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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetation in the Appalachian LCC Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetation in the Appalachian LCC

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetation in the Appalachian LCC - PowerPoint Presentation

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Uploaded On 2018-10-05

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetation in the Appalachian LCC - PPT Presentation

Patrick Jantz Tina Cormier Scott Zolkos Scott Goetz and the LCCVP Group NASCB July 10 2014 Missoula MT Photo credit Andri Kyrychok Appalachian LCC Appalachian LCC Summarize existing species distribution model results for the eastern US Iverson et al 2008 ID: 684705

models climate vegetation suitability climate models suitability vegetation species nps envelope process ecosystem results current modeled projections units projected

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Slide1

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetation in the Appalachian LCC

Patrick Jantz, Tina

Cormier, Scott Zolkos, Scott Goetz and the LCCVP GroupNASCB July 10, 2014Missoula, MT

Photo credit: Andri KyrychokSlide2

Appalachian LCCSlide3

Appalachian LCCSlide4

Summarize existing species distribution model results for the eastern U.S. (Iverson et al. 2008,

McKenney et al. 2011)Summarize projected climate in terms of historical range of variability for target NPS units

Ecosystem process models to gain insight into the nature of climate change induced stressorsBioclimatic envelope modeling for major vegetation typesBioclimatic envelope modeling for individual speciesApproachSlide5

Published species distribution models (Iverson

et al. 2008, McKenney

et al. 2011)Zolkos et al. in reviewDecline in habitat richness of 32 key tree speciesSlide6

Shenandoah Projected Climate

Results are similar for other NPS units Slide7

Ecosystem Process ProjectionsSlide8

Ecosystem Process ProjectionsSlide9

Ecosystem Process Projections

Results are similar for other NPS units Slide10

Reference or training data

: Field observations of target species or map of vegetation types, e.g. biomes, communities.

Predictors: stack of ecologically relevant variables (e.g., climate, soil type, etc.).Bioclimatic Envelope

Model (aka SDM)

Future suitability time 1

Future suitability time 2 . . . time

n

.

Estimates and projections

: apply models to current or projected conditions

Probability of presence or suitability estimates

Current suitabilitySlide11

Envelope Modeling for Vegetation Types

Our objective is

to use bioclimatic envelope models as “ecologically scaled metrics of the extent and nature of projected climate change” (Jackson et al. 2009) in support of vulnerability assessment.Response variable: NPS/USGS vegetation map gridded to 800m cells represents suitability for vegetation typesPredictors: NEXDCP30 gridded climate, STATSGO soils, potential relative radiation, twiSlide12

Cove Forest

Current Mapped

Current modeled – park onlyCurrent modeled – rangewide2050 modeled – park only

2050 modeled – rangewideSlide13

Cove ForestSlide14

Species

DistributionsSlide15

Preliminary results from veg. distribution models,

ecosystem process models, plus synthesis of existing distribution models point to significant shifts in forest communities as a result of climate change.Cove Forest models indicate that topoclimates

need better representationNext step to use these results to help identify areas within NPS units where species/communities may persist longest and which may be high management priorities.ConclusionsSlide16

Thanks!

Photo credit:

Andri KyrychokWe acknowledge support from NASA Climate and Biological Response grant NNH10ZDA001NSlide17

ExtraSlide18

INPUT: Fine scale NPS vegetation map represents ES suitability

INPUT: Bioclimatic variables (e.g., max temp of warmest month)

Use veg classification to calculate %cover in each larger pixel

+

OUTPUT: ES-level %cover/habitat suitability mapSlide19

Species Level Mapping:

Sugar MapleSlide20

Recent Historical Trends

10

year moving average of annual minimum temperatureSlide21