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Robo-Economics:
Robo-Economics:

Robo-Economics: - PowerPoint Presentation

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Robo-Economics: - Description

Getting from Here to There Darryl Jenkins June 12 2013 Flight Plan I do believe that commercial UAVs will change everything What I missed in the study 3 The really important parts of my study ID: 541566 Download Presentation

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Presentation on theme: "Robo-Economics:"— Presentation transcript

Slide1

Robo-Economics:Getting from Here to There

Darryl Jenkins

June 12, 2013Slide2

Flight Plan

I do believe that commercial UAV’s will change everything,

What I missed in the study,

3

. The really important parts of my study

A. Insurance: The 800 pound gorilla,

B. Financing a growing industry

Phasing in the regulations

How the Privacy Issue may play out.Slide3

Why I did this report

I have spent my career in an industry that has destroyed billions of dollars of vale and the opportunity to be in one that creates value is exciting.Slide4

I am a True Believer

This will be a very big industry.

Over the next ten years people will become millionaires from this, and

Some who are currently in this business will fall by the waysides.

The most important part of my study was the necessary conditions. These are things which must happen and if they do not, then everything stalls.Slide5

What I Missed

I was never sure of which business models will prevail: Small owners vs. larger owner of many vehicles. Slide6

What I Missed

In the airline business, the largest owner of airplanes is a leasing company.

Will these exist UAV leasing companies?

Will there be capital vs. operating leases?

Over what time period will these leases be?Slide7

What I Missed

A lot of the answers to these questions will be a function of the rate of technical obsolesce and how important new break-thru is to users.Slide8

The Really Important Parts of my Study

The Necessary Conditions

For this industry to take off in the manner I envision it, a number of things must happen:

Well thought out regulations,Slide9

Trivia Question

In the movie Jurassic Park, why were the outside academic consultants called in?Slide10

Trivia Question

In the movie Jurassic Park, why were the outside academic consultants called in

?

An insurance company threatened to pull coverage because the T-Rex ate one of the workers.Slide11

Trivia Question

What almost killed General aviation in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s?Slide12

Trivia Question

What almost killed General aviation in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s

?

High Cost of Insurance CoverageSlide13

Insurance the 800 Pound Guerilla

The UAV industry will die in its infancy if the following forms of insurance are not available:

Manufacturers liability,

Hull Insurance,

Users and operators liability.Slide14

Insurance the 800 Pound Guerilla

If a company has uncovered liabilities:

You cannot get financing to grow!Slide15

Insurance the 800 Pound Guerilla

Currently, you can get manufacturers liability insurance in the United States. What we do not have is:

Hull insurance, and

Operators and users liability insuranceSlide16

Insurance the 800 Pound Guerilla

We could probably without much effort get the following:

Liability for operators and users for rural areas.Slide17

Insurance the 800 Pound Guerilla

The likelihood for getting liability insurance for users and operators for UAV’s in non-rural areas out of the gate, is very limited.

We have little or no data and the potential liabilities are very high.Slide18

Insurance the 800 Pound Guerilla

Insurance will pick the initial winners and losers.

Those who have insurance will have a better chance of finding financing.

No insurance, no financing.Slide19

Insurance the 800 Pound Guerilla

This tells us right out of the gate that using UAV’s for home deliveries of pizzas and tacos is a total non-starter.Slide20

Insurance the 800 Pound Guerilla

Insurance may be the solution to some of the privacy issues.

If manufacturers, users, operators, financiers, insurers were to agree to an ethical standard of conduct then the fruitcakes can be marginalized. Slide21

Insurance the 800 Pound Guerilla

There is a law universally decreed before the foundation of this world, that fruitcakes (those who will misuse UAV’s) always appear at Holy times and when you do not want them.

This can be the biggest issue facing the long term regulation of UAV’s.Slide22

Insurance the 800 Pound Guerilla

The idea behind using insurance to marginalize the privacy issue is to get rid of the bulk of the fruitcakes as they can never be totally eliminated.

If we can do this we go way down the road on this issue.Slide23

Insurance the 800 Pound Guerilla

The issuance of hull insurance will be tricky and initially somewhat costly. However, bulk commercial purchases of UAV’s are impossible without hull insurance.Slide24

Insurance the 800 Pound Guerilla

An necessary condition for bringing down hull insurance costs is an industry wide database.

Manufacturers, operators, and users will have to share data.

This has its own privacy issues, but these are minor compared to the need and easily handled thru proper contracts.Slide25

Financing the New Frontier

Growing industries desperately need cash:

There is no growth without cash to finance inventory and capital needs, growing payrolls, etc.

Slide26

Financing the New Frontier

For some this will not be a problem.

For others, the need for cash will be at the center of every decision.Slide27

Questions

Darryl Jenkins

airjenkins@aol.com

540-364-6913