Why is the Birth Rate in Japan so Low and What Can Be Done? - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Why is the Birth Rate in Japan so Low and What Can Be Done?

Group 4

Fu Wen, Chen & Chun Yao Chiu

2015.08.06Slide2

DEFINITION : Birth Rate

the number of live births per thousand of population per year.Slide3

DEFINITION:Total Fertility Rate

the average number of children that a women is estimated to give birth to in her lifetime Slide4

The population pyramid of JapanSlide5

Replacement rateTwo people -> one babyTwo babies born per woman keep the population constant.Below

2% since 1978.Slide6

A Record Low of 1.26 in 20052013, Japan’s “total fertility rate,” was 1.43

fell by 0.01 point in 2014 from the previous year to 1.42It is seen likely that the number of newborns —

which fell 26,284 in 2014

from the previous year

to 1,003,532

— will dip below 1 million as early as this year.Slide7

Replacement-level fertilityThis is below the 2.07 to 2.08 children necessary to maintain the population,

also known as replacement-level fertility.The goal is to maintain the population at 100 million in 2060

— compared with 126.88 million today

1.39

rate in Japan as of

2011

:

1.20 in Singapore, 1.24 in South Korea,

1.07 in Taiwan

, and 1.20 in Hong KongSlide8

Number of Births and Fertility RateSlide9

A Population of 97 Million in 2050 Japanese population peaked in 2010, at 128 millionby 2040 the population will be

107.2 million—more than 20 million lower than the current level

decrease, estimating that the population will have slipped below the 100 million mark

by 2050, to 97 million

.Slide10

Japanese populationSlide11

France: A Model of Successoffering families benefits that become increasingly advantageous as the size of the family increasesmake it easier to balance work and family

that offers parents more choices with regard to the relationship between employment and childbirth and child-raising.Slide12

Change in Total Fertility Rate Among Industrialized CountriesSlide13

Various reasons have been cited for the population decline, including:The rising cost of childbirth and child-raisingThe increasing number of women in the workforceThe later average age of marriage

The increasing number of unmarried peopleSlide14
Slide15

What should the government do?Coping with Dwindling PopulationCoping with the low birth rateSlide16

Coping with Dwindling PopulationWhat Japanese society is facing is hyper-aging and population decline.Political ImpactInternational terms

Domestic politicsEconomic ImpactSocial SecurityEtc…Slide17

Political Impact—international termsDemographic aging and population loss have a negative impact on economic growth, so a decline in national power seems all but inevitable

.Even  immigrants cannot solve this problem, the

first priority should be boosting the labor force participation rate among Japanese citizens.Slide18

Political Impact– domestic politicsOne major concern is mounting inter generational conflict over allocation of resources and burdens. The portion of the electorate occupied by the elderly is expected to rise from 28.0% in 2010 to 38.8% in 2035 and a full 45.8% in 2060

The government will find it increasingly difficult to adopt policies that work to elders’ disadvantage. It will be more inclined than ever to “kick the can down the road” when it comes to such cost saving measures as reducing benefits and raising medical pays. the tendency will be, increasingly, to shift the burden to future generations.

The only alternative is for current voters to recognize the urgency of the problem and realize that they have a responsibility to deal with the problem in their own lifetime.Slide19

Economical ImpactBasic 3 sourcesCapital accumulationLaborTechnological progress

So, what is japan performance?Slide20

Economical ImpactA decline in the working-age population will lead to a drop in the savings rate. A 37.55 million drop in the working-age population between 2010 and 2060 is sure to cut into the labor force, since the latter is proportionate to the former

.Demographic aging could generally be expected

to

have

a negative impact on the rate at which

advances

in

technologySlide21

Economic impactWhat can be done to mitigate the economic impact of hyper-aging and population decline?Boosting the labor force participation rate

Increasing labor force participation of women and those aged 60 and older,

I

ncreasing productivity

Raise

the quality of school education—at the primary and secondary as well as the

university level

G

overnment

can also promote higher productivity through deregulation and tax breaks to encourage technological developmentSlide22

Social SecurityThis raises serious problems for Japan because the social security system relies so heavily on the economic output of those currently working to support the

elder who are not working.4 crucial point

S

hift

to a

more

holistic, patient-centered model of health care

.

Stress

in relation to health care is the need to focus simultaneously on quality and efficiency. 

E

mphasized

is the pressing need for measures to secure adequate health care personnel amid a dwindling labor force

.

A

ddress

the issue of generational equity in the distribution of the health care burdenSlide23

Coping with the low birth rateJapanese women complained about the cost for having a child, they think there deserve a better life which without children.Government have published a series of law about the raising allowance. To encourage women have baby.

Change the concept of whole society to let people realize that raising babies is the basic social responsibility.

Making policies on the stand of families and children.

And the neighborhood, public group and private enterprise and even the society must support.

Begin a new countermeasure with low birth rate and support the families

rasing

babies.

Begin a common practice that their child and their life are the most valuable treasure. Slide24

Can Japan Boost Its Low Birth rate?A long-term vision on Japan’s population trend, compiled by the government last year, estimates that a recovery in the total fertility rate to around 1.8 in 2030 and 2.07 in 2040 would enable the country to keep its population at 100 million in 2060 and stabilize it around 90 million in 2090

Policymakers need to be aware that such efforts are not going to immediately halt the population’s downtrend, This means that it would take more than 70 years before the population decline is halted even if the birthrate recovers.

The efforts highlighted in the outline must be sustained over the long-term as a key government policy.Slide25

Can Japan Boost Its Low Birthrate?Among these steps to encourage young people to marry and start families, the outline calls for efforts to increase their job securityIt has long been warned that growing ranks of Japanese youths hesitate to marry due to employment instability and poor incomesSlide26

ConclusionFertility has fallen below the replacement rate in several East Asian and Southeast Asian nations; indeed, the birthrate in Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore is now even lower than that in Japan. No other countries have ever been a

hyper-aged society except Japan.The world is watching closely to see how

Japan

respond to the challenge of hyper-aging and demographic decline

One

of the frightening things about demographic crises is that by the time people see them coming, there is little they can do to prevent them

.

Although many conditions can appear before it happens,

w

e should visualize

and prepare ourselves for the

results.Slide27

Thank you for the listening!