Price Forecast of Black Pepper for - PDF document

Price Forecast of Black Pepper for May , June and July 2015 Pepper p rices to increase Black pepper, the ‘K ing of spices’ is a perennial crop grown for its berries , which is usually dried and used as spice. Vietnam is the largest producer and exporter of black pepper . India is producer and the largest consumer among the black pepper producing countries in the world. As per the International Pepper Community, the global output of pepper in 2015 is estimated as 3, 74 ,500 tonne s . The production in India during 2015 is forecasted to be around 70,000 tonnes which is almost double the production in 2014 . T h ough the domestic consumption in India is projected to be around 4 8 , 000 tonnes with an annual growth of 7 to 8 per cent , the global consumption is expected to grow only at 4 per cent annually due to the lower growth in consumption Harvesting of p epper in India extends from early December to late March. Kerala and Karnataka account for more than 80 per cent of the production of black pepper in India . The output in Kerala in 2015 is expected to be higher than the previous year. According to Spices Board, the production in Karnataka is expected be 30 - 35 per cent more than the normal production . The major share of arrivals in markets in the recent months was from Karnataka rather than Kerala. Lower production and higher prices in 2014 have almost exhausted the previous stocks and hence the t raders were expecting a n up ward movement in pepper price s from May 2015 . But the unfavourable weather in major growing regions of the state and the uncertainty regarding the open market release of more than 6000 tonnes of tainted pepper from warehouses after cleaning and testing ha ve raised concerns over the availability of the product. India, which is among the la rgest consumers of black pepper , exported 14,500 tonnes during the period from April to December 2014 and had been importing mainly from Vietnam , Srilanka and Indonesia . The pepper import to India ha s been estimated to be in the range of 18000 to 20000 tonnes in 2014 - 15. Import of pepper from Vietnam to India in 2014 - 15 increased by more than 50 per cent over the previous year and it was mainly to meet the needs of the manufacturers of high end va lue added product s . Though India was t he major source of ground pepper for US in 2014, t he country imported less of pepper from India in 2014 as Price Forecast of Black Pepper for May , June and July 2015 compared to the previous years . The better crop prospect for pepper in India is expected to make it more competitive in the export market. Price of b lack pepper was expected to decline especially in the first quarter of 2015 because of increase in production in all the producing countries with the except ion of Vietnam where the production is estimated to be slightly lower as compared to the previous year . The price disparity among producing countries has also narrowed down in 2015 and t he drop in prices in the first quarter of 2015 in India could be attributed to the harvesting season and post - harvest arrivals . Even though production has increased in India, a major share of the increased production will be absorbed because of strong internal demand, especially for industrial uses . D ue to limited stocks in India and most of the other producing countries, pepper harvested in the year will be easily absorbed by the market and the price i s expected to remain firm in the later months of the year. C onsidering the overall production and mar ket information, with increasing domestic consumption as well as exports, there is an expectation of rev ival of pric es from May 2015 unless significant changes occur in demand - supply situation . With the above market sentiments, the econometric analysis of monthly prices in Kochi market for ungarbled pepper (for a period of 20 years from 1995) and traders’ survey conducted as part of the “ ICAR - Network P roject on M arket I ntelligence ” found that the b ullis h phase in black pepper will continue during the months of May , June and July 2015 . A s this forecast will prevail only with the above market sentiments and could vary with changes in the market situation , the farmers are advised to take suitable selling decisions. The ranges of forecasted prices are as follows: Months Forecasted Price ( ₹ per Kilogram ) May 20 1 5 550 - 590 June 20 1 5 570 - 6 10 July 20 1 5 590 - 640 Research Team Dr.Jesy Thomas K., Dr.Anil Kuruvila, Dr.Chitra Parayil, Mr.Vinil Ravi and Ms Rohini K ICAR - Network Project on Market Intelligence College of Horticulture, Vellanikkara, Kerala A gricultural University, Thrissur Price Forecast of Coconut for Ma y , June and July 201 5 S tability in prices expected for ` c oconut India is the largest producer of coconut after Indonesia and Philippines and it accounts for 18 percent of the global coconut production . Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh together account for more than 90 per cent of the total production of coconut in India . The coconut production in India has decreased by 10 per cent in 2014 - 15 over the previous year. Kerala is accounting for about 37 per cent of the area and 28 per cent of the production in the country . The production of coconut in Kerala was 5,921 million nuts in 2013 - 14 and the estimate for 2014 - 15 is 4,886 million nuts , exhibiting a decline of 17.48 per cent . While Idukki, Kottayam and Kollam districts exhibited substantial decline in production, significant growth in production was observed in Alappuzha district. Even t hough Kerala has the larg est area under coconut cultivation in the country , the productivity is only 6042 nuts per hectare because of predominance of old and senile trees in homesteads, high incidence of disease s , mit e attack and deficient rainfall . The peak harvesting period of coconut in Kerala is from January to June accounting for about 60 per cent of the total production. A bout 45 percent of the production is used as mature nuts, 37 percent for milling copra, eight percent for ball copra and 10 percent is consumed in tender form. With the commencement of the peak season in 2015 there has been good demand for raw nuts both f rom upcountry and overseas markets but there was no sizeable increase in market arrivals. The lower production of raw nuts due to drought and reduced availability of coconut for ball copra production in Karnataka have caused the coconut prices to rise sharply. Several companies in Karnataka were also purchasing dehusked coconut from Kasaragod at ₹ 32 per kg for converting it into copra. The price of copra is dependent on the demand for and prices of coconut oil. Tr aders have opined that the market price of coconut was rising due to short supply of copra resulting from higher demand for coconut by - products such as coconut powder, virgin coconut oil, desiccated coconut etc. The increase in demand for tender coconut in summer months and the rising prices of tender coconut due to low arrivals ha ve in turn reduced the sup ply of coconut for copra making . The average market arrivals of copra in Kerala decreased by 33 per cent in 2014 - 15 and the pressure on copra prices is unlikely to ease much in Kerala mainly because of lower production in Kerala. It is also expected that the restrictions on the entry of adulterated coconut oil into Kerala could drive the coconut prices up in the upcoming months . Price Forecast of Coconut for Ma y , June and July 201 5 The survey of c oconut and copra traders highlighted that t he price of coconut is ruling around ₹ 30 to 32 per kg in Kerala . Minimum Support Price s of ₹ 5550 per Quintal and ₹ 5850 per Quintal were announced for mil ling and ball copra for the year 2014 - 15 by the Gov ernment of India . The procurement price of coconut in Kerala has been increased from ₹ 25 per kg to ₹ 28 per kg . Global trends have limited impact on domestic market as the entire production is absorbed domestically and the share in global trade is negligible. With the increasing demand for raw as well as tender coconut, copra and other coconut products, the price of coconut is likely to remain stable in the second quarter of 2015. The “ICAR - Network P roject on M arket I ntelligence” views that the price of coconut will remain stable with a chance for slight revival during the second quarter of 2015 . Th is prediction is based on the econometric analysis of month ly price data at Alappuzha market for partially dehusked coconut (for a period of 11 years from 2004 ) and traders’ survey . As this forecast will prevail only with the above market sentiments, the farmers are advised to take sui table selling decisions. The ranges of prices predicted are as follows: Months Forecasted Price ( ₹ per 1 000 nuts) May 2015 1 11 50 - 1 1 250 June 2015 1 1 1 1 0 - 1 1210 July 2015 11 070 - 1 1170 Research Team Dr.Jesy Thomas K., Dr.Anil Kuruvila, Dr.Chitra Parayil , Mr.Vinil Ravi and Ms Rohini K ICAR - Network Project on Market Intelligence College of Horticulture, Vellanikkara, Kerala A gricultural University, Thrissur Price Forecast of Tapioca for May, June and July 2015 Tapioca prices to remain stable Tapioca is the major source of calories in tropical countries after rice and maize. The world tapioca production in 2014 was estimated as 291 million tonnes, with a 4.6 percent increase from 2013. Nigeria is the major country growing tapioca in the world a ccounting for about 18 per cent of the area and 20 per cent production. The largest exporter of dried tapioca is Thailand while China is the major importer. India occupies the 10 th position in global tapioca production and is third largest producer in Asia . Tapioca was cultivated in an area of 2.28 lakh hectares in India, with a total production of 8.1 million tonnes in 2013 - 14. Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh account for 93 per cent of the area and 98 per cent of the production of tapioca in the coun try. Tamil Nadu stands first both in area and production followed by Kerala and these two states accounted for about 61 per cent and 31 per cent of the production in India in 2013 - 14. The area under tapioca in Kerala in 2013 - 14 was 67,589 hectares and the production was 24.8 lakh tonnes. Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram districts account for 24 per cent and 21 per cent of the area under the crop in the state. The forecasted area of tapioca in Kerala for 2014 - 15 is 71,074 hectares with a production of 25.8 lakh tonnes. India export several forms of tapioca including raw tapioca tuber, starch, sago and sago pith. In 2013 - 14, India exported tapioca worth ₹ 133.2 million while the value of export was ₹ 102.9 millio n during April to December, 2014 . Tapioca is ext ensively grown as a food crop in Kerala, whereas it is cultivated mainly for starch and sago industries in Tamil Nadu. Though tapioca is available in Tamil Nadu from July to April, the peak availability is during winter months from November to February whe n the starch content in tubers is at its peak. The very high prices that were prevalent for tapioca in Kerala during 2014, led to an increase in acreage under the crop and the consequent addition to production in the current year is estimated to be more th an one lakh tonnes. The higher production and unseasonal rains have forced farmers to distress sale of tapioca. Tapioca prices have dropped this season and at the retail level, the prices have fallen from ₹ 20 - 25 per Kilogram in 2014 to ₹ 10 - 15 per Kilogra m in the first quarter of 2015. While the average price in Chalai market in Thiruvananthapuram decreased from ₹ 15 in January 2015 to ₹ 12 in April 2015, it remained stable at ₹ 20 per kg during these months in the Kozhikode market. The average price decli ned from ₹ 12 in January 2015 in the Ernakulam market to ₹ 8 in April 2015 . The stable Price Forecast of Tapioca for May, June and July 2015 prices in Kozhikode market could be attribu ted to the lower production in the northern districts and reduced arrivals from outside. The “ICAR Network Project on Market Intelligence” views that the prices are likely to remain at the present levels in the coming months. The prediction is based on ec onometric analysis of monthly price data from 2009 for three major markets of tapioca in Kerala and traders’ survey. As this forecast will prevail only with the above market sentiments and could vary with changes in the market situation, the farmers are ad vised to take suitable selling decisions. The ranges of predicted prices are as follows: Forecasted Price ( ₹ per Kg) Months Calicut Ernakulam Chalai, Thiruvananthapuram May 2015 19 – 21 9 – 11 11 – 13 June 2015 19 – 21 9 – 11 11 – 13 July 2015 19 – 21 9 – 11 11 – 13 Research Team Dr.Jesy Thomas K., Dr.Anil Kuruvila, Dr.Chitra Parayil Mr Vinil Ravi and Ms. Rohini K ICAR - Network Project on Market Intelligence College of Horticulture, Vellanikkara, Kerala Agricultural University, Thrissur