Aaron Reeves MS PhD Quantitative Epidemiologist Epidemiology Research Unit SRUC About EPIC EPIC is the Scottish Governments Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks Our aims T o provide an evidence base and scientifically informed advice to support Scottish Government policy reg ID: 647665
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "EPIC Use of Agriculture Data" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
Slide1
EPIC Use of Agriculture Data
Aaron Reeves, MS PhD
Quantitative Epidemiologist
Epidemiology Research Unit
SRUCSlide2
About EPIC
EPIC is the Scottish Government’s Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks
Our aims:
T
o provide an evidence base and scientifically informed advice to support Scottish Government policy regarding exotic diseases of livestock and poultry
To best prepare Scotland for the next major disease incursionSlide3
Collaborating institutionsSlide4
Module 1
Coordination, contingency and communication
Module 2
Animal movements
and risk
Module 3
Disease control options
Module 4
Forecasting and horizon scanning
Module 5
Knowledge exchange
Director and Administration
Steering Group
Knowledge Exchange CommitteeSlide5
EPIC outputs
High quality applied research
Policy briefs
Qualitative risk assessments
Quantitative analyses
In particular, simulation modelling of the spread and control of diseaseCost-benefit analyses and other economic assessmentsSlide6
Information regarding the
population at risk
and
key risk factors
underlies all epidemiologic investigationsSlide7
The scale of data used by EPICSlide8
The scale of data used by EPICSlide9
The scale of data used by EPICSlide10
Demographic and disease data currently held by EPIC
Annual agricultural censuses for Scotland
Annual agricultural censuses for England and Wales
Cattle population data for Scotland
Registered pig
keepers in Great Britain
Annual
sheep and goat inventory
Commercial
poultry registry
Recorded movements of cattle for all of Great
Britain
(Cattle Tracing System)
Recorded movements of sheep and pigs in Scotland
(
ScotEID
)
Recorded movements of sheep and pigs in England and Wales (AMLS)
Bovine viral
diarrhoea
(BVD) testing data for Scottish farms
List of linked holdings for purposes of cattle movement reporting
PRIMO-approved
pig pyramid premises
Red
Tractor quality assurance scheme members
Information on agricultural
holdings from the
Scottish Integrated Administration and Control System (IACS) (
forthcoming
)Slide11
Environmental and wildlife risk factors
Land cover types
Elevation
Precipitation
Temperature maps
Soil characteristics
Topographic shelter
Distribution and abundance of red deerAbundance distribution for midges and mosquitoes Slide12
Using EPIC data: Modelling FMDSlide13
Using EPIC data: Modelling FMD
How likely is FMD to spread, depending on where the incursion occurs?
Porphyre
et al., 2013,
PLoS
ONE
8(10): e77616 Slide14
Vaccination for FMD: How beneficial is it, given the site of initial incursion?
Porphyre
et al., 2013,
PLoS
ONE
8(10): e77616
Slide15
Impact of vaccination on FMD epidemic severity
Porphyre
et al., 2013,
PLoS
ONE
8(10): e77616
Incursions in southern Scotland:
Incursions in northern Scotland:Slide16
Bluetongue virus in Scotland
Bluetongue affects cattle and sheep
The bluetongue virus
is transmitted by midges
Climatic conditions influence
the vector population, thusaffecting spread of diseaseSlide17
Conditions appropriate for the spread of Bluetongue virus via midge activity
Bessell
et al., 2015, ISVEE ProceedingsSlide18
Data sought for the next EPIC
programme
Records of individual
sheep movements in Scotland (
ScotEID
)
Records of individual sheep movements in England and Wales (Defra)Frequent, timely updates of cattle movement information (ScotEID)Slide19
Conditions governing use of agricultural data by EPIC
Use of these data by EPIC is governed by (at present) nearly two dozen distinct contracts with data providers
It is not unusual for months/years to be needed to 1) secure contracts and/or 2) receive data
Key terms:
Data are to be handled securely at all times
Data can be used only for projects funded via EPIC
More specific terms may further restrict use within EPIC to particular projects or analyses
Details that could permit the identification of any individual person, farm, or business may not be published
Data providers will have the right to review reports, papers,
etc.
prior to publication
Breaching the terms of these agreements would
jeopardise
continued use of these data setsSlide20
Contributors to the EPIC data repository
Matthew Vernon
Julie
Stirling
Andrew Duncan
Sibylle MohrIan Hutchinson
Carla GomesThibaud PorphyreSema NickbakhshJim McLeodIain McKendrickGeorge Gunn
Scottish Government
Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA)
ScotEID
Red Tractor farm assurance scheme
Met Office
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
James Hutton Institute
EPIC personnel
Data providersSlide21
Thank you to
Thibaud
Porphyre
and Paul Bessell
for their contributions