PACS 4500 Senior Seminar in Peace and Conflict Studies - PowerPoint Presentation

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PACS 4500Senior Seminar in Peace and Conflict Studies

Death from Above:Drone Strikes by the United States in the Global War on TerrorismBy John Wilson

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Overview of Principle Parties / Interest Groups

2. Civilians

Effected by strikes

1. Anti – Western

Extremists

1. The United States Government

4. Non-governmental

organizations / Think Tanks

3. Governments of countries where drone strikes occur

2. Non-governmental organizations / Think Tanks

3 . Allies of the United States

Drone and Weapons Manufacturers

3. Public Opinion of civilians in countries where strikes occur

1. Western media

2. Public Opinion of American citizens

A: Pro- Drone Strikes

B: Anti- Drone Strikes

Third Siders

Profiteers

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Timeline Sept. 11

th 2001 terrorist attacks prompt US invasion of AfghanistanTaliban are quickly defeated and ousted from powerTaliban fighters flee to neighboring Pakistan where the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) provide a safe refuge for Taliban fighters

The United States is faced with an insurgency where the enemy fighters have a safe refuge to fight from

The inability to decisively defeat the Taliban draw the U.S. into a war that increases Anti-Western radicalism around the world in countries such as: Somalia, Libya and Yemen.

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Timeline Continued

2004 – First drone strike in Pakistan successful kills enemy insurgents and drone strikes become an option for killing enemy across the legal border of Pakistan2008 – President Obama loosens the targeting requirements for drone strikes from “known enemy combatants” to “suspected enemy combatants.” As a result, drone strikes in Pakistan increase dramatically2013 – U.S. Air Force stops releasing public reports of drone strikes. Drone strikes continue to increase in Afghanistan and are

e

xpected to continue to increase as U.S. forces withdraw

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A. 1. The United State Government

It is the job of President Obama, as Commander and Chief of the U.S. Military, to defend the U.S. from terrorismDrone strikes are used to eliminate individuals suspected as a threat to the USADrone strikes are used to eliminate terrorist threats that are in areas inaccessible to U.S. Military forcesThe U.S.

government

views civilian casualties to be an unfortunate but acceptable side effect of the drone

strikesData provided by the U.S. government regarding drone strikes shows a high degree of accuracy and civilian casualties to be very low The attacks of September 11th

targeted American civilians and the grievances caused from those attacks allow the U.S. government to be less sympathetic to civilian deaths caused by drone attacksDrone Strikes are popular because they don’t require troop commitment and don’t directly endanger military personnel

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A. 2. Non-Governmental Organizations and Think Tanks

Pro-drone strike think tanks provide data that supports the use of drone strikesData shows high enemy kill rates and very low civilian death ratesThis conservative data is then used by members in the U.S. government and western media sources to garner support for drone strikes

Click here to go to Website

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A. 3. Allies of the United States

The governments of Allies to the U.S. involved in the Global War on Terrorism are supportive of drone strikesThe United Kingdom is the primary ally of the United States and has also conducted drone strikes with Royal Air Force aircraft The UK has had more terrorist attacks (although they have been much less deadly) on its soil by

anti–Western

extremists and therefore has a vested interest in fighting terrorism. The values, positions and interests of the UK are very similar (if not identical) to those of the United

States

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B. 1. Anti Western Extremists

Anti–Western extremists are the target of drone strikes by the United States These extremists usually practice a radical version of Islam that calls on its followers to attack Western countries in the name of religion

The deep rooted religious aspect of the extremists makes negotiation and collaboration very difficult

The main interest of these extremists is to eradicate all western influences from their Holy Land, which generally means Middle Eastern countries

Grievances against the US have resulted mainly from the oil industry

Anti-US grievances have been exacerbated by U.S. involvement in Middle Eastern conflictsRight: Abu Yahya al-Libi. Possible successor to Osama Bin Laden. Killed by a drone strike on June 4, 2012

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B. 2.

Civilians Effected by StrikesCivilian can be affected directly by the strikes by injury, loss of loved ones, displacement and loss of infrastructure, psychological damage, and death

Civilians effected

by the strikes

create and reinforce anti-U.S. grievances and are counter-productive to a counterterrorism initiative.

Left: A protest in reaction to drone strikes killing civilians

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B. 3. Governments of Countries Where Drone

Strikes OccurJust like the U.S

. government, governments in countries where strike occur have

a responsibility to protect their

citizens and drone strikes challenge that responsibilityDrone strikes challenge

the government’s sovereignty as they are conducted without the permission from the government in which they occurThe country most affected by drone strikes is Pakistan, where insurgents reside in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)The issue is not entirely clear cut for these governments: the Pakistani government is publicly against the attacks but is rumored to support the attacks in secretDrone strikes often occur in areas where the government does not have regional control and although governments may speak out against the drone strikes they may reluctantly support them in secret due to the radical threat to their own country

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B. 4. Non-Governmental Organizations and Think Tanks

Studies done by organizations not supported by the United States Government report high civilian death ratesA common figure for actual high value targets killed in drone strikes is less than 2%

These

groups are usually focused on seeking the truth in conflict and seeking an end to violence against innocent civilians.

“

Living Under Drones” is published by Stanford Law School and NYU school of Law Click here to view the websiteFor a report of every drone strike in Pakistan go to: drones.pitchinteractive.com

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3rd Sider – 1. Western M

ediaWestern media (the big six corporations that control about 90% of the media in the United States) tend to report on drone strikes in a manner that makes them seem effective in fighting the war on terrorReports are inline with U.S. government reports

Full info graphic

available at

frugaldad.com

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3rd Sider – 2

. Public Opinion of American citizensThe size and diversity of the U.S. citizenry cannot allow for a single analysis but lack of an opposition voice to drone strikes suggests that most people in the U.S. either support the drone strikes or are uninformed / apathetic

to the

issue

Factors that contribute to American public support of drone strikes include:Grievances resulting from the Sept. 11 attacksFear of another terrorist attack

Western media (both in portrayal of Anti U.S. radicals and effectiveness of drone strikes)Following Presidential leadership

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3rd Sider -

3. Public Opinion of Civilians in Countries Where Strikes Occur

This group is separate from civilians effected by the strikes in that that there are not directly

effected

by drone strikesS

ome civilians are in favor or drone strikes, especially if they are against extremists in their countryOverall, drone strikes decease public opinion of the United StatesA survey conducted by the Pew Research Center shows that public opinion of the U.S. has decreased with the increase in drone strikes74% of Pakistanis call America an enemyClick here to see the full report

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Profiteers: Drone and Weapons Manufacturers

General Atomic produces the Predator and Reaper drones, the main unmanned aerial vehicles that conduct these strikes. The Predator costs around $4 million and the Reaper about $30 million According to Opensecrets.org, General Atomics spent over $3 million on campaign contributions and lobbying in the U.S. in 2013. This influence can be seen as a reinforcement mechanism for drone attacks

Click here to go to website

Weapons costs for the payloads of drones range from $25,000 to $150,000. The most common weapon is the Hellfire missile produced by Lockheed Martin, a known heavy hitter in U.S. lobbying. Lockheed spend over $15 million lobbing in 2012

Click here to go to website

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Legend

Friend

Ally

Adversary

Enemy

Neutral

Other

(Mark, Client?)

Exacerbating Dynamic

Ameliorating Dynamic

Danger Point

Causality

Positive: an increase in A

causes an increase in B

Negative: an increase in A

causes a decrease in B

Party

A

Group

1

Party

B

Group

1

Negative feedback system (de-escalation)

or

Positive feedback system (escalation)

This legend will assist in understanding the dynamics in the following slides

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Drone Strike Dynamics: Main Conflict

The United States Government

Anti – Western

Extremists

Increase in grievances against the US

DRONE STRIKES

Drone strikes create a reinforcing feedback loop that increases the animosity between Anti-Western Extremists and the U.S. Government

The increase in grievances against the U.S. by those effected by drone strikes results in increased fear in the United States and thus more drone strikes

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Drone Strike Dynamics: Pro-Drone Strike Side

Drone

and Weapons Manufacturers

Allies of the United States

Non-governmental organizations / Think

Tanks

(Pro drone strikes)

Western media(Pro drone strikes)

Public Opinion of American citizens

The United States Government

This map shows a reinforcement of support from drone strikes within the pro-drone strike side

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Drone Strike Dynamics: Anti- Drone Strike Side

Anti – Western

Extremists

Civilians

Effected by strikes

Non-governmental organizations / Think

Tanks(Against drone Strikes)

Governments of countries where drone strikes occur

Dynamic Varies

Public Opinion of Civilians

in countries where strikes occur

This map shows a reinforcement of support against drone strikes on the anti- drone strike side.

The relationship between governments and anti-western extremists varies between ally and enemy.

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D

rone Strike Dynamics Across Sides

Public Opinion of American citizens

The United States Government

Civilians

Effected by strikes

Non-governmental organizations / Think

Tanks(Against drone Strikes)Dynamic Varies

This map shows that civilian casualties can decrease support of drone strikes in the United States though reporting from non-governmental organizations and think tanks that are against drone strikes. However this dynamic must be stronger than the reinforcing dynamic seen on the pro-drone strike slide

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Arguments and Counterarguments for Drone Strikes

Drone strikes do not risk U.S. military personnel U.S. military personnel are killed in retribution attacks after drone strikes. The recent increase in “insider attacks” against U.S. military personnel are a clear example Civilian casualty rates are misleading. Many “civilians” are enemy insurgents because bad guys tend to be surrounded by other bad guysWhile this is true, bad guys also surround themselves with innocent women and childrenThe blowback from civilian casualties is acceptable given the danger posed by the enemy killedThere has not been another successful attack on U.S. soil since Sept.11

th

and drone strikes have likely stopped such an attack. However, this does not mean that the world is safer due to the high number of drone strikes

Drone strikes have unfortunate consequences, but they are the best solution to the problem of the FATAThis is a popular argument but it is clearly flawed. One better solution would be to better support the Pakistani government in apprehending and prosecuting radicals who pose a threat to the United States

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Path Forward

Dealing with Drone Strikes can be categorized into three main areas:Ending drone strikes that kill civilians

Establishing alternatives to dealing with anti-western extremists

Deal with the negative consequences of drone strikes

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Ending Drone Strikes That Kill Civilians

Targeting requirements for drone strikes must include only killing known enemy combatants Military personnel on the ground must confirm the identity and location of enemy combatants before drone strike are authorizedThis means drone strikes can only occur in countries where the United States has committed troopsDrone strikes should only be used when piloted air support is not availableThere needs to be an overall reduction in the reliance of air support by U.S. military personnel in theater

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Alternatives to Drone Strikes

Alternatives to dealing with anti-western extremism must take a system based approach that looks at the core issues of the problem. Some examples of core issues are:Inequality and povertyInability for countries like Pakistan to secure tribal regions United States dependence on oilSome possible ways to deal with the above core issues: Humanitarian aid and economic development programs in areas that harbor anti-western extremists

Work with governments like Pakistan to secure lawless areas through internal support

Seek alternative sources of energy outside of the Middle East

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Dealing With the Aftermath

Drone strikes have caused considerable damage in foreign relations of the United States and people who have been negatively effected by drone strikesAction must be taken to prevent the spread of anti-western extremism as a result of drone strikesPossible actions:Trauma healing initiativesTruth and reconciliation commissionsCommunity dialogs