18, available at www.globalenergyassment.org
suggested citation:
Grubler
, A., X.
Bai
, T.
Buettner
, S.
Dhakal
, D. J. Fisk, T. Ichinose, J. E.
Keirstead
,
G
.
Sammer
, D.
Satterthwaite
, N. B. Schulz, N. Shah, J. Steinberger and H.
Weisz
,
2012:
Chapter
18 - Urban Energy Systems. In
Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable
Future
,
Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY,
USA,
and
IIASA,
Laxenburg
, Austria, pp. 1307-1400.Slide2
Global Energy Assessment
Multi-stakeholder “IPCC of energy” 2008-2011
Focus on energy challenges, options, transitions
Assess linkages: access/poverty, development, security, health, climate
Policy guidance (normative scenarios)
First ever assessment of urbanization: KM18Slide3
3
The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)
Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints
Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policiesCities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
Main MessagesSlide4
How Urban is the World AD2000?Slide5
Urban and Rural Population Projections (Millions) GEA-H
, GEA-M, GEA-L
and
UN WUP, 2010Slide6
Population by Settlement Type/Size
Number of
agglomerations
in 2005
growth
dominated
by small &medium sizedcities!Slide7
7
The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)
Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints
Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policiesCities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
Main MessagesSlide8
Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use(
red= above national average, blue = below national average)
n
=132Slide9
Non-Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use(red= above national average
, blue = below national average)
n
=68Slide10
Path Dependent Urban Energy – IncomesSlide11
Direct and Embodied Urban Energy Use in Asian CitiesSlide12
Urban Energy & GHG Accounting Conundrums
Tradeoffs between comprehensiveness, policy relevance,&
data availability;
Key
: systems boundaries
Production accounting-- clear methodology (IPCC/OECD)-- data availability (>200 cities)-- policy/benchmark relevant (industry, buildings, transport)Consumption accounting-- comprehensiveness (with full accounting)-- intricate methodological issues (no agreed standard, local prices vs national, vs multi-regional I-O)-- data nightmare (estimates for only few megacities)Slide13
13
The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)
Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints
Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policiesCities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation
and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
Main MessagesSlide14
Urban Energy Poverty, Access, & Policy Costs
14Slide15
China - Air Pollution (SO2) ExposureSlide16
Urban Air Pollutants Concentrations
16Slide17
Europe – Energy Demand Densitiesblue = renewable supply density threshold <0.5-1 W/m2
WEU >79% EEU >66% of energy demandSlide18
Urban Density and Car Mobility
Average over cities of the cited area
reference year 1991
Individual cities, reference year 2001
Cities in Asia and South America
Cities in USA and Australia
Cities in Europe
Weak correlation above density threshold
Low density “penalty”Slide19
Urban Energy and Exergy Efficiency
Vienna 2007Slide20
20
The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)
Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints
Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policiesCities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
Main MessagesSlide21
Stylized Hierarchy in Urban Energy/GHG Drivers and Policy Leverages
Spatial division of labor(trade, industry structure, bunkers)
Income (consumption)
Efficiency of energy end-use
(buildings, processes,
vehicles, appliances)Urban form(density↔public transport↔carownership↔functional mix)Fuel substitution (imports)Energy systems integration(co-generation, heat-cascading)Urban renewables
Decreasing orderof importanceIncreasing level ofurban policy leverageSlide22
SynCity Simulations of Urban Policy Leverages
22Slide23
23
The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)
Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints
Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policiesCities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
Main MessagesSlide24
GEA KM18 Authors & Resources
Lead Authors:
Xuemei
Bai
, Thomas Buettner, Shobhakar Dhakal, David J. Fisk, Arnulf Grubler (CLA), Toshiaki Ichinose, James Keirstead,Gerd Sammer, David Satterthwaite
, Niels B. Schulz,Nilay Shah, Julia Steinberger, Helga WeiszContributing Authors:Gilbert Ahamer*, Timothy Baynes*, Daniel Curtis*, Michael Doherty, Nick Eyre*, Junichi Fujino*, Keisuke Hanaki, Mikiko Kainuma*,Shinji Kaneko, Manfred Lenzen, Jacqui Meyers, Hitomi Nakanishi, Victoria Novikova*, Krishnan S. Rajan, Seongwon Seo*,Ram Manohar Shrestha*, P.R. Shukla*, Alice Sverdlik(*Contributors to GEA KM18 city energy data base)Resources:Online: www.globalenergyassessment.orgChapter 18 (main text)
Supporting material: GEA KM18 working papers and city energy data base
A.
Grubler
and D. Fisk (
eds
), Energizing Sustainable Cities:
Assessing Urban
Energy,
Earthscan
(2012)Slide25
25