USA National Phenology Network Phenology From the Greek phainō meaning to show to bring to light make appear What is phenology Recurring plant and animal life cycle stages and their timing and relationships with ID: 804163
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Slide1
Erin PosthumusOutreach CoordinatorUSA National Phenology Network
Phenology
Slide2From the Greek
phainō
meaning "to show, to bring to light, make appear"
What is phenology?
Recurring
plant and animal life cycle stages and their timing and relationships with
climate and other abiotic factors
Slide3Slide4www.farmersalmanac.com/full-moon-names
/
November -Beaver Moon
February –
Worm Moon
May – Flower Moon
Photo Credits: Wikimedia Commons
September – Harvest Moon
Phenology is nature’s calendar
Slide5Harvest corn when oak leaves are the size of a mouse’s ear
Once lilac flowers have faded, plant squash and
cucumbersWhen crabapple and wild plum are at
budbreak, eastern tent caterpillars are hatching
Tradition and lore
Slide6“
Phenology
, in short, is a
‘horizontal science’ which transects all ordinary biological professions.
Whoever sees the land as a whole is likely to have an interest in
it.” Aldo Leopold
Slide7Why is phenology important?
Health
Resource management
Conservation
Agriculture
Understanding hazards
Recreation
Slide8Phenology as an indicator
“Phenology…is perhaps the simplest process in which to track changes in the ecology of species in response to climate change.” (IPCC 2007)
Slide9What drives phenology?
Tom Grey
Slide10What drives phenology?
Tom Grey
Slide11Photos: Alisa Hove, Jose
Montalva
What drives phenology?
Flowering phenology of elegant clarkia,
Clarkia
unguiculata
From the California Phenology Project
Slide12Invasives
change the
story
Slide13Phenology Shifts
CaraDonna
et al 2014
Slide14Range limits moved
6.1 (±
2.4) km per decade northward/m per decade up in elevation
Earlier
spring timing of 2.3 days per
decade62%
of 677 species showed
trends towards spring
advancement in phenology
Phenology Shifts
Parmesan and
Yohe
2003
Slide15Earlier leaf-out of trees
(
Menzel
1999, 2000, 2001, Carter et al 2017
)
Earlier flowering (Bowers 2007, Inouye 2008, Kimball et al. 2009, Crimmins et al. 2011)
Earlier arrival of migratory birds and butterflies
(
Ahas
1999, Bradley et al 1999, Roy and Sparks 2000, McKinney et al. 2012, Wood and
Kellermann
2015)
Earlier breeding and egg laying in birds and amphibians
(
Beebee
1995, Brown
et al. 1999)
Earlier animal emergence from hibernation
(
Inouye et al. 2000,
Forister
& Shapiro 2003,
Ozgul
et al. 2010)
Phenology Shifts
Slide16Phenological Mismatch
Graphic: nadiah.org/phenology.html
Both et al.
2006
Slide17Mayor et al 2017
Phenological Mismatch
Slide18Phenological Mismatch
Zimova
et al 2016
Slide19Photo: Juneauempire.com
Phenological Mismatch
Deacy
et al 2017
Slide20Heberling
et al 2019
Photo: Juneauempire.com
Phenological Mismatch
Photo:
Winterthur Garden Blog
Slide21Slide22McKinney, et al 2012
Photo
: Tom Grey
Slide23Broad-tailed hummingbird, Photo: Tom Grey
McKinney, et al 2012
Slide24Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
1980s
2000s
Kimball
et
al 2010
Cold-adapted plants
Sonoran Desert
Slide25Crimmins
et
al. 2009
1200 m elevation gradient
Finger Rock Trail
Slide261200 m elevation gradient
25 years later, 93 of 363 plants shifted
Finger Rock Trail
Crimmins
et
al. 2009
Slide27Southwest phenology = it’s complicated
Predicted Southwest climate
changes:
Warmer
Precipitation harder
to predictLonger growing seasons?More extreme heat eventsFreezes still possibleTake home: we need more data!
Slide28Citizen Science
Slide29Scientific research conducted, in whole or in part, by amateur or nonprofessional
scientists
What is citizen science?
Also known as:
crowd science
crowd-sourced science
civic monitoring
volunteer monitoring
networked science
participatory
monitoring/research
Slide30Known by other names throughout history
Term first entered into Oxford English Dictionary in
2014
Great
increase in programs in the
1990s – why?
Photo: Albert Herring, Wikimedia commons
History of citizen science
Slide31Jefferson
Powell
Thoreau
Early citizen scientists
Photos: Thoreau Powell, images from the National
Portrait Gallery,
Washington, Nina Leopold Bradley photo
from Journal Sentinel
files, Jefferson portrait by
Rembrandt Peale
Leopold-Bradley
Slide32Dramatic growth between 1997 to
2014 in
publications featuring citizen science
Follet
and
Strezov 2015, PLoS ONE
The increasing prevalence of
Cit
Sci
Slide33Significance
of citizen science to research greater than perceived
“Quality of data collected by volunteers, on a project-by-project basis, has generally been found as reliable as the data collected by professionals"
The value of citizen science
Cooper et al 2014,
PLoS
ONE
Slide34Volunteers contribute ~$2.5B annually to biodiversity research
The value of citizen science
Theobald et al 2015,
Biological Conservation
Slide35www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/ecosystems/bird-ranges.html
The value of citizen science
Slide362012.
Primack
, R. B, Miller-Rushing, A.J
7 day average
61
years
2-3 week average
1999. Bradley, N.L., Leopold, C.A., Ross, J.,
Huffacker
, W.
Sandhill
crane and geese
Flowering plants
Photos: Brian F Powell, Thoreau image from the National
Portrait Gallery,
Washington, Nina Leopold Bradley photo
from Journal Sentinel files
The value of citizen science
Day of Year
Slide37Citizen Science Opportunities
Slide38Slide39Advancing Science
Informing Management
Communicating & Connecting
Collect
•
Store • Sharephenology data & information
What is USA-NPN all about?
Slide4014,000
+
active observers
12,000+
active sites
15M+ records*
How do we get the data?
*As of
Mar
2019
Slide41Reproduction
Development
Activity
ANIMAL
Flowers
FruitsLeaves
PLANT
Observable life cycle events or PHENOPHASES
How do we observe phenology?
Slide42Types of Phenology Data Collected
Event
Activity
Reproduction
Development
Day of year
Status & Abundance
Status
Slide43Standardized protocols for
975
plant and
369
animal species*
Nature’s Notebook
: Protocols
*as of
2019
Slide44Paper datasheets and a web browser OR mobile apps
Nature’s Notebook
: Interface
Slide45Resources online and in print, including
an Observer Certification Course, coming this month!
Nature’s Notebook
: Training
Slide46Available at www.usanpn.org/pubs/reports
Nature’s Notebook
: Quality Control
Quality assurance – for the data coming in
Quality control – for the data in the National Phenology Database
Slide47Personalized phenology calendars and tools for data exploration of all data in the National Phenology Database
Nature’s Notebook
: Data Visualization
Slide48Data freely available for download
www.usanpn.org/results/data
Slide49Data Products
Slide50Data Products
Slide51Where do the data go?
Slide52Phenology observations help manage invasive species (Wallace et al. 2016, Chapman et al 20
14)
Warmer winters affect timing of spring leaf out in plants (Fu et al. 2015,
Mazer et al 2015)
Springs are arriving earlier (Allstadt
et al 2015) and the growing season is getting longer (Yue et al 2015)Spring is advancing in 75% of National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges; 50% of parks and refuges are experiencing springs that exceed 95% of historical conditions (Monahan et al 2016, Waller et al 2018)and more! Visit www.usanpn.org/nn/vignettes.
What we’ve learned
so far
Slide53Join Us!
Slide54Opportunities to get involved
Nature’s Notebook
sites:
Tohono
ChulTucson Botanical Gardens
Cienega CreekMission GardenWatershed Management Group
Slide55Flowers for Bats
Photo:
Merlin D. Tuttle, Bat Conservation
International
Adopt a Trail:
Molino Basin on Mt LemmonOracle State ParkPusch Peak TrailVentana CanyonPima CanyonPistol Hill
Papago Springs
Baby Jesus Trail (east of Catalina)
And others!
Slide56Nectar Connectors
Species in Arizona:
broadleaf
lupine (
Lupinus
latifolius)broadleaf milkweed (Asclepias latifolia)bull thistle (Cirsium vulgare)butterfly milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa)Canada thistle (Cirsium arvense)cardinalflower (Lobelia cardinalis)
common sunflower (
Helianthus
annuus
)
Coulter's lupine (
Lupinus
sparsiflorus
)
horsetail milkweed (
Asclepias
subverticillata
)
Missouri goldenrod (
Solidago
missouriensis
)
pineneedle
milkweed (
Asclepias
linaria
)
purple prairie clover (
Dalea
purpurea)rush milkweed (Asclepias subulata)showy milkweed (Asclepias speciosa
)spider milkweed (Asclepias asperula)
spotted joe pye weed (Eutrochium maculatum
)white heath aster (Symphyotrichum ericoides)
whorled milkweed (Asclepias verticillata)wild bergamot (Monarda
fistulosa)
Slide57Southwest Season Trackers
Photos: David Morin
Species in Arizona:
alkali
sacaton
(Sporobolus airoides)American tarwort (Flourensia cernua)black grama (Bouteloua eriopoda)broom snakeweed (
Gutierrezia
sarothrae
)
bush muhly (
Muhlenbergia
porteri
)
creosote bush (
Larrea
tridentata
)
fourwing
saltbush (
Atriplex
canescens
)
honey mesquite (
Prosopis
glandulosa
)
mariola
(
Parthenium incanum)mesa dropseed (Sporobolus flexuosus)purple threeawn
(Aristida purpurea)
soaptree yucca (Yucca elata)spike dropseed
(Sporobolus contractus)
tobosagrass (Hilaria mutica)
Slide58Green Wave
Species in Arizona:
boxelder
(
Acer negundo)
Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii)quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides)
Slide59Opportunities to get involved
Upcoming Trainings:
Nature’s Notebook General Training
Saturday, March 9th
at Mission Garden
Flowers for Bats TrainingApril (date TBD) at Tucson Botanical GardensLocal Phenology Leader Summer short courseSummer 2019 onlineLocal Phenology Leader Certification CourseFall 2019 online
Slide60Questions?
Contact
erin@usanpn.org
Slide61Sky Island Alliance Spring Assessments
Slide62Desert Tortoise Adoption Program