Where Will Fatal Crime Occur In St. Louis in 2014? - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Where Will Fatal Crime Occur In St. Louis in 2014?

Presented by:

Andrew West

Eric Warrington

Justin

SchicklerSlide2

Objective and BackgroundGoal is to analyze crime data using a statistical approach to predict where fatal crimes will occur in the city of St Louis.The city has recently undergone a redistricting, lowering it from 9 down to 6 police districts. As of now there is not enough data to show that this has or will changed the crime rate in any way.

Violent crime data from

2007 to 2013 of each neighborhood in St. Louis was used in our predictions.

Crime data is reported

based on the city population

only and does not include the county.Slide3

St. Louis Murder Trend

Murders have decreased over the past 7 years Slide4

AssumptionsLower income neighborhoods have higher crimeNeighborhoods with high aggravated assault and armed robbery have high correlation to murders

Most homicides are committed using guns

A neighborhoods previous years murder rates are good predictors for future murders.

Possible Discrepancies

Note change in districts and how this could change predictions of crime in 2014 Slide5

Method 1Using the Trend function in Excel, we predicted the number of murders for each neighborhood in 2014The Trend Function uses linear regression to predict the value of the next data item

Developed a separate regression equation for each neighborhood

This case is simple linear regression because there is only

one

independent

variable (murders)Slide6

Predicted amounts of murdersby Neighborhood

Academy

1

Baden

9

Benton Park

0

Benton Park West

1

Bevo

Mill

1

Botanical Heights0Boulevard Heights1Cal-Bell Cem0Carondelet3Carondelet Park0Carr Square1Central West End1Cheltenham0Clayton-Tamm0Clifton Heights0College Hill6Columbus Square1Compton Heights0Covenant-Blu/Grand Ctr0DeBaliviere Place0Downtown3Downtown West0Dutchtown6Ellendale0Fairground5Fairground Park0

Forest Park0Forest Park SE0Fountain Park1Fox Park2Franz Park0Gravois Park5Hamilton Heights2Hi-Point0Holly Hills0Hyde Park3Jeff Vanderlou4Kings Oak0Kingsway East2Kingsway West3Kosciusko0La Salle0Lafayette Square0Lewis Place0Lindenwood Park1Marine Villa0Mark Twain2Mark Twain I-70 Ind.3McKinley Heights1Midtown1Mount Pleasant2

Near N. Riverfront2North Hampton0North Point4North Riverfront0O'Fallon6O'Fallon Park0Old North St. Louis1Patch1Peabody-Darst-Webbe1Penrose4Penrose Park0Princeton Heights0Riverview0Shaw0Skinker-DeBaliviere0Soulard1South Hampton0Southwest Garden0St. Louis Hills0St. Louis Place2The Botanical Garden0The Gate District0The Greater Ville4The Hill0

The Ville1Tiffany0Tower Grove East2Tower Grove Park0Tower Grove South1Vandeventer1Visitation Park0Walnut Park East4Walnut Park West3Wells-Goodfellow4West End2Willmore Park0Wydown-Skinker0

TOTAL

115Slide7

Method 2Test to see whether income and aggravated assaults had a significant impact on the number of murdersy= 0.3814 + 0.0607(Assault) – 5.991x10-6

(Income)

Results showed that income did not have a significant impact on the number of murders

Adjusted R

2

= 0.48

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Intercept

0.38140.8054290.4734810.637322Agg. Assault0.06070.0080907.5072210.000000Income0.00000.000026-0.2279580.820334Slide8

Method 3Test the significance of aggravated assaults and armed robbery on the number of murdersy= 0.0018 + 0.0343(Robbery) + 0.0538(Assault)Results showed that both variables were significant

Adjusted R

2

= .99

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Intercept

0.0018

0.1517

0.01180.9906Robbery0.03430.02171.58070.1176Assault0.05380.01264.26750.0001Slide9

Method 3 (cont.)Use SLOPE and INTERCEPT functions on Excel to create a trend line for each variable

Neighbor-hood

Robbery Slope

Robbery Intercept

Forecast

Academy

-3.32

3.54

14

Baden

-7.18

51.38

24Benton Park-0.215.2313Benton Park W.-4.937.7710Bevo Mill-1.3918.9226Slide10

Method 3 (cont.)

Neighborhood

Assault Slope

Assault Intercept

Forecast

Academy

-7.61

64.43

4

Baden

-2.32

78.57

60Benton Park-0.187.576Benton Park W.-7.7571.009Bevo Mill0.5418.1522Slide11

Method 3 (cont.)Plug in armed robbery and agg. assaults forecasts into regression equationy= 0.0018 + 0.0343(Robbery) + 0.0538(Assault)

Academy

1

Baden

4

Benton Park

1

Benton Park West

1

Bevo

Mill

2

Botanical Heights0Boulevard Heights1Cal-Bell Cem-1Carondelet3Carondelet Park-1Carr Square2Central West End2Cheltenham0Clayton-Tamm0Clifton Heights-1College Hill2Columbus Square2Compton Heights0Covenant-Blu2DeBaliviere Place-1Downtown4Downtown West1Dutchtown10Ellendale0

Fairground3Fairground Park0Forest Park0Forest Park SE1Fountain Park1Fox Park1Franz Park0Gravois Park3Hamilton Heights1Hi-Point0Holly Hills0Hyde Park2Jeff Vanderlou4Kings Oak0Kingsway East3Slide12

Kingsway West

1

Kosciusko

0

La Salle

1

Lafayette Square

0

Lewis Place

2

Lindenwood

Park

0Mark Twain3Mark Twain I-70 1McKinley Heights1Midtown1Mount Pleasant2Near N. Riverfront0North Hampton0North Point2North Riverfront0O'Fallon5O'Fallon Park-2Old North St. Louis3Patch1Peabody-Darst-Webbe1Penrose6Penrose Park-2Princeton Heights1Riverview0Shaw1Skinker-DeBaliviere

1South Hampton0Southwest Garden0St. Louis Hills0St. Louis Place3The Botanical Garden0The Gate District1The Greater Ville5The Hill0The Ville1Tower Grove E.1Tower Grove Park0Tower Grove S.3Vandeventer2Visitation Park0Walnut Park E.3Walnut Park W.4Wells-Goodfellow4West End3Willmore Park0Wydown-Skinker0Total114Slide13

Method 1

Method 3Slide14
Slide15

Sourceshttp://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/29/2965000.htmlhttp://

stlcin.missouri.org/census/cen_city_comp.cfm

http://

www.zillow.com/local-info/MO-Saint-Louis/

http

://

www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.shtml