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Urban Energy Systems
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Slide1

Urban Energy SystemsFindings from the Global Energy Assessment

Note: All material presented here is from GEA Chapter 18, available at www.globalenergyassment.org

suggested citation:

Grubler

, A., X.

Bai

, T.

Buettner

, S.

Dhakal

, D. J. Fisk, T. Ichinose, J. E.

Keirstead

,

G

.

Sammer

, D.

Satterthwaite

, N. B. Schulz, N. Shah, J. Steinberger and H.

Weisz

,

2012:

Chapter

18 - Urban Energy Systems. In

Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable

Future

,

Cambridge

University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY,

USA,

and

IIASA,

Laxenburg

, Austria, pp. 1307-1400.Slide2

Global Energy Assessment

Multi-stakeholder “IPCC of energy” 2008-2011

Focus on energy challenges, options, transitions

Assess linkages: access/poverty, development, security, health, climate

Policy guidance (normative scenarios)

First ever assessment of urbanization: KM18Slide3

3

The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)

Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints

Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policiesCities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main MessagesSlide4

How Urban is the World AD2000?Slide5

Urban and Rural Population Projections (Millions) GEA-H

, GEA-M, GEA-L

and

UN WUP, 2010Slide6

Population by Settlement Type/Size

Number of

agglomerations

in 2005

growth

dominated

by small &medium sizedcities!Slide7

7

The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)

Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints

Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policiesCities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main MessagesSlide8

Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use(

red= above national average, blue = below national average)

n

=132Slide9

Non-Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use(red= above national average

, blue = below national average)

n

=68Slide10

Path Dependent Urban Energy – IncomesSlide11

Direct and Embodied Urban Energy Use in Asian CitiesSlide12

Urban Energy & GHG Accounting Conundrums

Tradeoffs between comprehensiveness, policy relevance,&

data availability;

Key

: systems boundaries

Production accounting-- clear methodology (IPCC/OECD)-- data availability (>200 cities)-- policy/benchmark relevant (industry, buildings, transport)Consumption accounting-- comprehensiveness (with full accounting)-- intricate methodological issues (no agreed standard, local prices vs national, vs multi-regional I-O)-- data nightmare (estimates for only few megacities)Slide13

13

The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)

Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints

Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policiesCities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation

and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main MessagesSlide14

Urban Energy Poverty, Access, & Policy Costs

14Slide15

China - Air Pollution (SO2) ExposureSlide16

Urban Air Pollutants Concentrations

16Slide17

Europe – Energy Demand Densitiesblue = renewable supply density threshold <0.5-1 W/m2

WEU >79% EEU >66% of energy demandSlide18

Urban Density and Car Mobility

Average over cities of the cited area

reference year 1991

Individual cities, reference year 2001

Cities in Asia and South America

Cities in USA and Australia

Cities in Europe

Weak correlation above density threshold

Low density “penalty”Slide19

Urban Energy and Exergy Efficiency

Vienna 2007Slide20

20

The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)

Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints

Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policiesCities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main MessagesSlide21

Stylized Hierarchy in Urban Energy/GHG Drivers and Policy Leverages

Spatial division of labor(trade, industry structure, bunkers)

Income (consumption)

Efficiency of energy end-use

(buildings, processes,

vehicles, appliances)Urban form(density↔public transport↔carownership↔functional mix)Fuel substitution (imports)Energy systems integration(co-generation, heat-cascading)Urban renewables

Decreasing orderof importanceIncreasing level ofurban policy leverageSlide22

SynCity Simulations of Urban Policy Leverages

22Slide23

23

The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy)

Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints

Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policiesCities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main MessagesSlide24

GEA KM18 Authors & Resources

Lead Authors:

Xuemei

Bai

, Thomas Buettner, Shobhakar Dhakal, David J. Fisk, Arnulf Grubler (CLA), Toshiaki Ichinose, James Keirstead,Gerd Sammer, David Satterthwaite

, Niels B. Schulz,Nilay Shah, Julia Steinberger, Helga WeiszContributing Authors:Gilbert Ahamer*, Timothy Baynes*, Daniel Curtis*, Michael Doherty, Nick Eyre*, Junichi Fujino*, Keisuke Hanaki, Mikiko Kainuma*,Shinji Kaneko, Manfred Lenzen, Jacqui Meyers, Hitomi Nakanishi, Victoria Novikova*, Krishnan S. Rajan, Seongwon Seo*,Ram Manohar Shrestha*, P.R. Shukla*, Alice Sverdlik(*Contributors to GEA KM18 city energy data base)Resources:Online: www.globalenergyassessment.orgChapter 18 (main text)

Supporting material: GEA KM18 working papers and city energy data base

A.

Grubler

and D. Fisk (

eds

), Energizing Sustainable Cities:

Assessing Urban

Energy,

Earthscan

(2012)Slide25

25

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Urban Energy Systems - Description


Findings from the Global Energy Assessment Note All material presented here is from GEA Chapter 18 available at wwwglobalenergyassmentorg suggested citation Grubler A X Bai T Buettner ID: 271908 Download Presentation

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urban energy policy systems energy urban systems policy transport change amp carbon systemic management density accounting direct cities final demand gea city

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